NAOS
Well-Known Member
I don’t think we’re a team that applies a lot of foul pressure.
Game Thread Jun 08, 2021 08:00PM MT: Jazz vs. Clippers - Game 1
- Thread starter Game Threads
- Start date
Added to Calendar: 06-08-21
The Clippers looked like absolute **** against the Mavs. We have ****ing Donovan Mitchell. Wake the **** up. We ARE the favorites to win the West. We are the team to beat. We will win this series in 5 games. It all starts tonight with a double digit win. **** all this noise.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
We hear you.
My feelings on this are complicated and not entirely settled. It's been a tough ride. After our two finals appearances, I had assumed we'd get back to things like the WCF and that never happened again (with that team) and then we ended that era getting bounced in the first round 3 years in a row. We had our nice WCF run in '07 and there's a depressing component of knowing that, had we been able to win 3 more games, we would have won it all that year. We then haven't been able to advance out of the second round. We got bumped by the Lakers initially, then I think we met them in the first round after that point. We're going to ignore our first round sweep at the hands of the Spurs. When we played the Clippers in 2017, I was nervous. Definitely thought we could win, but got really nervous before game 1 and when Gobert went down like 15 seconds into the game, I thought 'well, next year, I guess.' Pulling that out was great, but then swept by Golden State. I was more hopeful we could compete more because we were able to play and matchup better against them in the regular season. The next year I was hopeful we could beat OKC, but after the first game that we lost I felt we were too outmatched by star power. We met Houston in the second round and I had wanted to face them in a 1/8 matchup the whole season before we went on our tear. I thought psychologically they were fragile and thought we'd have a good chance at an upset. I think we won game 2 and that seemed to switch the momentum, then we got wiped out in game 3. The next year wasn't great. Denver series was disappointing.
But now? I kinda feel the same way about this series as I did against LA in 2017 and against OKC in 2018. Maybe I worry about star power kicking into gear and us folding mentally. That's my biggest fear. With the Grizzlies it was about staying engaged, with the Clippers it will be about staying confident. If we can come out and punch them hard in the first game, then I think that will calm any nerves we have and carry us through the rest of the series. My biggest fear is putting ourselves in a position where we doubt ourselves and then start playing timid and stupid. I think we would have beat LAC last year. They're not tough mentally at all, but they're not consistently weak. They can certainly peak on that end in this series before falling flat in the future. They can't be consistently tough. If we put them on their heels from the get go, we'll get the major psychological advantage, and it will cut both ways. But if we don't come out hard and hold the first two games, that momentum can swing and they can get confident while we go into a shell. I don't know what to predict. We can definitely win this, and we can win it easy. If things align right, we could go 4-1. But we could also botch this. In any case, we should be going farther than we have previously, and I have a hard time thinking, if we lost, that we only win 2 games.
I don't like game that I'm nervous about. The idea of facing Dallas would be like me watching Memphis. When we lost game 1, I still thought we'd win, and it sucked, but I could just lay back (sort of, maybe I'm saying that in hindsight). I'd like us to be up 2-0 by Thursday.
But now? I kinda feel the same way about this series as I did against LA in 2017 and against OKC in 2018. Maybe I worry about star power kicking into gear and us folding mentally. That's my biggest fear. With the Grizzlies it was about staying engaged, with the Clippers it will be about staying confident. If we can come out and punch them hard in the first game, then I think that will calm any nerves we have and carry us through the rest of the series. My biggest fear is putting ourselves in a position where we doubt ourselves and then start playing timid and stupid. I think we would have beat LAC last year. They're not tough mentally at all, but they're not consistently weak. They can certainly peak on that end in this series before falling flat in the future. They can't be consistently tough. If we put them on their heels from the get go, we'll get the major psychological advantage, and it will cut both ways. But if we don't come out hard and hold the first two games, that momentum can swing and they can get confident while we go into a shell. I don't know what to predict. We can definitely win this, and we can win it easy. If things align right, we could go 4-1. But we could also botch this. In any case, we should be going farther than we have previously, and I have a hard time thinking, if we lost, that we only win 2 games.
I don't like game that I'm nervous about. The idea of facing Dallas would be like me watching Memphis. When we lost game 1, I still thought we'd win, and it sucked, but I could just lay back (sort of, maybe I'm saying that in hindsight). I'd like us to be up 2-0 by Thursday.
Giving Kawhi the mid-range means this series is over in 5 and not in a good way.
And for the record “there is no way that the Jazz go down 2-0 with or without Conley” is very irrationally overconfident.
DasJazz
Well-Known Member
That was one helluva Jekyll and Hyde post.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
Get ready. The question is merely whether Kawhi gets his first choice or second choice of locations in the midrange. And, from there, it comes down to his shooting percentage and the speed with which he makes a decision on whether to shoot or pass....
We simply don’t have the personnel to deny him his first or second choice. And he’s been masterful passing out of the double team.
Added to all of this: they’re going to go small and pull Rudy out of the paint as much as possible.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
It’s hard to use the regular season matchups against the Clippers as a model for how this series will go because they really only played one or two games against one another at full health. The better model would be to look at how we played against PHX, since they, too, have two masterful playmaker-scorers that like to operate out of the midrange.
Go back and watch those games. You can literally see—very plainly—Booker catch the ball beyond the 3pt line, surmise that a 3pt shot is not readily available, and then choose a spot in the midrange that he wanted to get to. The bottom line is that he got to that spot pretty much all the time. And we know what CP does.
The jazz will need to give Kawhi and PG different looks. I expect to see some more zone. I hope the jazz get more physical and get LAC deeper into the shot clock + off their preferred spots. They need to make the refs blow the whistle and establish the physical limits. If LAC is hitting a high percentage of threes (as they do) or gliding into the midrange with 12 seconds left on the shot clock.... then we are not in good shape.
Go back and watch those games. You can literally see—very plainly—Booker catch the ball beyond the 3pt line, surmise that a 3pt shot is not readily available, and then choose a spot in the midrange that he wanted to get to. The bottom line is that he got to that spot pretty much all the time. And we know what CP does.
The jazz will need to give Kawhi and PG different looks. I expect to see some more zone. I hope the jazz get more physical and get LAC deeper into the shot clock + off their preferred spots. They need to make the refs blow the whistle and establish the physical limits. If LAC is hitting a high percentage of threes (as they do) or gliding into the midrange with 12 seconds left on the shot clock.... then we are not in good shape.
If they hit consistently from outside (which they can), then this could work well for them. If they go cold for any duration of time, however, this could get ugly quick. But if they're pulling Rudy out to make him ineffective in the paint, then my out of the box counter would be having Rudy go man-to-man on Kawhi.
I'd say the biggest difference, which is what ultimate has made the back-breaker against Phoenix, is that they don't have someone throwing lobs to an Ayton with each contest. This is countered by better/more three point shooting, though. But the most deadly issues for us against Paul has been the midrange combined with the Ayton/Capela lob that puts Rudy in no-man's land.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
I certainly wouldn’t rule that out. But I don’t think it’s likely to be a good option for more than a few possessions. It might be a good wrinkle, though.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
Zubac isn’t a lob threat, but he can punish you on the offensive glass very much like Ayton did.
The last 3 times we've made it to the second round we've had to start the series without our starting point guard. This year with Conley, 2017 with George Hill (toe) and 2018 with Rubio (hamstring). I believe Hill and Rubio both missed the entire series. Just really tough luck.
Need.