2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[KqWIN]

that's hysterical. iow, like i said, nobody knows who the best player is. find who you think is the best guy at a position of need and/or a guy who has good athleticism and measurables and cross your fingers.

this crap is impossible to predict even for the professionals, guys who spend 80 hours a week looking at and evaluating these prospects

There's many more examples of this too. I didn't bring this up to roast draft evaluators, but more so of a reminder of how imperfect of a science it is. I don't even think the reasoning and rationale was off base, but the ceiling/floor conversation can lead to mistakes very easily. Many guys who ended up way below their "floor" as well.

If you look at the all star team, all nba team, best players in the league and look at the true draft steals I think more often than not the reason why they were a steal in the first place is that they were better than most imagined they could be. It's less common to find someone that was passed on because they were a boom/bust player that wasn't drafted earlier because the risk was too high.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Keyonte's evaluation is very similar to GG Jackson's except that Keyonte was underperforming and taking a lot of shots on a good team instead of underperforming on a bad team and taking a lot of shots. He's even been noted as having negative/immature body language like GG.

If you really believe in Keyonte it comes down to eye test, just like GG.

The main differences between the two for me are age (13 months difference), size/positional scarcity, and defensive upside. There's a lot of Keyonte George's out there and there are more coming. GG is just flat out more unique.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Keyonte's evaluation is very similar to GG Jackson's except that Keyonte was underperforming and taking a lot of shots on a good team instead of underperforming on a bad team and taking a lot of shots. He's even been noted as having negative/immature body language like GG.

If you really believe in Keyonte it comes down to eye test, just like GG.

The main differences between the two for me are age (13 months difference), size/positional scarcity, and defensive upside. There's a lot of Keyonte George's out there and there are more coming. GG is just flat out more unique.

And Keyonte is flat-out better, but the similarity of their eye-test/qualitative attributes has certainly been on my mind.

 

[KqWIN]

Continuing my impressions by the prospects based strictly on highlights Above are the top 15 I've watched... I will try to go for 7 more today...
16. Jalen Hood-Schifino - guard with size (or is he a wing?)... either way... looks to have great skill level... good ballhandler... variety of advanced moves - hesi, hang dribble, splits double teams... wow... impressive/creative passing... pull up jumpers... %s look ... OK, but shot looks good overall... Doesn't look like an athlete... very... ground-bound... but I like the skill... What's the knock on him? Probably questions about athleticism and defense? He looks like a better basketball player than most of the list above... at least on highlights...
17. Jordan Hawkins - seems like a shooting guard... the shot looks nice... has some bounce, attacks the rim with purpose... doesn't look like he has much self-creation or creation for teammates. Not much wiggle... not much on-ball offensive skill... some nice movement off-ball though... How's his defense? Can he be a 3&D guard? I guess that would be his ideal role.
18. Keyonte George - ewww... that FG% is horrible... what? Even though the FG% is bad... the shot looks good. FT% might suggest potential for improvement in the 3p shot. And the FG% might suggest horrible shot selection? Seems to have some quickness and some athletic ability, not elite but OK. Has some wiggle. Handle looks good, helps him attack the paint... seems to settle for 3s, though... had some finishes with the left hand on this highlight? Nice... Has some on ball skill... good passer... I'm intrigued. Need to watch a few full games.
19. Nick Smith Jr - listed 6'5" ... looks smaller to me. Very nice quickness. Doesn't seem super bouncy.... Shot looks good... %s like with a lot of this class are meh... you have to project it. Some floaters... attacks the paint with his quickness... but in a lot of cases settles for floaters. Doesn't seem to be high level creator - not for himself and not for others... I think I like all previous 3 better than him.
20. Kris Murray... old... seems to be the oldest prospect I've seen so far. Big wing/forward. Lefty! Doesn't looks slow or uncoordinated but... looks a bit robotic when he dribbles... and when he shoots. Not much wiggle, but he has some skill and the shot looks OK, even if the %s are meh... not much in-between game. Question is ... is he dominating because he's older than everybody on the floor?
21. Dariq Whitehead - first play, PnR, crossover into rim attack and a dunk. OK... intrigued. Big guard/wing? 3p% higher than 2p%? Why? Behind the back dribble into attack of the rim. WOW! He has some high level flashes... Shot looks real nice. %s are nice too. Shoots it on the catch and off the pnr... some step backs too. I'm intrigued! What's the story with him? I need to watch some full games for better feel of his game. The flashes and the shooting are high level. It feels like he needs to be higher on the board... Has high level traits and high level shooting. Flashes of ballhandling... why is his 2p% so low? Looks like a long player... how's his defense? I just saw him take a few 1 foot past the 3p like off the dribble 2s... reminded me of someone... and his shot kinda looks like his(Alec Burks)
22. GG Jackson - have to be honest... I stretched this installment just so I can get to GG, becaus of all the discussions in this thread about him. Ok... lets see... 38%FG?!?!? EWW! For a big/forward? EWW! Good size, good lenght... good athleticism... Some nice finishes through contest at the rim. Shot looks OK, %s are meh to bad... shows some eurostep moves... On highlights, he looks like he should be much better than he is. Can handle a bit and attack the paint with the dribble... finishes with the left too. Damn... some intriguing flashes. I think I will need to watch him in full games to see why all of his stats are so bad.

