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Playoff Race Thread

Tremendous Upside said:
This season's rookie crop is another reminder that a guy like Collin Sexton is basically the best case scenario for the overwhelming majority of top 10 picks.

Sexton has gotten a lot of crap, and personally, I'm still not a huge fan of his particular brand of basketball (even though I have no problem giving him props for playing very well lately and helping us win). But it's SO hard to become a guy who can give you 20ppg in the NBA in a way that adds value to your team. Scoring is not the be-all and end-all, but looking at some draft prospect and saying he'll "easily be a 20 point scorer in the league" is just dumb.

I'm not sure if Sexton is in Danny's future plans, but the fact is that he's an explosive scorer and those are rare in the NBA. IMO he shouldn't be traded just to trade him, especially not for picks.
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The reality is that Sexton is an above average 8th overall pick to begin with. Expectations for the draft have always exceeded reality.
 
We have a really good record and performance in clutch situations. +3 wins over our Pythagorean expectation right now. I think that will come back around on us at some point, but some times it does not. Models are really low on us right now because of our poor point differential. Dunksandthrees has us at about 15% to make the playoffs.
 
KqWIN said:
We have a really good record and performance in clutch situations. +3 wins over our Pythagorean expectation right now. I think that will come back around on us at some point, but some times it does not. Models are really low on us right now because of our poor point differential. Dunksandthrees has us at about 15% to make the playoffs.
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Doesn't take into account Lauri and Kessler missing a ton of time.
 
MT Steve said:
Doesn't take into account Lauri and Kessler missing a ton of time.
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Unless DA tinkers or we have a long term injury to one of those two... I think our play in chances are like 50/50.
 
I don't think I'd goes as low as 15%, but 25% sounds reasonable. I still think GSW, PHX, and LAL should be seen as favorites over us and there's only two spots. Small chance someone above flames out above them, but yeah....it's been an up and down (down and up?) year, but the Jazz are about where I expected them overall and I did not expect them to make it at the beginning of the season.
 
KqWIN said:
I don't think I'd goes as low as 15%, but 25% sounds reasonable. I still think GSW, PHX, and LAL should be seen as favorites over us and there's only two spots. Small chance someone above flames out above them, but yeah....it's been an up and down (down and up?) year, but the Jazz are about where I expected them overall and I did not expect them to make it at the beginning of the season.
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I guess HOU is in the mix as well to drop. They are being carried by their defense, but their opposing 3FG% is suspiciously low. They could take a dip. 3 spots for 5 teams....hmmm
 
KqWIN said:
I don't think I'd goes as low as 15%, but 25% sounds reasonable. I still think GSW, PHX, and LAL should be seen as favorites over us and there's only two spots. Small chance someone above flames out above them, but yeah....it's been an up and down (down and up?) year, but the Jazz are about where I expected them overall and I did not expect them to make it at the beginning of the season.
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I'm not so sure. IT will also depend a lot of the coming trade. Some big market have capacity to improve their roster in a fast way. But GSW, PHX or LAL are one star injury away to slip down .
The good point of the season is that it let all options open for DA. In one month from now we will know. If i was GM, i will trade some players like THT and try to add a second ''star player'' to add with Lauri. We are not that far right now from beeing top 3-6 at West.
 
The last 16 games Jazz are #9 in net rating. Both offense and Defense are pretty close to top 10 in that time.

Its made such a huge difference to be healthy, players in a better role, and guys picking up the system.

Leading the way with that Net rating is Kessler with a whopping +19. #2 is actually THT who was playing well and helping us win before being vanquished, but only played 6 of those games. Next is Clarkson and then the most surprising but great for us is Keyonte. Lauri, Simone, Agbaji, and Dunn are all positive as well. Sexton and Collins are our only negative rotation players. Those two are because the defense rating goes to **** with them. Which makes sense because Collins isnt great at center usually and Sexton isnt a great defender.

Advanced stats are real wonky this year though. The first 20 games or so we so many injuries, a ton of lineup changes, and the team struggling to run the system right. I think the last 16 is more accurate but maybe a bit high because of some hot streaks.
 
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