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At the 1/4 Season Mark, How Are We Doing?

Avery

Avery

Well-Known Member
It's been a weird season so far - and one that has been frustrating as a fan to where one would think we were doing awful when at a high-level, we're not in that bad of a place.

Toplines:

- Record is 14-7 (three more home games than road so far)
- #2 in +/- behind GSW
- Strength of schedule is on the lower side with the caveat that this becomes more pronounced as data matures
- #3 seed in the west with a three game lead on #4
- Third best record in the league

Looking at that viewpoint, doesn't look too bad. That said, some definite pain points:

- Struggled in close games and losing to inferior teams
- Poor shooting performances from our guards
- Turnover issues
- Low offensive rebounds and giving away too many as well

Some quick team awards:

- Most Valuable Player: Rudy Gobert. Leading the league in boards and still delivering all-world defense. Offense is simply what it always as is perimeter defense (biproduct of the system)
- Most Improved Player: Bojan Bogdanovic. Not a lot of candidates to be honest. Bojan's shooting percentages are all up this year and he's been the most consistent player night in and night out
- Most Disappointing Player: Donovan Mitchell. Hurts to write this, but is what it is when you're a max player and the face of the franchise. His scoring is down a bit which I'm fine with, but his shooting percentages, especially from three have been abysmal. Add to that his decision making and increased turnover rate and you have a guy that doesn't deserve to make the ASG this year.
- Best New Player: Rudy Gay. Again, not a lot of options, but Rudy's shooting has been a welcome bench addition especially in games where JC has been frigid

The season is still young, but it's obvious so far that GSW/PHX are the class of the league and we'd lose a series against each of them if the playoffs started today - but they thankfully don't. The main things I'll be looking for the next 20 games are:

- Western Conference-heavy schedule. We've played the East quite a bit, but we'll ramp up against our conference opponents more and more which is important for tiebreakers. On that note...
- Beat the teams you should beat. We haven't done this so far effectively. There should be no reason to lose to the Spurs or Pelicans as those L's matter when things get close.
- Improve our efficiency. Make the extra pass. Don't jack up a 28 foot off-balance three with 16 seconds on the shot clock. Live to play another way.
- Stay healthy. This is honestly the most important thing we have outside of W/L. It's a long season and a game of attrition; get your best players to the finish line and anything can happen especially in a superstar-dominated league.

Overall, I'd give us a B. Things could definitely be better, but they could also be a whole lot worse. But if we can net 55 wins and go into the postseason healthy, we've got a chance.
 
- 14-7 is on pace for a 55 win season, so that's not too bad, however we have had the 2nd easiest schedule according to espn.com, so not great.
- Our expected win total, according to espn.com is 17-4, which means we've gotten a little unlucky this season. If we were 17-4, I think we would all be happy, so I guess things aren't that bad.
- From NBA.com we have the top offensive rating, 9th best defensive rating, 2nd best net rating, top reb %, 2nd best efg%, we are 24th in the league in ast/to ratio. The general thought was that our defense would get better with Rudy Gay and Whiteside replacing Niang and Favors, but that hasn't been the case yet (obviously not much data with Gay yet).

We haven't played many good teams at full strength, so I think that makes our assessment of where we are at a little difficult. From my eyes I haven't seen much experimentation from Quin or growth from our players to have super high expectations. I also am not discouraged by our poor performances to think this team is any worse than last year.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
- 14-7 is on pace for a 55 win season, so that's not too bad, however we have had the 2nd easiest schedule according to espn.com, so not great.
- Our expected win total, according to espn.com is 17-4, which means we've gotten a little unlucky this season. If we were 17-4, I think we would all be happy, so I guess things aren't that bad.
- From NBA.com we have the top offensive rating, 9th best defensive rating, 2nd best net rating, top reb %, 2nd best efg%, we are 24th in the league in ast/to ratio. The general thought was that our defense would get better with Rudy Gay and Whiteside replacing Niang and Favors, but that hasn't been the case yet (obviously not much data with Gay yet).

We haven't played many good teams at full strength, so I think that makes our assessment of where we are at a little difficult. From my eyes I haven't seen much experimentation from Quin or growth from our players to have super high expectations. I also am not discouraged by our poor performances to think this team is any worse than last year.
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Agree with most of this.