So... what say you? What did I get wrong? What did I get right?

Here's what I would add:

JHS - The knock on him is that he is incredibly inefficient because he is so mid range heavy. He is one of the worst players in the draft (if not the worst) at getting to and finishing around the basket. Also a very low stocks (steals and blocks) player. These things reflect the low athleticism that you picked up on.An optimist would look at his work in the mid range game and fall in love with how polished this part of his game is. A pessimist would say that's the only good part about his game and it's the least important as it is the least efficient shot in the game.

Hawkins - Probably the best movement shooter in the draft. A little small/skinny but good athlete. I think opinions on his defense are somewhat mixed, but vary from the range of bad to average. Plays hard both ways but not enough size/strength. Some believe he could be that tier 1 shooter at the next level.

Keyonte - FG% is horrible, but TS% is higher than someone like JHS because he shoots so many three's and gets to the line. Was a top 8ish prospect all year and fell after a rough finish to the season (he got injured). Has the chucker label and that's earned, but has some complimentary skills as well (passing flashes + physical player on both ends).

NSJ - Came into the year as a top 6ish prospect. Was injured most of the year, when he did play kinda stunk it up. People are in love with his floater, but it barely went in. I kinda think he's Lou Williams if Lou couldn't get to the FT line.

Murray - Boring, even I don't care lol

Dariq - Was the #1 guy in this class, has foot injuries. Ironically came into college with an explosive athlete label, but this season was clearly not healthy and was terrible around the basket but a very good shooter. Kinda flipped the script. Had another foot procedure this off-season raising more concerns.

GG - Was the #1 guy but reclassified (like Bagley did). Polarizing prospect. Great highlights, but that's because highlights are highlights. Some ugly film otherwise that lead to those ugly numbers. Eye of the beholder prospect. He was awful, but he is the youngest guy in the draft.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

There's many more examples of this too. I didn't bring this up to roast draft evaluators, but more so of a reminder of how imperfect of a science it is. I don't even think the reasoning and rationale was off base, but the ceiling/floor conversation can lead to mistakes very easily. Many guys who ended up way below their "floor" as well.

If you look at the all star team, all nba team, best players in the league and look at the true draft steals I think more often than not the reason why they were a steal in the first place is that they were better than most imagined they could be. It's less common to find someone that was passed on because they were a boom/bust player that wasn't drafted earlier because the risk was too high.

yep. beware putting guys in boxes. SGA - tall pg who isn't a good shooter and not an elite athlete - gotta be elfrid payton. honestly it's one of the dumbest things we do when discussing draft prospects. every guy is unique in spite of the similarities we might see in them. I'm guilty as well - Cason Wallace has to b Jrue, right? they are the same size, both great defenders and suspect albeit decent shooters. Reality is, Wallace will likely be worse than Holliday, but he could be even better if he becomes a lights out shooter.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Continuing my impressions by the prospects based strictly on highlights Above are the top 15 I've watched... I will try to go for 7 more today...
16. Jalen Hood-Schifino - guard with size (or is he a wing?)... either way... looks to have great skill level... good ballhandler... variety of advanced moves - hesi, hang dribble, splits double teams... wow... impressive/creative passing... pull up jumpers... %s look ... OK, but shot looks good overall... Doesn't look like an athlete... very... ground-bound... but I like the skill... What's the knock on him? Probably questions about athleticism and defense? He looks like a better basketball player than most of the list above... at least on highlights...

