2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Handlogten's Heros]

At risk of sounding like a complete dumbass....I don't think Scoot is worth breaking the bank for. He could be the next Luka....but I see him more like an average top 3 pick and no longer a generational PG prospect. The lack of development year to year is a worry for me as is his playstyle.

I would not break the bank… but 3 firsts plus our own first this year in the 11-14 range is a worthwhile investment. I’m a believer. Breaking the bank is like 5 firsts imo.

I think I’m general teams are either not sellers at any price… or it would be a few picks. I think going from 10/11 to 2 is likely a non starter even with a few picks… it’s just too big of a jump back. If you landed 4 and sent a couple firsts I could see that happening.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I would not break the bank… but 3 firsts plus our own first this year in the 11-14 range is a worthwhile investment. I’m a believer. Breaking the bank is like 5 firsts imo.

I think I’m general teams are either not sellers at any price… or it would be a few picks. I think going from 10/11 to 2 is likely a non starter even with a few picks… it’s just too big of a jump back. If you landed 4 and sent a couple firsts I could see that happening.

Jazz do have extra picks to burn. They can trade picks, whiff on picks and still come out great.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

There it is...


View: https://twitter.com/happypistonfan/status/1639313857519796239

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What I'm saying is, if you want to trade up to #2 you might need to offer #4 or #5 in this draft, plus future draft picks in return. The other team's rationale would be that they're already invested in a young, All Star-level lead guard. It could apply to a team like Charlotte, OKC or Detroit.

I understand… that’s why I said you might need a third team to participate. We will either end up top 4 or more likely 9-13. Even then the team might see an opportunity to go from 4th or 5th to 2nd and just do the deal themselves.

Basically the 6-15% chance we end up top 3 is going to be our best chance to get Scoot or Miller… I think trade up is a more unlikely set of circumstances that we don’t control.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Honestly DA is probably more likely to make a huge offer for Miller than Scoot.

 

[sip]

There it is...


View: https://twitter.com/happypistonfan/status/1639313857519796239

I'm still firmly on the GG bandwagon. I think he is going to be a star.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Honestly DA is probably more likely to make a huge offer for Miller than Scoot.

DA is unpredictable with a lot of this stuff… we just guess.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I'm still firmly on the GG bandwagon. I think he is going to be a star.

He has star potential. He needs to cut out the wild **** and play with his teammates, but if he does I don't think his floor is low.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

DA is unpredictable with a lot of this stuff… we just guess.

Unpredictable overall. But Miller is the Brown and Tatum archetype. And after how that worked out he has no reason to stop believing in that kind of player.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

DA seems to love him small to smallish guards. Was a part of getting Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, IT, Kyrie, Kemba just to name a few.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Unpredictable overall. But Miller is the Brown and Tatum archetype. And after how that worked out he has no reason to stop believing in that kind of player.

Is he? Tatum was an "alpha" ISO scorer. I wouldnt call him the same archetype as Miller.

Brown was more of an athlete project.

Dont really consider Tatum/Brown/Miller to be all that similar (at least as prospects). All 3 are pretty different.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I'm still firmly on the GG bandwagon. I think he is going to be a star.

I think he is boom or bust. If he ends up on a team like Charlotte then he’s Shabazz Mohammed. If he ends up here? Look the **** out because he will be held accountable here and he will be joining a culture stronger than the allure of his talent.

I could stomach him with the Jazz’s earliest pick because at least it’s a swing and the Jazz should make those. I would be pleased if they drafted him with the 2nd pick. I would be over the moon if they got him with the Sixers pick but it is inconceivable to me that he falls that far (though, maybe trading up from the Sixers pick is doable).

The talent is undeniable.

 

[KqWIN]

1. What on Earth are you trying to call me out on? I use eye test and stats as I see fit. This isnt a consistent thing, drafting/evaluating is tricky.

2. RIley Kugel is much bigger than Bailey. As a 2-guard Kugel has what I would consider solid size. He has a big frame and long arms. As a combo guard (gun to my head would label him a 2-guard with potential to develop combo skills) he's huge.

3. If you are attempting a third of your shot profile in the mid-range you are a mid-range dominant player by modern standards. This isnt the 90s. And when you watch Bailey you can clearly tell that is what he is most comfortable doing, even if he isnt that great at it. He played on a star loaded team so his volume from mid-range was less and he was able to get easy opportunities in the paint. Like I said, I commended him for fitting into a good team. You're acting like I said he was some trash can. He's just not worthy of being a first rounder until he shows more than being an average 6'3 guard with no standout NBA level ability.

4. He is small. IDK what you are so hard on this point of him not being small when he's clearly small. He's got narrow shoulders and short arms. I think Bailey is probably 6'3.5 at most in shoes w/ a 6'5 to 6'6 wingspan. Kugel will probably measure 6'5.5 in shoes w/ a 6'9 to 6'10 wingspan. Plus Kugel already has 20 lbs+ of frame over Bailey.

5. He isn't anywhere near Bufkin or JHS.

I'm acting like you called Amari Bailey a 6'3 mid range scorer with lackluster scorer and average defense. You continue to shrink him and act like mid range is the defining aspect of his game. You're evidence is that by "mostly" you do not actually mean "mostly" and by linking an article that directly contradicts that he is a mid range scorer. You can agree to disagree with the assessment that he is a strong defender and athlete, but it is a wide consensus that these are his strengths and defining aspects as a player. His mid range game is like the 10th most notable thing about him, and if you reduce him to a mid range scorer and ignore the aspects that he's actually good at it makes sense why you don't like him. Me personally, I am not throwing out the obvious NBA traits and focusing on one aspect of his game that isn't even a key aspect of his game at all.