I think a B-. If we had pulled out 2 of the 3 bad losses we've had this year I could raise the grade significantly.

Rudy Gay and Whiteside seem to be great additions. Paschall is solid. Big plus there.

This year is about getting ready for the playoffs... and I have seen us try to do more switching and zone here and there. We just haven't done it well. Some minuses:

- Already abandoning the strategy of sitting Mike on 1 of the 2 games on back to backs... hopefully it was a one game outlier.
- Starting to rely more on Joe again to fill the missing holes... can't wear him out... it is fine thus far.
- Not really testing any small ball lineups yet unless completely necessary. Clearly weren't prepared when we did.
- I'm slightly disappointed they have chosen to give Forrest the development minutes over Butler... or that they just didn't go get a vet to play that role for 3-10 minutes a night (langston Galloway is the guy I'd sign).
- End of roster "meh" stuff. Picking up Udoka's option... why? Its close to a minimum but why waste the roster spot, development time, and anchor yourself to another year of the project? Miye Oni... just release him for a better project or an actual vet that can play if needed.

December could be brutal... especially with how Minnesota is playing right now and the fact that they gave us issues last year. I think we have to abandon the idea that we could be the #1 seed this year and plan to be healthy. Already like 5 games out and that delta is likely to grow over the next month.
 
We're doing almost exactly the same as last year, which should be expected because we're almost exactly the same team. Record isn't more predictive than point differential and SRS.

The minutes that are not doing as well are the starters and super bench lineup with Gobert and Conley. Not worried about the starters, they've proven their value over several years. Not worried about the bench unit either because the problems have only really happened when a player is out and we've had a fill in. OTOH, the Whiteside minutes have been much better than the Favors minutes and I do believe a lot of that is due to Whiteside being a much better player. So overall I think I'm actually feeling better about this year's team than last, especially with the way Gay is playing.

Ultimately, however, I think we'll likely see the same thing happen in the playoffs...both good and bad. Teams will try to switch against us, Mitchell will murder them again like he has the past two seasons. Defensively our perimeter defense will get exposed again and if the other team can make it punishing for Gobert to help we're toast. Doesn't mean we can't win. The field is very open as far as I'm concerned, we're one of teams with a 10-25% chance at winning. I would like our chances a little bit more with another defender on roster.
 
As we saw last night, Joe thrives with a center that can effectively pick and roll. Rudy is excellent at it, and Whiteside is marginal. Favors was great, which made Joe a great weapon off the bench. Joe needs to start and play with Rudy more. He is the one guy that will consistently get Rudy the ball for easy baskets in the post.
 
TheGoldStandard said:
As we saw last night, Joe thrives with a center that can effectively pick and roll. Rudy is excellent at it, and Whiteside is marginal. Favors was great, which made Joe a great weapon off the bench. Joe needs to start and play with Rudy more. He is the one guy that will consistently get Rudy the ball for easy baskets in the post.
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When we traded for Conley and signed Bogdanovic, we were all interested in seeing the Mike / Don / Joe / Bojan / Rudy lineup, but that lineup almost never played together, and still doesn't. We inserted Royce into the starting lineup and never really experimented with the other one. It'd be nice if we ran with it for a little bit as I think the synergy between all the different guys would allow us to play well enough to compensate for what we're thinking the marginal upgrade in defense is.
 
Way underwhelming for most of it, even when winning, but at least for now there's been 2 games where one could watch and remember the good parts of last season, so maybe there is hope for them to get things going. Still, most of the same issues of last year, so so far hope is of being like last season good, but with last season flaws
 
Jazz are effectively a top-5 team in the league and should be able to cruise this year to a top-3 seed in the WC. They still struggle with long, athletic, switchy defensive teams like Miami. Joe Ingles and Royce O'Neale are really system players whose value drops against switching defense. Look for Trent Forrest to stay in the regular rotation for this reason.

The matchups that matter most are the Warriors and Suns right now.

I like the way that Jordan Clarkson is trying to fit in and narrow his shot selection in recent games, and I love the way Rudy Gay can get his shot off over defenders. Jazz are a bit more balanced and a bit better than last season.

Jazz should really be 16-5 if it weren't for two really bad referee mistakes that cost the Jazz wins against the Pels and Grizzlies.
 