JHS is a guy I'm coming around on. I think my last big board he was right outside the top 30, but he's probably closer to 20 for me now. He's just kind of boring tbh, but I think some of that might have been Indiana and how Trayce Jackson Davis focused their offense was. JHS probably has the most "mature" PNR skill in the draft with his pace and how he frees up room with snake dribbles and getting to his mid-range spots. Would be interesting to see his decision making skills in a more spaced court.

 

[sip]

21. Dariq Whitehead - first play, PnR, crossover into rim attack and a dunk. OK... intrigued. Big guard/wing? 3p% higher than 2p%? Why? Behind the back dribble into attack of the rim. WOW! He has some high level flashes... Shot looks real nice. %s are nice too. Shoots it on the catch and off the pnr... some step backs too. I'm intrigued! What's the story with him? I need to watch some full games for better feel of his game. The flashes and the shooting are high level. It feels like he needs to be higher on the board... Has high level traits and high level shooting. Flashes of ballhandling... why is his 2p% so low? Looks like a long player... how's his defense? I just saw him take a few 1 foot past the 3p like off the dribble 2s... reminded me of someone... and his shot kinda looks like his(Alec Burks)

Whitehead is tough to scout because he was never healthy last year. He broke his foot late August and missed most of Dukes training camp so he really struggled to start the season. Then he finally seemed to be shaking off the rust a little and got injured again. He came back again but never looked right. Then of course a few weeks ago we heard that his foot never healed properly so he needed another surgery. If healthy he was my top choice at 16 but the depth is so good in that range that I don't think I would take the risk now. My dream is him slipping to 28 with the injury concerns but there are a bunch of teams in that 20-27 that have multiple picks who I think will gladly take a flyer on him.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

dwh, with this second surgery will be there at 28. take it to the bank.

Whitehead is tough to scout because he was never healthy last year. He broke his foot late August and missed most of Dukes training camp so he really struggled to start the season. Then he finally seemed to be shaking off the rust a little and got injured again. He came back again but never looked right. Then of course a few weeks ago we heard that his foot never healed properly so he needed another surgery. If healthy he was my top choice at 16 but the depth is so good in that range that I don't think I would take the risk now. My dream is him slipping to 28 with the injury concerns but there are a bunch of teams in that 20-27 that have multiple picks who I think will gladly take a flyer on him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Continuing my impressions by the prospects based strictly on highlights Above are the top 15 I've watched... I will try to go for 7 more today...
16. Jalen Hood-Schifino - guard with size (or is he a wing?)... either way... looks to have great skill level... good ballhandler... variety of advanced moves - hesi, hang dribble, splits double teams... wow... impressive/creative passing... pull up jumpers... %s look ... OK, but shot looks good overall... Doesn't look like an athlete... very... ground-bound... but I like the skill... What's the knock on him? Probably questions about athleticism and defense? He looks like a better basketball player than most of the list above... at least on highlights...

The knock is the shot didn't go in much. Low steal and block rates for a guy with his wingspan. Should be okay on defense.

17. Jordan Hawkins - seems like a shooting guard... the shot looks nice... has some bounce, attacks the rim with purpose... doesn't look like he has much self-creation or creation for teammates. Not much wiggle... not much on-ball offensive skill... some nice movement off-ball though... How's his defense? Can he be a 3&D guard? I guess that would be his ideal role.

I think this guy is undervalued. Seems to have endless energy and I think he could be deadly off of screens both as a shooter or curling for layups. His on ball defense is very good... he plays hard there but he is slight and on the smaller side so he may just be adequate instead of good on defense.

