Players bound for a big leap next year

[FrenchJazzFa]

Sexton and Kessler for me. If Sexton start, i see him having his best season. And Kessler could be at Rudy stat already this year if he play 30-33 min per game.

 

[fishonjazz]

Sure if he gets more minutes he’ll score more. Not rocket science. But just because he gets more minutes and points doesn’t really translate to net value uptick. I want to see if he can significantly improve his ft shooting. That’s where his uptick in value will come

I think a big increase in rebounds and points equates to a big jump regardless of the reason for the big jump in stats

 

[Agent#00]

I don't actually think he'll regress, but think it's wise to temper expectations. I think the Sophomore slump is mostly due to better scouting, but also due to increased expectations.

For example I'm a big fan of Evan Mobley, who similar to Kessler had a great rookie season due to his defense. Even though he played well last year many considered his Sophomore season dissapointing because of increased expectations.

I've seen some talk of Kessler making an all star team or being a DPOY candidate. That would be amazing, and I wouldn't put it past him, but I'll just be happy if he plays as well as he did last year. I think most players take a leap their third year.

Mobley was better in his second year.

FG% from 50.8 to 55.4%
Pts from 15 to 16.5
FT from 66.3 to 67.4%
Reb from 8.3 to 9

Evan Mobley Career Stats - NBA - ESPN

Complete career NBA stats for the Cleveland Cavaliers Center Evan Mobley on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

I think DM took all the spotlight that’s why people think he went on a slump. Kessler s gonna be fine. USAB is gonna help him. Those international tournaments are tough

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Mobley was better in his second year.

FG% from 50.8 to 55.4%
Pts from 15 to 16.5
FT from 66.3 to 67.4%
Reb from 8.3 to 9

Evan Mobley Career Stats - NBA - ESPN

Complete career NBA stats for the Cleveland Cavaliers Center Evan Mobley on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

I think DM took all the spotlight that’s why people think he went on a slump. Kessler s gonna be fine. USAB is gonna help him. Those international tournaments are tough

This is all a big part of the point I was making. Mobley played about the same, maybe even better than his rookie year, but was considered a disappointment because of expectations. In general Sophomore slumps aren't real slumps, just changes in expectations.

If the expectations are for Kessler to make a big leap then I think there is a good chance he will be disappointing. I think it's more realistic that he plays about the same next year and then makes a leap his 3rd year. That would at least be more consistent with NBA history.

 

[jazfan23]

yes he was. But due to low minutes (23 per game) he only averaged 9 points and 8 rebounds. Not really eye popping all star player type numbers.
I expect him to get 30 minutes per game and average 14/15 points and 12/13 rebounds this season which is a pretty big jump imo.

It was all that wasted time he was made to sit waiting for Kelly Olynyk to be traded

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

It was all that wasted time he was made to sit waiting for Kelly Olynyk to be traded

+1. KO is a nice guy but he si not part of a winning team for me. And playing him is time wate for Walter development. Hope this year he play 30-32 min par game anmd we see. He will have to work on less fouling as wekk but i expect him to be at 14pts -12rbd- 2.5 block/game.

 

[The Fresh Prince]

I feel the opposite on almost everyone on your list:

Kessler: The sophomore slump is a real thing, especially for rookies who outplayed expectations.

Lauri: I do feel like he has another level he can get to, but it feels unfair to expect that after his historically good season last year.

Go home, you're drunk (you're sober as Hot Rod)

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Go home, you're drunk (you're sober as Hot Rod)

Nah Man, I'm having moments of complete clarity.

To be clear, I'm not talking about what I hope happens or what is possible, just managing expectations. I've already made my case for Kessler in the other posts I've made in this thread. As for Lauri, I do wonder how a non traditional off season will affect his game.

 

[KqWIN]

Kessler - Not sure where his game goes from here, but that's because he was so good for a rookie. I think he will improve his FT shooting but I do not believe in any kind of jump shot in live play. I think he becomes marginally better, but as @SoberasHotRod has pointed out this may be a disappointment due to heightened expectations.

Collins - He will be better because he was so poor at shooting last season.

Lauri - Opposite of Collins, had a career year and it's tough to string two of those together. Think he will take a tiny step back.

Clarkson - Should be about the same

Sexton - I think he will be about the same on a per possession basis, maybe a little less efficient, but doing so over a larger set of games with more minutes will be a huge step for him Slight improvements to his spot up shooting and playmaking will go a long way for him.

 

[HermanG]

Lauris upcoming year is really difficult to predict...

1) He has had a weird offseason. Unprecedented for an NBA player, maybe(?).. so no data on how he might come back.

2) His last year was brilliant, but is it his new level or was it a career year?

3) How will defenses adjust to him next season? After a breakout year like he had there must be some new wrinkles coming his way.

4) Despite having a great year, he still has lots of room to improve. Passing and driving with the ball, pullups and post/elbow play to mention a few.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Nah Man, I'm having moments of complete clarity.

To be clear, I'm not talking about what I hope happens or what is possible, just managing expectations. I've already made my case for Kessler in the other posts I've made in this thread. As for Lauri, I do wonder how a non traditional off season will affect his game.

Him doing his military service is probably causing him to be in better shape. From what I’ve read about Finland’s mandatory service that they have programs in place for professional athletes to keep them in their playing shape and have workout programs tailored to their needs so they are off to a great start and he won’t miss any of training camp. If anything it’s like he’s going to have a leg up on other nba players.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Him doing his military service is probably causing him to be in better shape. From what I’ve read about Finland’s mandatory service that they have programs in place for professional athletes to keep them in their playing shape and have workout programs tailored to their needs so they are off to a great start and he won’t miss any of training camp. If anything it’s like he’s going to have a leg up on other nba players.

I could see that. It's also possible that he has extra wear and tear going in to the season that effects him at some point. Calling his off season non-traditional is pretty fair, and nobody really knows how it will effect him. Elite athletes seem to thrive off of consistency and routine, so shaking up his normal off season routine might have an effect.

I'm not actually that concerned as I think there is probably a bit of PR pressure on the Finnish Army to make sure he is good to go for the season. It feels like they are doing everything they can to help him be ready.