No Democracy Lasts Forever….

[Al-O-Meter]

the Problem is that the Republicans have tied themselves to a smaller and smaller piece of the pie, old people, rural communities, racists, and the ultra-religious.

The polling doesn’t show the GOP tying themselves to a smaller and smaller piece of the pie. Trump is currently polling better right now than he was in either 2016 or 2020. Many left apparatchiks are panicking over how fast Black and Hispanic men are moving into Trump’s base of support. The outreach is there and it is showing in the polling data. Kamala is falling in the polls, especially in the battleground states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election



It doesn’t matter. I’ve said this before, but Orange County, California was a super right county. There aren’t rural areas. It is nice houses, shopping centers, and office parks from edge to edge. The first election after these changes were made to the system statewide, the local GOP candidates were leading in every poll. On election night, the counts were all going in their favor and then the trucks pulled up with the harvested votes. The vote counts looked exactly like they did in Michigan and Wisconsin, with vertical spikes to give the democrat challenger the win in every race.

It is no longer about ideas or outreach. How well financed and organized the ground game determines election outcomes under the new system. I'll believe the new system can be beat when I see someone beat it. So far, I haven't seen it defeated.

 

[Sardines]

The polling doesn’t show the GOP tying themselves to a smaller and smaller piece of the pie. Trump is currently polling better right now than he was in either 2016 or 2020. Many left apparatchiks are panicking over how fast Black and Hispanic men are moving into Trump’s base of support. The outreach is there and it is showing in the polling data. Kamala is falling in the polls, especially in the battleground states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election

View attachment 17347

It doesn’t matter. I’ve said this before, but Orange County, California was a super right county. There aren’t rural areas. It is nice houses, shopping centers, and office parks from edge to edge. The first election after these changes were made to the system statewide, the local GOP candidates were leading in every poll. On election night, the counts were all going in their favor and then the trucks pulled up with the harvested votes. The vote counts looked exactly like they did in Michigan and Wisconsin, with vertical spikes to give the democrat challenger the win in every race.

It is no longer about ideas or outreach. How well financed and organized the ground game determines election outcomes under the new system. I'll believe the new system can be beat when I see someone beat it. So far, I haven't seen it defeated.

I have really tried my best to understand why harvesting inherently benefits Democrats, rather than just enhancing the participation of their current supporters? Those supporters could become Republican voters. Then it would be an "unfair" advantage for Republicans. Your flex about the alpha demographic notwithstanding, which is actually counter to your argument about ballot harvesting.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

I have really tried my best to understand why harvesting inherently benefits Democrats, rather than just enhancing the participation of their current supporters? Those supporters could become Republican voters. Then it would be an "unfair" advantage for Republicans. Your flex about the alpha demographic notwithstanding, which is actually counter to your argument about ballot harvesting.

My argument is based purely on observation, not theory. You can quibble about how it theoretically could shift or be used equally, but in the real world I have not ever seen that. It always benefits democrats, and it is never reversible. Nationally, it is operators on the left trying to expand it and operators on the right fighting as hard as they can to contain it. Maybe your musings will prove correct but I'll believe it when I see it. I see Trump in a polling position that prior to 2018 would indicate a win, and I'm thinking there is a zero percent chance he'll win. I've seen this play out enough times that I'm confident in knowing how it ends. We won't have to wait long to see if I'm correct.

 

[Sardines]

My argument is based purely on observation, not theory. You can quibble about how it theoretically could shift or be used equally, but in the real world I have not ever seen that. It always benefits democrats, and it is never reversible. Nationally, it is operators on the left trying to expand it and operators on the right fighting as hard as they can to contain it. Maybe your musings will prove correct but I'll believe it when I see it. I see Trump in a polling position that prior to 2018 would indicate a win, and I'm thinking there is a zero percent chance he'll win. I've seen this play out enough times that I'm confident in knowing how it ends. We won't have to wait long to see if I'm correct.

I think polling is flawed atm because they are using assumptions based on behavior from 30+ years ago, and they do not have the ability to even create a modern model because it wouldn't be relevant from one election cycle to the next. Polling is probably broken for at least this Presidential election and the next. I think it depends on AI, so until AI either produces a reliable polling strategy or just goes ahead and tells us who is going to win, I don't think polling means anything.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

I think polling is flawed atm because they are using assumptions based on behavior from 30+ years ago, and they do not have the ability to even create a modern model because it wouldn't be relevant from one election cycle to the next. Polling is probably broken for at least this Presidential election and the next. I think it depends on AI, so until AI either produces a reliable polling strategy or just goes ahead and tells us who is going to win, I don't think polling means anything.

If the polls are broken and history is a guide, then the polls are undercounting Trump votes. I don't personally believe that. I think it is an idea being pushed into the public, like cutting down the Supreme Court, and getting rid of the US Constitution to save democracy.

The aspect to that last one I find so amusing is the crowd demanding more democracy to save us are the same ones upset at the Supreme Court ruling that struck down Roe v Wade. That ruling strengthened democracy. It took an issue that was locked away from democracy and made it subject to democracy. People look at what happened and cry about taking rights away, then 2 minutes later want to make everything that is locked away from democracy made subject to democracy.

