Culture of winning or tank?

[Ron Mexico]

I love when folks are like… tanking doesn’t work… you can get all stars at other points in the draft…

What if… what if you did both??? That’s what OKC did (yes yes I know SGA blah blah blah). We can trade Lauri or whoever for young players and picks too… maybe not on SGAs level but still.

You have to acquire top level talent. Go ahead and dip your poles in as many stocked ponds as you can.

The whole trade for a star discussion is also dumb. We’ve had opportunities to get “stars” at decent prices and balked because they likely wouldn’t re-sign because they are only under contract for a year (Jrue and Pascal and OG)… guess what… 80% of the stars that become available will be in the same situation. I get that we should be patient and we aren’t there yet but nothing about the last 12 months tells me we are more ready now to call someone’s bluff.

I don’t buy that we are big game hunting yet… I don’t know that we trade Lauri or whatever but I think we do more sit and wait unless a perfect opportunity comes along… and I wouldn’t eff around much anymore personally. Yall can drink the kool aid if ya want.

Yeah, Shai runner up to the MVP blah blah blah. Don't worry about that part. That's literally the only part that's hard to come by and the only reason they are successful right now. They traded for a decent looking 10 ppg rookie that turned into a MVP level player.

If they didn't get him they are still a lottery team with lots of picks and young guys with potential. Which isn't a terrible place to be in but not really much to talk about.

We could trade away Lauri and cross our fingers we get a guy at his level. Chances are we can't in multiple drafts with high picks. But he would be younger if we did.

Lauri might fit best fit player ever. You can plug any style guy next to him and he fits. I'm okay losing next year around him if nothing works out but trading him is a really stupid move unless he wants out, which doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The data provided gave an average draft position for MVP championship players. The data is the data.

Look I know that a better pick is better than a worse pick because if you have the first pick then you can still take Gianni's or kawhi or whoever. But the data is the data and I like winning way more than losing. If the data says that winning more and getting a player like giannis is just as likely as losing more and getting a player like Giannis then I would rather win more.

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Fish I love you buddy but when “the data” factors in a once in 100 year event to push the average draft position then “the data” isn’t a great predictor of the future. Jokic may be the only mvp ever to be drafted in the second round. Go look at a simple list of league mvps since say 2000 and it’s comprised of guys drafted top 4 or 5… quick count of 14 of the last 24 mvp awards. Can you get an mvp talent between 7-15? Yes. Those picks don’t change hands a ton. If you have extra draft capital you can trade for picks in that range in some drafts… so why wouldn’t we try to do both? Especially because playing the middle will cost us one of those picks in the middle in the next two years and send it to OKC.

You can’t narrow things just to title winners and mvps imo anyway. You try to build a team that can make the conference finals… look at those teams and a disproportionate amount of talent comes from top picks.

Hinkie is like pretty good with data and what did he do? Morey is pretty good with data and what did he do? They both did different things… so the data doesn’t just say one thing.

 

[Ron Mexico]

If Jazz draft at #1 and he turns into an MVP quickly. Does he stay here for his prime when we start winning? Maybe it has to be the right guy. But a lot of guys will want out by then for the spot light like Mitchell. Utah is a unique market. Guys like Lauri and Gobert are rare and valuable to Utah.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, Shai runner up to the MVP blah blah blah. Don't worry about that part. That's literally the only part that's hard to come by and the only reason they are successful right now.

This is so dumb Ron. Chet and Williams have been a huge part of the success. And if Shai is the only thing that matters we need to get a player on his level at all costs. Lauri is not on his level. Lauri may be the thing preventing us from getting that guy.

They traded for a decent looking 10 ppg rookie that turned into a MVP level player.

If they didn't get him they are still a lottery team with lots of picks and young guys with potential. Which isn't a terrible place to be in but not really much to talk about.

If they had Shai and no Chet or Williams they’d also be in the play in or lotto.

