I don't think you are putting enough focus on the rest of the west. Even if we are a better team I think we could have a worse record simply because the rest of the west has improved even more.
Griz- Between injuries to key guys and the Morant chaos they underachieved this year in my opinion. Next year I think we see a 60 win level dominance with the high end talent and depth that they have.
Nugs- I think we see a similar level of play next year.
Suns- I think they are a 50+ win team next year with the upside of 60 with really good health
Kings- I don't know if they have more wins next year but I think they will be a better team with Murray getting better in his second season and their core guys entering their prime.
Warriors- I think they snap back next year and are in that 50 win range with Wiggins and Payton back and some of the young guys ready to take on bigger roles.
Mavs- I have a feeling Luka and Kyrie are pretty frustrated right now so as long as they can re-sign Kyrie then I would expect both guys to come into next year ready to ball. At worst I think they are a .500 team next year with 50 win upside if things really click.
Clippers- With their depth and Ballmers willingness to spend to maintain that depth I think they are at worst a .500 team with 55 win upside if Kawhi and PG can play 65+ games together. Kawhi may have started slow this year but he played the best ball of his career offensively once January hit.
Thunder- 40 wins this year and there is no way that aren't at a minimum a 40 win team next year. They just have so much upside with their young guys so I think 50 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation.
Pelicans- 42 wins this year and that was with Ingram missing 37 games and Zion missing 53. If they are even somewhat healthy next year along with improvement from guys like Murphy, Jones and Daniels then 50 wins is certainly a possibility.
Wolves- With KAT missing 53 games and a little bit of locker room disfunction they still won 42 games this year. With their depth and star power I think that is probably a minimum number next year for them as well.
Out of those 10 teams I think there is a good chance that we see an improved win total from 8 out of 10 of them which obviously means more losses for other teams. The only team in that group that I see possibly cratering is the mavs because of the lack of quality depth but you are still talking about 9 good deep teams. That isn't even mentioning the lakers who will definitely still be in win now mode and the blazers who will be in that same mode if they keep Lillard.
The bottom line for me is we could improve quite a bit as an overall team with better depth and still take a pretty big step back in the win column even if we are relatively healthy. I think we are entering an era of depth in the nba that we have never seen. Even the bottom 4 teams this year which were the pistons, rockets, spurs and hornets already have some solid young building blocks not including this years picks. All 4 should be much better teams next year even if it doesn't lead to a lot more wins. I think the rockets upside becomes scary if they luck into Wemby. A frontcourt of Sengun, Wemby and Smith is some crazy length and skill.
So thinking on this... there is almost no way 8 out of 10 of these teams improve... its partly a zero sum game. I will address a few teams...
Nugs - its now stale... they have nothing to trade. MP Jr. is a walking red flag of injuries.
Suns - CP old, Cash strapped, KD is injury prone, they have no depth to cover their injuries
Kings - One of the healthiest teams all year... could improve but likely snap back to earth a bit.
Warriors - Major cap crunch coming. Green or Poole are on a different roster next year... They old AF... not sure why they are a whole lot better.
Mavs - Kyrie lol... they are relying on Kyrie...
Clips - Another year and another early exit. Injuries and aging. Just as likely to fall apart as to improve.
Thunder - Implementing a couple rookies with a bunch of other young players. who knows.
Pelicans - Zion is fat AF and his max deal kicks in. We will see but they could very well be exactly where they are right now.
Wolves - Bipolar team. Rudy is aging. Naz likely walks... Maybe they change it up.
Lakers - Running on fumes and no real ways of making big improvements.
I think the West will be closer to Meh than you think.