Democracy always dies for the same reason Socialism always dies. It gets human nature wrong. It assumes the majority of people will seek to benefit the whole of society. Republics and capitalism endure because they operate on the assumption that people are selfish pricks who can only be reliably counted on to work for the benefit of themselves, their family, and close acquaintances they know directly at maximum.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Many left apparatchiks are panicking over how fast Black and Hispanic men are moving into Trump’s base of support.

Panicking.

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/g-s1-27633/barack-obama-kamala-harris-black-men-pennsylvania

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/10/obama-harris-rally-pittsburgh/

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/obama-pittsburgh-black-men-00183379

Obama launches campaign blitz in Pennsylvania, calls on Black men to support Harris' candidacy

Former President Barack Obama spoke candidly to Black men at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh, urging them to get behind Vice President Kamala Harris' candidacy.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Republics and capitalism endure because they operate on the assumption that people are selfish pricks who can only be reliably counted on to work for the benefit of themselves, their family, and close acquaintances they know directly at maximum.

If only a candidate was running on that platform instead of whatever ******** we are dealing with right now.

 

[Deleted member 365]

What’s the best way to ballot harvest for republicans? Cow manure, guns, bibles and porn stars? Does that work best?

What’s the best way to ballot Democrats? Books with rainbow covers?

Do ballots require a lot of rain and sunshine? If so, then the party with a weather machine will have a great advantage. What impact do Jewish space lasers have on harvests? Does Rudy Guilani’s ooze from his head help harvests to grow? What about Trump’s BO? Mar a lago seems to have a lot of silicone and Botox, can they be used to grow the harvest? Which fertilizer works best, newsman, oann, or Fox News? If a president orders ballot harvesting, it’s legal, cuz I’m pretty sure the Supreme Court said a president can do whatever they want.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

If the polls are broken and history is a guide, then the polls are undercounting Trump votes.

As of this morning:

 

[str8line]

As of this morning:

View attachment 17349

The cult is strong. Trump supporters can convince themselves of anything, including that The Rapist is a moral being sent by God almighty to stick a boot up the libtards ***-es. Keep in mind when you go out today that about half the people you meet are willing to take down our country by electing a traitor just to **** over anyone not in the cult.

 

[Red]

Fascist to the core….

Trump’s top general calls ex-president ‘fascist to the core’

General Mark Milley expressed his concerns about Trump to author Bob Woodward in March 2023

www.independent.co.uk

Mark Milley, the US Army general who Donald Trump appointed as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, now says the current Republican presidential nominee is a “fascist to the core” and says no person has ever posed more of a danger to the United States than the man who served as the 45th President of the United States.

Milley, a decorated military officer who became a target for right-wing scorn after it became known that he expressed concerns over Trump’s mental stability in the wake of his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, is described by journalist Bob Woodward in his new book, War, as incredibly alarmed at the prospect of a second Trump term in the White House. The Independent obtained a copy ahead of the book’s October 15 release date.

In the wake of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by a riotous mob of the then-president’s supporters, Woodward writes that Milley insisted on securing a meeting with the then-newly-minted attorney general, Merrick Garland, to urge him to investigate domestic violent extremism and far-right militia movements.

According to Woodward, a senior Department of Justice lawyer said at the time that Milley’s sit-down with Garland might have been the first-ever meeting between a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the country’s top civilian law enforcement official. He writes that the general asked for the meeting because he was “deeply convinced” that Trump remained “a danger to the country” even though he had been forced from office after Biden’s election win.

But the Army veteran expressed even more strident concerns to Woodward himself at a March 2023 meeting at the Willard Hotel in Washington, DC.

Woodward writes that when he approached Milley at a reception, the general spoke first and told him: “We gotta talk.”

He told the journalist that “no one has ever been as dangerous to this country” as the former president.


He asked: “Do you realize, do you see what this man is?”

Milley, who had been a source for Woodward’s last book, Peril, said he’d “glimpsed” Trump’s true nature when they previously spoke during the writing of that 2021 release, but he said he now knew exactly what the ex-president is.

“He is the most dangerous person ever. I had suspicions when I talked to you about his mental decline and so forth, but now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is now the most dangerous person to this country,” he said.

“A fascist to the core,” Milley repeated.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Trump has been depicting all of America as a place of tremendous peril: “You can’t walk across the street to get a loaf of bread. You get shot, you get mugged, you get raped, you get whatever it may be and you’ve seen it and I’ve seen it.” Yet crime rates across the nation are down this year, including for murder.

A critical piece of his disinformation strategy...

"His disinformation strategy". So much wishful thinking going on. If you click on the links to find the source for the data showing crime rates being down, it is always the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The UCR is manipulated. The FBI admits right up front the UCR only reflects information from "participating agencies", and if data from an agency will have too negative of an impact then they aren't participating in the statistics that year.

The FBI has a different crime report that isn't selectively curated from "participating agencies". It is the FBI's National Crime Victimization Survey.

the Bureau conducts its own survey, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). It relies on responses from some 230,000 households, rather than law enforcement agencies, and found that violent crime rose by 19 percent between 2019 and 2023. Anderson also stresses that the urban violent crime rate is rising even faster: up 54 percent between 2019 and 2023, which is more in line with public perception.

https://thehill.com/opinion/4908415-fbi-crime-report-shoplifting/

Trump's supposed disinformation strategy is to voice the findings of the FBI.