2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[fishonjazz]

Jarace continues to be worrisome to me. I don’t know exactly how he is getting pegged as some consensus top-6/7 prospect. 34.7% from 3 and 66.3% from FT. I’ve been told his passing is his best ability but he’s terrible at creating so how will he showcase that? He’s not a good finisher at the rim either.

I will go out on a limb and say he has the biggest bust potential out of any of the other guys projected to go in the top-7.

Ya he has fallen off big time for me. After the measurements i was pretty high on him but a lot of your data has made me not want him anymore

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If drafting was as simple as just picking who had the best stats in Synergy then you would see teams drafting way better.

Drafting well is a bit like believing in ghost at times. You have to be able to see something that isn't there.

Sample sizes are so small and situations are so different that it makes comparing stats not that useful. That's probably a reason that free throw percentage is a better indicator than other stats since everyone takes those shots under the same circumstances.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If drafting was as simple as just picking who had the best stats in Synergy then you would see teams drafting way better.

Drafting well is a bit like believing in ghost at times. You have to be able to see something that isn't there.

I would say you are overcomplicating things a bit here. I would say there are some things that are pretty reliably predicative.

I would say if you are looking for ghosts its more likely you are hoping to get lucky.

Sometimes analysis is awesome but its not infallible. Sometimes you get lucky or unlucky, if folks want to dissect it after the fact and claim to be a visionary that's fine.

Jarace is a fine bet at #9. I prefer Hendricks because of the bankable things I think he's shown. Either guy could have a "ghost skill". Either guy could get derailed by injury... both guys are solid bets.

 

[default]

its more likely you are hoping to get lucky.

Who isn't?

 

[The Midnight]

Jarace continues to be worrisome to me. I don’t know exactly how he is getting pegged as some consensus top-6/7 prospect. 34.7% from 3 and 66.3% from FT. I’ve been told his passing is his best ability but he’s terrible at creating so how will he showcase that? He’s not a good finisher at the rim either.

I will go out on a limb and say he has the biggest bust potential out of any of the other guys projected to go in the top-7.

If numbers tell everything you need to know, then scouts would be out of the job imo.

Personally I don’t think numbers tell you everything.

It’s part of the analysis, sure, but I personally would only give it 50%.

The rest comes from interviewing him, talking to his coaches, talking to his teammates, psycho analysis, analyipsing his movement, his game, the eye test, etc, etc,.

 

[default]

I frequently see arguments debating forwards Hendrix and Walker, but I am really wondering if Leonard Miller should be in this same discussion. I'm not 100% convinced that he isn't just as good.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If numbers tell everything you need to know, then scouts would be out of the job imo.

Personally I don’t think numbers tell you everything.

It’s part of the analysis, sure, but I personally would only give it 50%.

The rest comes from interviewing him, talking to his coaches, talking to his teammates, psycho analysis, analyipsing his movement, his game, the eye test, etc, etc,.

To me numbers tell you where to look.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I frequently see arguments debating forwards Hendrix and Walker, but I am really wondering if Leonard Miller should be in this same discussion. I'm not 100% convinced that he isn't just as good.

Better than Hendricks imo but falls short of Walker

 

[KqWIN]

Am I crazy or did Eliza go from “shooting stats don’t matter” to THE guy using shooting stats for everything haha.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Am I crazy or did Eliza go from “shooting stats don’t matter” to THE guy using shooting stats for everything haha.

I personally don’t believe that your 3PT% as a freshman matters all that much. If you remember that was the gist of what I was saying.

I have been going deep into analysis about finishing at the rim, shots in halfcourt setting, off the dribble, catch and shoot, etc. All of that’s stuff matters.

I am not an NBA scout nor am I some super evaluator. What I do provide is doing deep dive research for you guys on here and provide my own opinions on a few guys.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

A draft I would like that nearly everyone would hate: JHS, Klintman, Sheppard

sheppard is good. i wouldn't mind him at 28

 

[KqWIN]

Death, taxes, and stats only matter when they reaffirm my opinion I think you can glean some extra insight by doing more contextual stats. But it’s funny to be the guy that says we can’t use Freshman shooting stats and then all of a sudden get really into even smaller sample size numbers for freshman. The more you cut the sample the more SSS it is obviously.

I still like Jarace a lot. Shooting is a concern but the real appeal is his defense. I think he is one of the best, if not the best defensive prospect in this draft. He will enable teams to have a small ball look without compromising things that a big man would also provide. I think his defense has become somewhat of an afterthought in these convos but I’d say he has the potential to be a DPOY/ Best defender in a playoff series type guy.

Offensively I hated the way HOU used him and think he will be much better in an NBA system. His offense gets less exciting if the shooting never comes around….but I’d really like to see him in more PnR and as a passer out of the high post. The two man game between Jokic/Murray and Bam/Whatever shooter has been a staple in both team’s offenses this playoffs and I think Jarace can unlock that.

With all that said, I’m kind of a sucker for these kind of prospects. Love Okongwu, Aaron Gordon, Wendell Carter, Mobley etc. I really value a physical athlete who offers some skill and does the little things. Im also less critical of bigs’ shooting than guards, but maybe that’s a mistake.

From a Jazz perspective I think he’s the ideal fit with Lauri in a 4/5 combo situation, but it does get more dicey playing with Kessler as you’re making a bigger bet on his shooting skills. Before you draft Jarace I think you have to make a judgement on Kessler and consider whether he’s the guy you max out and play in every situation like Gobert or just a very good good C who may or may not be a part of your closing playoff look.