About these measurements, you are really adamant that we know things that we do not know. If you want to obsess over measurables that are not publicly, go ahead I guess. I do find it funny that you are taking the weight thing to heart because that's what is listed, but when it comes to height you are at freedom to just make up whatever you want. Amari is not small by any means and tbh he looks bigger than Kugel just looking at the two. Even if he is 6'3 (doubt it) his physicality makes it obvious he can guard bigger guys in the NBA. He has a clear NBA frame, this is not contested just as his defense has never been contested by anyone but yourself. His standout abilities are exactly the ones outlined in the article that you linked. I point out these constant contradictions in your logic because they are contradictions. Even when the "evidence" you present argues against the claim you're making, you just pick one small aspect and then extrapolate it. Take this quote as "evidence":

I don’t have exact measurements for Bailey, but from the eye test, it’s pretty clear that he’s a big, physical guard and may end up being 6’5” or larger when he gets to the league. He looks to have long arms and a great frame for his age, and he moves with a fluidity that screams athlete. These are all things I like, and the cherry on top is that he’s a lefty.

Amari Bailey: Many Talents, Many Outcomes

Garbage Time Ghim is back from summer break and is ready to dive into one of the most exciting freshman in the Pac-12 and in the nation. "Let's Ride!" -Russell Wilson

www.noceilingsnba.com

 

[NUMBERICA]

DA seems to love him small to smallish guards. Was a part of getting Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, IT, Kyrie, Kemba just to name a few.

Kyrie and Smart are not smallish, but okay.

I would also argue that he has done well with those prospects because he is good at identifying good ones in the context of a market inefficiency.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

If we walked out of this draft with Cason and Miller, even if it came with less assets in the war chest going forward. We would be in great shape. If those two draft picks become what they could/should and everyone else continues their trajectory. That's a contender.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Is he? Tatum was an "alpha" ISO scorer. I wouldnt call him the same archetype as Miller.

Brown was more of an athlete project.

Dont really consider Tatum/Brown/Miller to be all that similar (at least as prospects). All 3 are pretty different.

You'd know better than me. I guess I'm just looking at size and position mostly.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Kyrie and Smart are not smallish, but okay.

I would also argue that he has done well with those prospects because he is good at identifying good ones in the context of a market inefficiency.

6'2 w/ a 6'4 wingspan for Kyrie isnt small?

Smart is 6'3 in shoes w/ a 6;9 wingspan and a 8'3 standing reach. I would consider that smallish, but of course he's built like a tank so it's a weird combination of lack of size and size.

 

[NUMBERICA]

(though, maybe trading up from the Sixers pick is doable).

Here’s the other trade up scenario that I think is totally in the realm of possibility: The DL Special.

I generally would advocate trading up into the late-teens using some of the Jazz’s player capital paired with the Sixers pick since I feel like that’s where there’s a potential tier drop.

Three of Wallace/Dick/Hendo/Black/GG would be a killer draft.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm acting like you called Amari Bailey a 6'3 mid range scorer with lackluster scorer and average defense. You continue to shrink him and act like mid range is the defining aspect of his game. You're evidence is that by "mostly" you do not actually mean "mostly" and by linking an article that directly contradicts that he is a mid range scorer. You can agree to disagree with the assessment that he is a strong defender and athlete, but it is a wide consensus that these are his strengths and defining aspects as a player. His mid range game is like the 10th most notable thing about him, and if you reduce him to a mid range scorer and ignore the aspects that he's actually good at it makes sense why you don't like him. Me personally, I am not throwing out the obvious NBA traits and focusing on one aspect of his game that isn't even a key aspect of his game at all.

About these measurements, you are really adamant that we know things that we do not know. If you want to obsess over measurables that are not publicly, go ahead I guess. I do find it funny that you are taking the weight thing to heart because that's what is listed, but when it comes to height you are at freedom to just make up whatever you want. Amari is not small by any means and tbh he looks bigger than Kugel just looking at the two. He has a clear NBA frame, this is not contested just as his defense has never been contested by anyone but yourself. His standout abilities are exactly the ones outlined in the article that you linked. I point out these constant contradictions in your logic because they are contradictions. Even when the "evidence" you present argues against the claim you're making, you just pick one small aspect and then extrapolate it. Take this quote as "evidence":

Amari Bailey: Many Talents, Many Outcomes

Garbage Time Ghim is back from summer break and is ready to dive into one of the most exciting freshman in the Pac-12 and in the nation. "Let's Ride!" -Russell Wilson

www.noceilingsnba.com

1. Again, I'm talking about NBA level. I commended Bailey for his ability to fit into a role and have good intangibles at a college level. I'm not saying he sucks *** just because he doesnt have NBA level abilities. I just dont think he has NBA level abilities at this point

2. Maybe you should get your eyes checked regarding size. But yes, I believe weight more than height for team submitted measurements. Players are much more incentivized to lie about height vs weight.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You'd know better than me. I guess I'm just looking at size and position mostly.

That’s the thing with DA… he’s done so many deals and he’s been around so long we can make an argument for a lot of different players types. I think he’s probably way more flexible than the box we put him in. Here is what I think I know about Danny:

1- he wants to get what he asks for in deals and can be stubborn.
2- he is patient as hell.
3- he is opportunistic.
4 he likes to make moves

I’m fairly convinced he’s a bit of a contrarian and takes a little joy in some of the drama… those are guesses though.