Its Time to Tank
- Thread starter Handlogten's Heros
- Start date
And that’s how it’s done
FrenchJazzFa
Well-Known Member
Will be tough to catch P0rotland but we can do it !
I did a little playful experiment about drafting between 8-10 (our pick upside), 11-13 (our pick downside and Minny pick upside) and 14-16 (Minny pick downside).
Between 1973-2022, 150 players were selected in each of those groups.
Few interesting observations from that dataset:
At the top of the draft (1-3) there are 21 HOF, 37 other All-NBA players and 21 additional All-Stars in that same timeframe... so the best odds of landing a star are natrually in that group with 52.7%. Still a cointoss though.
Between 1973-2022, 150 players were selected in each of those groups.
| Pick range | HOFers | Other min All-NBA | Other min All-Star | Total star players | Chance of landing a star |
| 8-10 | 4 (Parish, Sikma, McGrady, Pierce) | 15 | 13 | 32 | 21.3% |
| 11-13 | 4 (Wilkes, Malone, Miller, Kobe) | 5 | 14 | 23 | 15.3% |
| 14-16 | 4 (Drexler, Stockton, Hardaway, Nash) | 6 | 6 | 16 | 10.7% |
Few interesting observations from that dataset:
- Between 2003 and 2012 a total of 6 All-NBA (Bynum, Noah, DeRozan, George, Walker, Drummond) and 3 All-Stars (Iguodala, Lopez, Hayward) were selected in #8-10... but none have been selected in that range since
- In the last 10 years, #11-13 has been the best (1 All-NBA in Booker and 5 All-Stars in Lavine, Sabonis, Mitchell, SGA, Haliburton)... but only 1 All-NBA (Klay) and 0 All-stars were selected #11-13 in 2003-2012
At the top of the draft (1-3) there are 21 HOF, 37 other All-NBA players and 21 additional All-Stars in that same timeframe... so the best odds of landing a star are natrually in that group with 52.7%. Still a cointoss though.
SteakNEggs
Well-Known Member
Redundant but those wins last week are going to hurt. While they were fun wins, they were pointless wins.
Catching Portland will be impossible if they sit Dame. They have a pretty tough schedule.
Catching the Wizards and Pacers is possible. Think the Jazz have a ceiling as the 7th best odds of they lose our. Outside chance of catching the Magic as well.
Catching the Wizards and Pacers is possible. Think the Jazz have a ceiling as the 7th best odds of they lose our. Outside chance of catching the Magic as well.
With Hardy I’d like to think we’d have a higher than 50% chance hopefully…
I believe coaching and proper player development is much more important than people give it credit for. As is luck, with players landing in right places (and around right people) for them to thrive on and off court.
I'm looking at our schedule and it's going to be hard to lose @ SAS and home vs DEN when they are likely to be resting everyone.
Even if we are back to full strength I don't see us winning vs Phoenix or at Boston.
The other games, I think are all toss-ups depending on who we play those games.
So I think we go between 2-6 or 4-4 the rest of the way. I think we would have to lose out to catch Indy or Was.
Resting is a huge curveball. Who knows who will be resting for these schedules. Could be a big benefit to Utah or a huge thorn.
homeytennis
Well-Known Member
There are times like the first and third quarters vs the Bucks and the third quarter last night where we look like the worst team in NBA history.