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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Handlogten's Heros said:
Taylor has firmly been in the 20s since like the December-ish... to go from the 20s to late lotto in 4 months is pretty natural. Bilal's "rise" has been from second round to maybe interesting 1st round guy to wherever it is now in the matter of a month.

A guy who gets missed in HS and then jumps on the scene and is immediately productive and now very much on the radar is different imo.
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I mean, there's clearly as overseas lag/American bias for this kind of stuff. I would say they both had pretty similar rises. I did a search for Bilal's name in the same time frame as the one I did for Hendricks (before the college season started) and Bilal had some actual conversation around his name as a draft prospect vs Hendricks who had none.
 
Put it this way... I think Bilal is more likely to go #28 than he is to go #9 as of right now. If he has a big game or some other event.. I will raise where I think he will go.

This is not where I think he should go... just watching drafts in the past and how things work I think our opinion of his stock is likely quite a bit different than around the league.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I mean, there's clearly as overseas lag/American bias for this kind of stuff. I would say they both had pretty similar rises. I did a search for Bilal's name in the same time frame as the one I did for Hendricks (before the college season started) and Bilal had some actual conversation around his name as a draft prospect vs Hendricks who had none.
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That's fine but if you do that for Taylor in early December the result is much different I am guessing. The amount of time he has been on draft boards may anchor him to a higher spot than Bilal (fair or unfair) that is my argument. Its easy to jump from unheard of dude... to late first bubble with a few games. For someone to pass up Dick, Hawkins, Wallace, and maybe Hendricks to pick him is just not something I see happening.
 
KqWIN said:
It took like a month or two max for people to start considering him in the middle of the first or even higher.
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And then it took another month or two of steady production to get him from there to top 10 (maybe). Most national boards still don't have Bilal as a top 30 guy.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
That's fine but if you do that for Taylor in early December the result is much different I am guessing. The amount of time he has been on draft boards may anchor him to a higher spot than Bilal (fair or unfair) that is my argument. Its easy to jump from unheard of dude... to late first bubble with a few games. For someone to pass up Dick, Hawkins, Wallace, and maybe Hendricks to pick him is just not something I see happening.
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Exactly. He has to beat an entrenched consensus that took at least an entire season to situate. I would be gobsmacked if he went too-ten. I would be surprised if he’s not available at #16 but wouldn’t be shocked.

If we’re going to talk about the Giannis comparison, BTW, Giannis was taken #14 in one of the worst drafts of the last 20 years which was almost unprecedented at the time. Giannis got traction like that because he was a 6’ 9” PG and it was one of the worst and weirdest drafts in the last 20 years (and everyone knew it, hell, this is the draft Anthony Bennett went #1).

TLDR; Bilal just doesn’t have that kind of profile, this isn’t the 2013 Darft, and Giannis didn’t go top-ten.

The earliest I see Bilal coming off the board is to a team with multiple 1sts and happy to roll dice. If he gets past the Magic’s 2nd pick then I think he’s there at #16. If he isn’t, another prospect I have more confidence in will be there so it’s all gravy to me.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
That's fine but if you do that for Taylor in early December the result is much different I am guessing. The amount of time he has been on draft boards may anchor him to a higher spot than Bilal (fair or unfair) that is my argument. Its easy to jump from unheard of dude... to late first bubble with a few games. For someone to pass up Dick, Hawkins, Wallace, and maybe Hendricks to pick him is just not something I see happening.
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Yeah, I did the searches for Hendricks throughout his draft hype span. Pre-season nothing, first month of season = people who are the most up to date on things are calling him a first rounder, end of December was people calling him a potential lottery guy, then from there he just stayed steady as guys fell below him and I would say the last month or two have been people talking themselves into him being top 10.

I just think it's so hard to make it kind of comparison to the news/hype cycle a college prospect gets vs an European guy gets. There's always going to be more hesitancy towards overseas prospects and they usually get more buzz when the college season dies down. Hell multiple teams took college dudes over the most bulletproof European prospect of all time (Luka). Bilal's rise is exceptional, but I dont think it's hyper unique or unheard of.

I dont think any of the college guys in our draft range have put together an impressive enough body of work on tape to make them guaranteed at that spot. If Bilal or GG come into a workout and just murder dudes who are 1,2,3,4 years older than them, I wouldnt be shocked to see DA reach. Hell, Jaylen Brown was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him at 3. Most mocks had him at 7/8. A reach of 4-5 picks might not seem like much, but that is usually considered pretty sizeable that early in the draft.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And then it took another month or two of steady production to get him from there to top 10 (maybe). Most national boards still don't have Bilal as a top 30 guy.
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Because most national boards really have no idea what they are doing when it comes to international scouting IMO. They are just waiting for someone more legit (like Draft Express/ The Ringer) to push the hype throttle so they can safely get on board.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Because most national boards really have no idea what they are doing when it comes to international scouting IMO. They are just waiting for someone more legit (like Draft Express/ The Ringer) to push the hype throttle so they can safely get on board.
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Vecenie had him in the 30s in his most recent draft board and the ringer have him outside the top 40… no ceilings in the 40s.

It just would be wild for a guy to jump that much at this point in the process.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I dont think any of the college guys in our draft range have put together an impressive enough body of work on tape to make them guaranteed at that spot. If Bilal or GG come into a workout and just murder dudes who are 1,2,3,4 years older than them, I wouldnt be shocked to see DA reach. Hell, Jaylen Brown was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him at 3. Most mocks had him at 7/8. A reach of 4-5 picks might not seem like much, but that is usually considered pretty sizeable that early in the draft.
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To really hit home on your last point that would be the equivalent of someone like Walker or Whitmore being taken 3rd which seems pretty crazy right now so that’s how it was.
 
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