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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

bigmike said:
The Rudy Gay - Ace Bailey comp doesn't sit well with me.

The cloud that hangs over Rudy Gay's career (fair or not, I have no opinion) seems to be one of laziness, lack of drive, untapped potential, etc. I don't see that with Ace at all. His game is unrefined and lacks nuance but he is ultra-talented and goes really hard. If anything I see more of a Westbrook streak that you may have to "rein in" vs. someone who is going to leave some gas in the tank in terms of getting the most out of their abilities.
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Rudy Gay couldn't handle the ball much beyond making straight-line drives. He settled for bad shots when he otherwise wouldn't have to. I think Ace will have some ability to create his own drives in NBA spacing. Although Ace hasn't been great handling, passing or making decisions, I think he'll be better than Rudy Gay was. And ultimately, I think he'll be better than Trey Murphy.
 
KqWIN said:
Are you sure that Ace shot the ball like you seem to think Ace did?
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Yeah, Ace is a more natural and skilled shooter/shot maker. He can shoot off the dribble. He can shoot off-balance. He can shoot off of fades and turnarounds. Rudy was a "square-up-and-wind-up" guy.

Ace should look noticeably different on an NBA floor.
 
Does anyone have access to the advanced shooting numbers for this year? E.g. catch and shoot, off the dribble, at the rim, etc.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Yeah, Ace is a more natural and skilled shooter/shot maker. He can shoot off the dribble. He can shoot off-balance. He can shoot off of fades and turnarounds. Rudy was a "square-up-and-wind-up" guy.

Ace should look noticeably different on an NBA floor.
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You might be right about 40 year old Rudy Gay, but I don’t think that’s what people really mean when they compare him to Rudy Gay. Rudy Gay was a great shot maker over the course of his career, that’s what he’s known for. Unfortunately, he’s also known for not being much of a winning player because that’s about all he did. He didn’t get to the efficient areas to score and he was a ball stopper. These are the major concerns with Ace.

As far as Ace’s shooting, he was totally unremarkable both in volume and accuracy from 3. When you say that Gay didn’t shoot it like Ace, yes he did. Rudy Gay was an unremarkable 3 point shooter just like Ace. Ace was nothing close to an elite volume shooter like Trey or post 30 PG. He could always improve, of course, but when you say “shot it like Ace” that implies Ace has already done that and not that you’re projecting an extreme amount of development on his shooting.

I think the case for Ace is that maybe if you develop Rudy Gay in 2025 instead of 2006 you might be able to turn him into a better, winning player. The talent is there just as it was for Rudy Gay, but I think the questions about his desire to play smarter and his capacity to improve his bbiq are also similar.
 
I mean, if Rudy Gay shot more 3s he'd be looked at as being much better. Ace is going to shoot a lot of 3s.
 
bigmike said:
The Rudy Gay - Ace Bailey comp doesn't sit well with me.

The cloud that hangs over Rudy Gay's career (fair or not, I have no opinion) seems to be one of laziness, lack of drive, untapped potential, etc. I don't see that with Ace at all. His game is unrefined and lacks nuance but he is ultra-talented and goes really hard. If anything I see more of a Westbrook streak that you may have to "rein in" vs. someone who is going to leave some gas in the tank in terms of getting the most out of their abilities.
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I've probably watched Ace more than any other prospect this year, and while I'm just one person's opinion I would have to disagree with the way you view his mentality. I wouldn't say he's low motor player, but I think it's inconsistent. He is the best athlete on the court pretty much at all times, but I don't think he makes his presence felt consistently. He has great moments on defense when he's locked in and is able to make great plays with his athleticism, other times he looks indifferent and you don't even realize he's on the court. The only thing he does a lot of is shoot a lot of shots, but that doesn't strike me as a WB mentality. Rudy Gay shot a lot of shots as well. His offensive game honestly feels really lazy to me. He often doesn't work hard for better shots and is totally content jacking up the most egregious mid range shots. "Settling" is probably the best way to describe his offensive game right now. I actually do think he has the ability to do more and get to more efficient shots, but there doesn't seem to be a willingness or want-to. That is very reminiscent of Rudy Gay.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I mean, if Rudy Gay shot more 3s he'd be looked at as being much better. Ace is going to shoot a lot of 3s.
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I think that's kind of the appeal with Ace. I think he's a similar talent to Rudy Gay, but maybe if you take Rudy Gay and put him into the 2025 draft instead of the 2006 draft he becomes a good player. A lot of this will come down to Ace's willingness and natural ability to pick up things and learn. I get the impression that he's basically been allowed to do whatever he wants up until this point. You could say that's a better than simply not having the ability, but I do wonder about his poor habits and the extent to which they can be changed.
 
KqWIN said:
You talking about his HS stats? If that's your thing, go for it I guess. I will lean on the season he just had more than HS stats that may or may not even exist and I have no context on.
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You would be silly to ignore it, especially the FT line percentage. These guys don't start playing basketball in college and players can have off shooting seasons.

Yes, the difference between the HS/College line is around 2 ft and change, so he had some issues extending his range, but he is definitely a good shooter with sound mechanics and a quick high release.
 
KqWIN said:
I think that's kind of the appeal with Ace. I think he's a similar talent to Rudy Gay, but maybe if you take Rudy Gay and put him into the 2025 draft instead of the 2006 draft he becomes a good player. A lot of this will come down to Ace's willingness and natural ability to pick up things and learn. I get the impression that he's basically been allowed to do whatever he wants up until this point. You could say that's a better than simply not having the ability, but I do wonder about his poor habits and the extent to which they can be changed.
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To be clear, Rudy Gay was definitely a good player in his prime. Just because Memphis improved when they traded him doesn't mean he was bad. He just never got on a good team context for his career after the Memphis situation.
 
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