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Culture of winning or tank?

Win or tank?

  • Total voters
    96
Elizah Huge said:
It’s not stupid at all. Having Lauri at the current moment is what has us in the middle. What exactly would your plan be this upcoming offseason and going forward? I’m all for trading for a top-15 guy but who is it and when is he coming available?
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Make good trades, picks, and signings and continue building the roster through incremental moves
 
sip said:
He already stated that his plan is to get Paul George and Jimmy Butler while keeping Lauri and Sexton. Unfortunately that is not possible because you need Sextons salary to match Butler's incoming salary.
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I’m down for that it was actually my idea originally. What happens when that doesn’t go through?
 
Elizah Huge said:
It’s not stupid at all. Having Lauri at the current moment is what has us in the middle. What exactly would your plan be this upcoming offseason and going forward? I’m all for trading for a top-15 guy but who is it and when is he coming available?
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And... much more importantly - how long is he going to stay? Or is it going to be a Mitchell/CLE situation where in 2 years you either lose him or have to trade him and start all over again...
 
FWIW, I see the 2025 draft as the all star draft, but not the MVP draft. I think the top 10-15 will be very deep with all star level guys, but I'm not sure if there is an MVP level guy. The 2026 draft is the MVP level guys, I'm not sure how deep it is, but Dybantsa and Boozer would go 1 and 2 in 2025 if they were in that class.

Now, I definitely could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but this is how I see and understand it today. Theoretically this gives us another year of trying to be good and then blowing it up at the deadline to secure an 8-10 pick, then completely blowing it up for 2026. We would definitely be playing with fire, so not sure I'm on board, but just some thoughts.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
FWIW, I see the 2025 draft as the all star draft, but not the MVP draft. I think the top 10-15 will be very deep with all star level guys, but I'm not sure if there is an MVP level guy. The 2026 draft is the MVP level guys, I'm not sure how deep it is, but Dybantsa and Boozer would go 1 and 2 in 2025 if they were in that class.

Now, I definitely could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but this is how I see and understand it today. Theoretically this gives us another year of trying to be good and then blowing it up at the deadline to secure an 8-10 pick, then completely blowing it up for 2026. We would definitely be playing with fire, so not sure I'm on board, but just some thoughts.
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I see it as some all nba talent and some all stars. Maybe not top 5 types but guys in the Tatum tier potentially.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I see it as some all nba talent and some all stars. Maybe not top 5 types but guys in the Tatum tier potentially.
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Could be. Obviously you want the higher pick, but if the front office feels the talent level is pretty flat 1-10 and flattened odds give us a decent chance at a top 4 pick, then I could see the front office feeling like that strategy makes sense.

Ainge mentioned several times his plan to draft Kevin Durant and then losing the lottery. I wonder if he just doesn't want to hope for lottery luck as a plan for the future.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Could be. Obviously you want the higher pick, but if the front office feels the talent level is pretty flat 1-10 and flattened odds give us a decent chance at a top 4 pick, then I could see the front office feeling like that strategy makes sense.

Ainge mentioned several times his plan to draft Kevin Durant and then losing the lottery. I wonder if he just doesn't want to hope for lottery luck as a plan for the future.
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Yeah I think there is a sweet spot you want to land in IF you are keeping Lauri... coming in around 5-6 is a balance between odds and not being complete ***. I just think you have to move one or both of Walker/Sexton if you want to keep Lauri and keep your pick in that range. It just feels like wasting another year of Lauri's prime. Make incremental improvements and that pick is going to OKC next year... the BIG moves all seem so meh (Ingram, Young, etc. ain't doing it for me). I would love some instant gratification with a playoff team but there is a cost associated with it... just like there is a cost associated with getting John Collins for "free".

I would sit down with Lauri and lay it out. Let him know its going to be him and the young fellas and if they aren't a for sure play-in team that we will manage the pick situation. I would make him whole by giving him even more that we have to in the renegotiation this year (I would also see if we could make it a flat max and limit the raises a bit). I think he likes being the man here and would sign off on it. I would then move win-now pieces (Sexton, Kessler, JCx2, maybe Dunn in a sign and trade). If Key, Taylor, Brice, Lofton, picks end up being awesome with Lauri and taking you to the play in... well then you likely have something really cooking long term.

If he is out on that I would quietly shop around.
 
stitches said:
And... much more importantly - how long is he going to stay? Or is it going to be a Mitchell/CLE situation where in 2 years you either lose him or have to trade him and start all over again...
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I think Ingram is by far the most available and likely "star". He is not top 15 by any means. He is a FA after this season but you could max him. What if he says no to Utah... we calling his bluff? We really want him on a max? What does Lauri/Ingram/Sexton get us in the West? What was the acquisition cost for this gamble?