We could trade away Lauri and cross our fingers we get a guy at his level. Chances are we can't in multiple drafts with high picks. But he would be younger if we did.

Lauri might fit best fit player ever. You can plug any style guy next to him and he fits. I'm okay losing next year around him if nothing works out but trading him is a really stupid move unless he wants out, which doesn't seem to be the case.

And what about another year of borderline play in team that leads to us sending a pick to OKC. The non tankers seem to want their cake and eat it to ignoring the scenario where we get nothing and now all the competitive advantage of a cheap Lauri contract is fully exhausted. I’m cool with keeping Lauri but we likely have to offload other stuff to stay below 10. Is Lauri excited to hang around next year if we tank second half of the season or get bounced in the play in? Or after he’s been paid does he get more grumbly?

I only move him for a BIG return. But it’s not stupid to trade him if the big offer comes in. The only thing that is dumb is making a move to get in the middle after the last two years we’ve had.

 

[Ron Mexico]

This is so dumb Ron. Chet and Williams have been a huge part of the success. And if Shai is the only thing that matters we need to get a player on his level at all costs. Lauri is not on his level. Lauri may be the thing preventing us from getting that guy.



If they had Shai and no Chet or Williams they’d also be in the play in or lotto.

And what about another year of borderline play in team that leads to us sending a pick to OKC. The non tankers seem to want their cake and eat it to ignoring the scenario where we get nothing and now all the competitive advantage of a cheap Lauri contract is fully exhausted. I’m cool with keeping Lauri but we likely have to offload other stuff to stay below 10. Is Lauri excited to hang around next year if we tank second half of the season or get bounced in the play in? Or after he’s been paid does he get more grumbly?

I only move him for a BIG return. But it’s not stupid to trade him if the big offer comes in. The only thing that is dumb is making a move to get in the middle after the last two years we’ve had.

You can find those role players to fit around your MVP level player. They have a lot of solid players but he is by far the main reason for their success full stop. Glossing over that is crazy.

Lauri is not at his level. I'm not convinced tanking gets us a guy at Lauri's level let alone MVP level. That's a very low percentage.

I'm not arguing we need to get an MVP level guy. I'm saying following their model entirely depends on getting lucky in a trade that lands you an MVP. It's not a path we or any team can follow to be them.

I don't want to be a middle team, I want us to trade and improve. I'm okay giving OKC our pick next year, I don't care about that. I just want us to try to win. I'm okay if we are a 8th seed team next year but things are trending up.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You can find those role players to fit around your MVP level player. They have a lot of solid players but he is by far the main reason for their success full stop. Glossing over that is crazy.

Lauri is not at his level. I'm not convinced tanking gets us a guy at Lauri's level let alone MVP level. That's a very low percentage.

I'm not arguing we need to get an MVP level guy. I'm saying following their model entirely depends on getting lucky in a trade that lands you an MVP. It's not a path we or any team can follow to be them.

I don't want to be a middle team, I want us to trade and improve. I'm okay giving OKC our pick next year, I don't care about that. I just want us to try to win. I'm okay if we are a 8th seed team next year but things are trending up.

Dear lord… Chet and Jalen are closer to all stars than role players.

 

[The Midnight]

You can find those role players to fit around your MVP level player. They have a lot of solid players but he is by far the main reason for their success full stop. Glossing over that is crazy.

Lauri is not at his level. I'm not convinced tanking gets us a guy at Lauri's level let alone MVP level. That's a very low percentage.

I'm not arguing we need to get an MVP level guy. I'm saying following their model entirely depends on getting lucky in a trade that lands you an MVP. It's not a path we or any team can follow to be them.

I don't want to be a middle team, I want us to trade and improve. I'm okay giving OKC our pick next year, I don't care about that. I just want us to try to win. I'm okay if we are a 8th seed team next year but things are trending up.

Yeah you lost it with Chet is a role player take bro.

