2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)

[homeytennis]

Has anyone done a statistical study like 538 or some outfit like that on the current NBA model on the efficiency of drafting kids with one or two years of college? It seems to me that a lot these guys wash out or are disappointments. I wonder if the NBA went to a model like the NFL uses if the results would be better. It seems like there are a lot of Trey Lyles populating NBA rosters.

 

[Ineptimusprime]

I kind of agree with you on Ayayi. He just seems "meh" at everything. I like Reaves better than him.

I'll have to look into Garrett more, but he seems like a redundancy if we were to get Delon Wright -- maybe a poor man's Delon Wright (based on college stats) -- especially if the Jazz still like Forrest? Why not swing for another big wing or skilled big?

I don't necessarily agree we have to just find the best length/athletes at this point. We've got to balance athleticism with feel for the game, at least as long as we retain Quin (he's not going to be giving serious minutes to guys who don't pressure the other team's defense). I think getting guys who feel the game in a superior way is another path to getting players who outperform their draft position. (I'm not saying anything about Garrett's feel for the game; I don't know enough yet.)

Garrett is a long, athletic 6’5 guy that played as a PG and SG at KU. He can defend 1-3 really well (at least in college). He was the Naismith defensive player of the year his junior year. Knock has always been his shooting, but he got it up to around 35% his senior season, and he’s 22, which isn’t ancient, but not ideal.

He’s a guy you throw on a Jamal Murray and just tell him to pester the **** out of him. He’s somewhere between a Matisse Thybulle and Jrue Holiday (not saying talent or impact, just the archetype of player). Totally worth buying a late second.

I think the biggest things this team is missing is someone that can defend 1-3, and 2-4 or even just 3-4. I think a Marcus Garrett and Herb Jones are just what the Dr. ordered. Young guys who can fill a role and will understand their role,

This assumes we are running it back. To me, it’s close to an ideal outcome.

Wright and Garrett might be a little redundant, but Wright is a guy you know is an NBA rotation guy that fills a need. Garrett is a “hope it pans out.” And if they both hit, having two versatile 6’5 dudes is a good problem to have.

 

[jom2003]

Thor is a bit of a project. Very young. Very raw. I don't think you can compare him to Murphy or Jones. Drafting Thor would be a lot like drafting Josh Smith out of high school.

Thor is basically a makeup for our mistake of not drafting McDaniels last year.

 

[jom2003]

I’d much rather be trying to teach an athlete how to shoot than try to teach a shooter how to be an athlete (impossible).

The Georgis Niang experiment. Spending three years trying to teach a non-NBA athlete on how to be a NBA athlete, only for it to blow up right in front of their faces. Hope the new FO learn their lesson from the DL era.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Georgis Niang experiment. Spending three years trying to teach a non-NBA athlete on how to be a NBA athlete, only for it to blow up right in front of their faces. Hope the new FO learn their lesson from the DL era.

Niang cost nothing to develop lmao. He was a huge success and a great player for the Jazz this year. Not sure what lesson you think the Jazz learned.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Niang cost nothing to develop lmao. He was a huge success and a great player for the Jazz this year. Not sure what lesson you think the Jazz learned.

That spending years to develop a 9th man that was absolutely terrible in the series they lost (not coincidentally) was not worthy of the effort.

And what do you mean he cost nothing? He took up a spot in the rotation which definitely was an opportunity cost for developing anyone else or pursuing someone else.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

That spending years to develop a 9th man that was absolutely terrible in the series they lost (not coincidentally) was not worthy of the effort.

And what do you mean he cost nothing? He took up a spot in the rotation which definitely was an opportunity cost for developing anyone else or pursuing someone else.

This is really weird scapegoating. Just because Niang played poorly in the final series doesn't mean he was a bad player and a waste. Teams can develop or sign more than one player for that role. He isn't the reason the Jazz lost in anyway

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Niang was a 40% 3pt shooter the last two seasons and was actually a positive defender this year on a minimum deal and we complain about him lmao

 

[idiot]

Has anyone done a statistical study like 538 or some outfit like that on the current NBA model on the efficiency of drafting kids with one or two years of college? It seems to me that a lot these guys wash out or are disappointments. I wonder if the NBA went to a model like the NFL uses if the results would be better. It seems like there are a lot of Trey Lyles populating NBA rosters.

I'm sure almost every team does this, and probably some public people too.

If you want to do it, I've made it really easy for you with the analysis I posted a few days ago showing how successful each draft pick (placed in its relative context) has been over the last 10 years. All you'd have to do it add years of college data for each draft pick and then run an equation or two to compare results. It would probably take less than 3 hours if you're willing to do it.

 

[idiot]

That spending years to develop a 9th man that was absolutely terrible in the series they lost (not coincidentally) was not worthy of the effort.

And what do you mean he cost nothing? He took up a spot in the rotation which definitely was an opportunity cost for developing anyone else or pursuing someone else.

Can't go with you on this one. By jom2003's logic, which he's been remarkably (and admirably) consistent with as long as I can remember him commenting here, the only players we should go after are superior athletes for their position, preferably young and long, basically the Orlando Magic model. Someone like Ingles would surely not qualify under his vision, and his poor playoffs the last couple years would be evidence that we held onto him for 2-3 years too long. Not sure why you're eager to validate his thought process.

(If I'm misunderstanding jom2003's philosophy, I'm open to correction.)

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Butler has been cleared by the NBA. Hopefully his stock is down enough we can snag him. I think he’s going to be solid from day one.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Can't go with you on this one. By jom2003's logic, which he's been remarkably (and admirably) consistent with as long as I can remember him commenting here, the only players we should go after are superior athletes for their position, preferably young and long, basically the Orlando Magic model. Someone like Ingles would surely not qualify under his vision, and his poor playoffs the last couple years would be evidence of why we held onto him for 2-3 years too long. Not sure why you're eager to validate his thought process.

(If I'm misunderstanding jom2003's philosophy, I'm open to correction.)

I’m saying nothing about jom whose points I only rarely subscribe. I am under no illusion that you can have perfect depth of perfect bodies and perfect skill sets.

But the lack of depth (or breadth) perhaps was a fundamental component of the collapse in games 5 and six since they could not answer small ball at all. Some of this is for sure on Quin.