18. Keyonte George - ewww... that FG% is horrible... what? Even though the FG% is bad... the shot looks good. FT% might suggest potential for improvement in the 3p shot. And the FG% might suggest horrible shot selection? Seems to have some quickness and some athletic ability, not elite but OK. Has some wiggle. Handle looks good, helps him attack the paint... seems to settle for 3s, though... had some finishes with the left hand on this highlight? Nice... Has some on ball skill... good passer... I'm intrigued. Need to watch a few full games.

Highly touted prospect... fizzled towards the end of the season but shot didn't go in enough.

19. Nick Smith Jr - listed 6'5" ... looks smaller to me. Very nice quickness. Doesn't seem super bouncy.... Shot looks good... %s like with a lot of this class are meh... you have to project it. Some floaters... attacks the paint with his quickness... but in a lot of cases settles for floaters. Doesn't seem to be high level creator - not for himself and not for others... I think I like all previous 3 better than him.

Highly ranked prospect... knee injury to start the season and it may have bothered him during the season. He's not my cup of tea. One of the evaluators made me laugh when they talked about his defense... the long and short of it was he tries but looks like he's never been coached at all as his technique and awareness are so bad.

20. Kris Murray... old... seems to be the oldest prospect I've seen so far. Big wing/forward. Lefty! Doesn't looks slow or uncoordinated but... looks a bit robotic when he dribbles... and when he shoots. Not much wiggle, but he has some skill and the shot looks OK, even if the %s are meh... not much in-between game. Question is ... is he dominating because he's older than everybody on the floor?

OLD AF... but likely a good pick in the 20s as I have no doubt he will be an nba rotation wing... even if its a low upside wing that's something to bank on for cheap.

21. Dariq Whitehead - first play, PnR, crossover into rim attack and a dunk. OK... intrigued. Big guard/wing? 3p% higher than 2p%? Why? Behind the back dribble into attack of the rim. WOW! He has some high level flashes... Shot looks real nice. %s are nice too. Shoots it on the catch and off the pnr... some step backs too. I'm intrigued! What's the story with him? I need to watch some full games for better feel of his game. The flashes and the shooting are high level. It feels like he needs to be higher on the board... Has high level traits and high level shooting. Flashes of ballhandling... why is his 2p% so low? Looks like a long player... how's his defense? I just saw him take a few 1 foot past the 3p like off the dribble 2s... reminded me of someone... and his shot kinda looks like his(Alec Burks)

Dude was way more athletic in HS. had and injury coming into the season and struggled to get started. Had surgery on the same injured foot recently... so likely bothered him all year. High upside guy in the teens/20s that also has a decent floor if healthy since he can shoot the piss out of the ball.

22. GG Jackson - have to be honest... I stretched this installment just so I can get to GG, becaus of all the discussions in this thread about him. Ok... lets see... 38%FG?!?!? EWW! For a big/forward? EWW! Good size, good lenght... good athleticism... Some nice finishes through contest at the rim. Shot looks OK, %s are meh to bad... shows some eurostep moves... On highlights, he looks like he should be much better than he is. Can handle a bit and attack the paint with the dribble... finishes with the left too. Damn... some intriguing flashes. I think I will need to watch him in full games to see why all of his stats are so bad.

Crazy polarizing player... this is the right spot for him though.

So... what say you? What did I get wrong? What did I get right?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

dwh, with this second surgery will be there at 28. take it to the bank.

He wont be.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If you like GG cuz you think the size means he can defend and do the extra stuff and is brimming with potential... I think Leonard Miller is the better upside pick to do stuff like that and add some scoring/shooting on top of it at some point.

If you like GG cuz of bucket getting Sensabaugh is a better prospect imo. Now if those guys are gone and you want to grab GG then by all means... but he feels so obviously like fools gold.

If Leonard Miller could get buckets like Brice Sensabaugh, then you'd really have something.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

When crafting a big board, there's an obvious raw talent drop around the 20 or so, so if by pick 20 he is still on the board, I think teams will just take him. I think his absolute floor would be Portland at 23 given how much Schmitz believed in the HS tape of Shaedon Sharpe, Whitehead should give him similar feels.

Im doing a rough draft of a board now, and I have Whitehead in the lottery.