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The value of finishing in the bottom 5

I

idiot

Well-Known Member
We're hoping that a bottom-5 finish allows us to draft up a player who can eventually become the top player on a championship team for us. Though it's hard to think soberly about this with the narrative that tanking is self-evidently the best path to a championship (or only path for small markets?), it might be worth a reminder of how unlikely this is (having a drafted player from a bottom-5 finish lead the team he is drafted on and had that bottom-5 finish to a championship -- without returning in free agency, like Lebron).

Let's take a look at what bottom-5 finishes have given to teams over the past 25 years (since the 2000 draft). This encompasses about 128 bottom-5 finishes (since there were a few ties for 5th in that period). It also encompasses 60 "episodes" of bottom 5 finishes (which could include a single year, or multiple years in close succession finishing bottom-5):
  • 1 player drafted because of the bottom-5 finish led his team to (just a single) championship as the best player on the team (D. Wade -- drafted 22 years ago; it hasn't happened since, though maybe Wemby has the best chance among those who still fit the criteria)
  • 4 players drafted became the best player on a Finals-losing team (Luka, Lebron, Durant, Dwight -- only one of them drafted in the past 17 years)
  • 2 players were the 2nd-best player on Finals winners (Kyrie, D. Wade in the Heattles era)
  • 5 additional players became the best player on a conference finals loser (including Deron Williams)
  • Only 22 total became the best player on a playoff team of any kind with the team that drafted them (about 17%)
  • Out of the 60 bottom-5 episodes, in 19 of these (or nearly 1/3 of all such episodes) no player(s) drafted even went to the playoffs with the team that drafted them
We can enjoy the tank race all we want, but it might be better for our sanity if we don't have unrealistic expectations for what it will produce.
 
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idiot said:
We're hoping that a bottom-5 finish allows us to draft up a player who can eventually become the top player on a championship team for us. Though it's hard to think soberly about this with the narrative that tanking is self-evidently the best path to a championship (or only path for small markets?), it might be worth a reminder of how unlikely this is (having a drafted player from a bottom-5 finish lead the team he is drafted on and had that bottom-5 finish to a championship -- without returning in free agency, like Lebron).

Let's take a look at what bottom-5 finishes have given to teams over the past 25 years (since the 2000 draft). This encompasses about 128 bottom-5 finishes (since there were a few ties for 5th in that period). It also encompasses 60 "episodes" of bottom 5 finishes (which could include a single year, or multiple years in close succession finishing bottom-5):
  • 1 player drafted because of the bottom-5 finish led his team to (just a single) championship as the best player on the team (D. Wade -- drafted 22 years ago; it hasn't happened since, though maybe Wemby has the best chance among those who still fit the criteria)
  • 4 players drafted became the best player on a Finals-losing team (Luka, Lebron, Durant, Dwight -- only one of them drafted in the past 17 years)
  • 2 players were the 2nd-best player on Finals winners (Kyrie, D. Wade in the Heattles era)
  • 5 additional players became the best player on a conference finals loser (including Deron Williams)
  • Only 22 total became the best player on a playoff team of any kind with the team that drafted them (about 17%)
  • Out of the 60 bottom-5 episodes, in 19 of these (or nearly 1/3 of all such episodes) no player(s) drafted even went to the playoffs with the team that drafted them
We can enjoy the tank race all we want, but it might be better for our sanity if we don't have unrealistic expectations for what it will produce.
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Well that was depressing.
 
The alternative is to what, actively root for something that doesn’t give us anything?

Yes, it is important to remember that the draft isn’t magic, but I’ve actually found this counter tanking message to be almost as annoying. I am complete agreement with @idiot that the value is not much, but it’s beating a dead horse at this point. We get it.

It’s not even a conversation. This is really no different than the one sided “tanking is the only way” BS. It’s just complaining that the current approach is unlikely. There is no consideration for another approach. I’m all ears if there’s a conversation to be had about “we should actually try to win these games”, “we shouldn’t do this next year”, or even “we shouldn’t have done it this year”. But this one way conversation of “this is unlikely” really means nothing on its own.

It’s the equivalent of being that nagging fan that says “we should tank” and tries to say I told you so if we don’t win the championship.
 
Talent is talent. You have to use every tool in the toolbox. Tanking sucks, but if you believe in your evaluation process (and the early flashes from KG, Collier, Kessler & Filipowski suggests they do), you just draft who you like the most.

My guess is that the Jazz are hoping to luck out and win the Flagg sweepstakes and then shift from asset collection mode to star hunting mode. If they miss out of Flagg, I have no idea what they do.
 
Of course, a top 5 finish is no guarantee of getting a bona-fide #1 guy on a championship team.

But in this year's draft, IMO there's a clear-cut top 5, all of whom I think will turn into high-impact guys and probably would have gone #1 last year. Flagg is in his own tier.

The way I look at it, we have a 67% chance of getting one of those guys based on where we currently sit which I feel pretty good about. IMO, finishing #6 would be a huge let down, and finishing #7 would be flat out devastating.
 
So what are the comps for Flag, what does he project to turn into, just assuming that he turns into 100% of his potential, what then?
 
HadAnEffectHere said:
I mean, yes, the most likely outcome for the next three to five years of tanking is the current Orlando Magic. I'm not sure many people doubt that other than like Ryan Smit
Click to expand...

LogGrad98 said:
So what are the comps for Flag, what does he project to turn into, just assuming that he turns into 100% of his potential, what then?
Click to expand...

He forces his way out of the franchise that drafted him within 4-5 years and miraculously ends up with the Celtics or Lakers
 
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