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TheGoldStandard said:
As we saw last night, Joe thrives with a center that can effectively pick and roll. Rudy is excellent at it, and Whiteside is marginal. Favors was great, which made Joe a great weapon off the bench. Joe needs to start and play with Rudy more. He is the one guy that will consistently get Rudy the ball for easy baskets in the post.
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I’m starting to feel this way. Kinda hard to move Royce to the bench because that gives away some of his best impact on the game (guarding the other teams’ better players)—but it might still be the right equation, all things considered.
 
I feel like a lot of the intangibles are in the C- zone, but the final grade gets pulled up by the easy schedule and overall win%. A lot of these bad intangibles have been exposed during the clutch minutes, and you see how much this group still needs to come together.
 
I’ve enjoyed watching Mike this year. And Forrest. I’m always intrigued when Gay checks in.
 
And since gloating is allowed on the internet, let me remind you all that I was the first person to tell y’all who the Suns were. If I were a neutral observer of the NBA, I’d be watching them and the Raptors.
 
NAOS said:
I’m starting to feel this way. Kinda hard to move Royce to the bench because that gives away some of his best impact on the game (guarding the other teams’ better players)—but it might still be the right equation, all things considered.
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Royce has the worst PER out of any player that gets reasonable minutes, he isn't the defender people think he is. The fact is, this teams gets completely exploited by every backcourt in the league, and Royce in the lineup really makes no difference in that regard. And what he provides on offense just doesn't move the needle much. He can't shoot off the dribble, has to be wide open to make a 3, and is not a great ball handler or passer. He developed great, and would be fine as a limited bench player, but he just doesn't bring a lot to the table.

That isn't to say he is bad, just very limited, and definitely not starting material.
 
NAOS said:
I’m starting to feel this way. Kinda hard to move Royce to the bench because that gives away some of his best impact on the game (guarding the other teams’ better players)—but it might still be the right equation, all things considered.
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Maybe we can get away with traps early on, till we make the first subs ? Because if yes, he could get his 28 to 30 ish minutes off the bench and be a closer anyway, just a matter of adjust the lineups as to not be taking Gobert away from Ingles (which could/should be done whether Joe starts or not)
 
TheGoldStandard said:
Royce has the worst PER out of any player that gets reasonable minutes, he isn't the defender people think he is. The fact is, this teams gets completely exploited by every backcourt in the league, and Royce in the lineup really makes no difference in that regard. And what he provides on offense just doesn't move the needle much. He can't shoot off the dribble, has to be wide open to make a 3, and is not a great ball handler or passer. He developed great, and would be fine as a limited bench player, but he just doesn't bring a lot to the table.

That isn't to say he is bad, just very limited, and definitely not starting material.
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I disagree with a lot of this. I think he’s a good piece; we need his impact. Nobody besides Joe could have me thinking Royce should be dislodged from his spot
 
NAOS said:
I disagree with a lot of this. I think he’s a good piece; we need his impact. Nobody besides Joe could have me thinking Royce should be dislodged from his spot
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Swapping Royce for Joe in the starting lineup, even limiting Joe's minutes to preserve his old ***, would be a net win for us. Joe is just so much better in the starting lineup and having another playmaker besides Conley makes a big difference.


Note I am not recognizing Mitchell as a playmaker because, well, he isn't. He is a scorer who is willing to pass. Joe and Conley are actual playmakers, really the only 2 on our team right now. Which is why it is a travesty they aren't putting more into Butler, imo.
 
I think they are doing just fine. Gonna finish top 3 in the west. Should be better in the playoffs with the new additions. Decent chance at a championship imo. All you can ask for.

Btw I heard on the radio that Rudy Gay is shooting over 50% from 3 and from the field. That is some unexpected fantasticness. I think he will have a huge positive impact on the team and will be a difference maker in the playoffs. Would be a great small ball 5.
 
NAOS said:
I disagree with a lot of this. I think he’s a good piece; we need his impact. Nobody besides Joe could have me thinking Royce should be dislodged from his spot
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So you think his PER is lying? Royce's defense and lack of size at the 3/4 makes up for his limited offense? Royce is starting material? He is a good ball handler and passer? What exactly do you disagree with?

With two small (for NBA standards) players in Conley and Mitchell, w3 need more size in the starting lineup. 6'4" Royce at the 3/3 exacerbates the issue.
 
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