He’ll be fringe if not All Star player for years to come.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Dear lord… Chet and Jalen are closer to all stars than role players.

They are above average starters this year.

Give me an MVP level player and you can build around him. That is far more important than those guys.

If you swapped Lauri for SGA would you want to trade him and tank this year?

 

[JimLes]

You can’t narrow things just to title winners and mvps imo anyway. You try to build a team that can make the conference finals… look at those teams and a disproportionate amount of talent comes from top picks.

You're the one who narrowed it down to franchise cornerstones, not me. You're just moving the goalposts now, and you're not even providing any numbers.

Not that it matters all that much. All these numbers and math. This isn't a video game; this is real life.

Of course tanking 2-3 more years will provide us with more assets and mathematically give us more chances at drafting good players or hypothetically trading those picks for players(though we all know Danny will never do that). We're all human here and not computers, though. I like seeing the Jazz compete and win. I think we all do. When the Jazz were on a tear around New Year, game threads had 15-20 pages regardless of day of week or time of day. When we blew it up, it'd be 4-5 pages for some of the games. I don't like watching a team I love lose on purpose, and it turns out that even people who clamored for the tank and talked about seeing what the rookies can do don't like watching that, else there'd have been more than 4-5 pages in game threads.

If the draft still worked the way it did 40 years ago and a generational talent like Wemby was in it, yeah, I might be down to tank this upcoming season. This not being true, I'd like to see what some of these players we've got can do when they're not being hamstrung. I'd like to see what players we might be able to get this summer, thought ideally they wouldn't be wife-beaters. It's not a very high bar, I'd like to think.

Life is short, stuff happens. I just wanna be able to cheer on the team I've loved for 3/4 of my life in games whose outcome isn't predetermined. Thanks to @JazzAvenues, we get some glimpses into fan bases where you've got one playoff appearance in a decade. None of those guys seem happy. No one's saying "Well, at least we're not a treadmill team. Championship or tank!"

 

[Ron Mexico]

Yeah you lost it with Chet is a role player take bro.

He’ll be fringe if not All Star player for years to come.

Yeah, always a good sign if One Love disagrees with you.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

They are above average starters this year.

Give me an MVP level player and you can build around him. That is far more important than those guys.

If you swapped Lauri for SGA would you want to trade him and tank this year?

No… because you can trade for guys on Lauri’s level but guys on SGAs level are almost never available lol. That’s the whole point. You have to get that guy. Lauri is a one time all star. It’s a totally different conversation.

And again you are way underselling Williams and Chet to a degree that I think either aren’t paying attention or you are being disingenuous.

Look all this keep Lauri and draft in the 6-9 range stuff is real cute. You only get to try to walk two paths for so long. If we make no changes and are relatively healthy we will be right on that line again. Go ahead and see how everyone reacts when we manage the tank again or lose in the first round of the play in (best case scenario) see how happy Lauri is to be a team player. Would be great to have our cake and eat it too but also pretty fine line to walk.

 

[fishonjazz]

Fish I love you buddy but when “the data” factors in a once in 100 year event to push the average draft position then “the data” isn’t a great predictor of the future. Jokic may be the only mvp ever to be drafted in the second round. Go look at a simple list of league mvps since say 2000 and it’s comprised of guys drafted top 4 or 5… quick count of 14 of the last 24 mvp awards. Can you get an mvp talent between 7-15? Yes. Those picks don’t change hands a ton. If you have extra draft capital you can trade for picks in that range in some drafts… so why wouldn’t we try to do both? Especially because playing the middle will cost us one of those picks in the middle in the next two years and send it to OKC.

You can’t narrow things just to title winners and mvps imo anyway. You try to build a team that can make the conference finals… look at those teams and a disproportionate amount of talent comes from top picks.

Hinkie is like pretty good with data and what did he do? Morey is pretty good with data and what did he do? They both did different things… so the data doesn’t just say one thing.

He made a list. Go look at the post

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