Get into all those questions and you start to realize how far uphill we have to go.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Yeah I think there is a sweet spot you want to land in IF you are keeping Lauri... coming in around 5-6 is a balance between odds and not being complete ***. I just think you have to move one or both of Walker/Sexton if you want to keep Lauri and keep your pick in that range. It just feels like wasting another year of Lauri's prime. Make incremental improvements and that pick is going to OKC next year... the BIG moves all seem so meh (Ingram, Young, etc. ain't doing it for me). I would love some instant gratification with a playoff team but there is a cost associated with it... just like there is a cost associated with getting John Collins for "free".

I would sit down with Lauri and lay it out. Let him know its going to be him and the young fellas and if they aren't a for sure play-in team that we will manage the pick situation. I would make him whole by giving him even more that we have to in the renegotiation this year (I would also see if we could make it a flat max and limit the raises a bit). I think he likes being the man here and would sign off on it. I would then move win-now pieces (Sexton, Kessler, JCx2, maybe Dunn in a sign and trade). If Key, Taylor, Brice, Lofton, picks end up being awesome with Lauri and taking you to the play in... well then you likely have something really cooking long term.

If he is out on that I would quietly shop around.
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And I would point to OKC and what they did with Shai. It can be a quick turnaround if you get some luck and nail an extra pick. If you remember folks were talking about SGA potentially getting impatient (they also shut him down multiple times) before they ended up hitting big with Holmgren and Williams in one draft.
 
JimLes said:
Ok, let's look at this the other way then. In the past 30 years, the average spot where the NBA MVP was picked has been 9. Last decade, it's trended lower and it's 17. Of course, Jokić repeating skews that, but a number one pick hasn't won the MVP in more than a decade. Nor has anyone picked 2nd.

You wanna expand this a bit? Let's take top 5 MVP vote getters in the past 5 years. The average is 14. Of course, there are a lot of players repeating. It's only been 13 unique players getting top 5 votes the past 5 years. The average is 12 if you just take each of the 11 players once.

Of those 13 players, only 6 were drafted with the team's own pick of the team they were on when they got the votes. The other 7 were either obtained in trades or drafted with a pick obtained in trades. In other words, those picks had nothing to do with the records of those teams the year before. You know the average of the players drafted with their team's own picks and still on the team when they were getting these MVP votes? Twenty! Brunson and Jokić were both second round picks, Giannis went 15th, Booker went 13th, and Curry was 7th. The only one picked in top 5 of those six was Embiid at #3.

I mean, I'd love to tell you that teams get MVP level players by tanking and finishing bottom 5 in the league, but it doesn't look like it.
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Last 25 MVPs drafted into the NBA:



Player. Drafted

  1. Nikola Jokic 41
  2. Joel Embiid. 3
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo. 15
  4. James Harden. 3
  5. Russell Westbrook 4
  6. Steph Curry. 7
  7. Kevin Durant. 2
  8. LeBron James. 1
  9. Derrick Rose. 1
  10. Kobe Bryant. 13
  11. Dirk Nowitzki. 9
  12. Steve Nash. 15
  13. Kevin Garnett. 5
  14. Tim Duncan. 1
  15. Allen Iverson. 1
  16. Shaquille O’Neil. 1
  17. Karl Malone. 13
  18. Michael Jordan. 3
  19. David Robinson. 1
  20. Hakeem Olajuwon. 1
  21. Charles Barkley. 5
  22. Magic Johnson. 1
  23. Larry Bird. 6
  24. Moses Malone came from ABA
  25. Julius Erving 12
  26. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. 1




Number of MVPs drafted by pick

1st pick: 9

2nd pick: 1

3rd pick: 3

4th pick: 1

5th pick: 2

6th pick: 1

7th pick: 1

8th pick: 0

9th pick: 1

10th pick: 0

11th pick: 0

12th pick: 1

13th pick: 2

14th pick: 0

15th pick: 2

41st pick: 1

ABA: 1

Picks 16-40: 0

Picks 42-60: 0

All other: 0



1st picks look pretty good to me.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think Ingram is by far the most available and likely "star". He is not top 15 by any means. He is a FA after this season but you could max him. What if he says no to Utah... we calling his bluff? We really want him on a max? What does Lauri/Ingram/Sexton get us in the West? What was the acquisition cost for this gamble?

Get into all those questions and you start to realize how far uphill we have to go.
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Yup... you don't need Ingram... you need the equivalent of a Garnett(MVP level talent) for that to work... But Ainge has talked about how trading for Ray Allen was the conduit to getting Garnett... so... lets say we make an Ingram type trade(i.e. the Ray Allen of our build... not perfect comp but whatever )... now who is the next step... you need the big fish after that if you really want to compete... is Giannis going to become available any time soon? Luka IMO is pipe dream... but yeah... we have to be talking about THIS kind of trade...

What about Ja? First ... do we think he has THAT type of talent? And second - is he redeemable? And third - is he gettable?
 
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