Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025

[gandalfe]

Question for percentages people. If we have counted down from #14-6 and no team has jumped into the top 4 yet. What are the chances at that moment the Jazz are #5?

So, the top 5 teams have the following number of balls:
1: 140
2: 140
3: 140
4: 125
5: 105

Add those up, and there are 650. That means there is about a 21.5% chance of us getting chosen for 1, 2, 3, or 4, for a total of about 86%. Meaning at the point there would be about a 14% chance of us getting the #5.

 

[Strutter]

Anyone know the best way to watch tonight? (If I can handle the anxiety, ha)

EDIT: Never mind, found it. 5:00 mountain on ESPN

 

[SoberasHotRod]

So, the top 5 teams have the following number of balls:
1: 140
2: 140
3: 140
4: 125
5: 105

Add those up, and there are 650. That means there is about a 21.5% chance of us getting chosen for 1, 2, 3, or 4, for a total of about 86%. Meaning at the point there would be about a 14% chance of us getting the #5.

There are different odds for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick. In this scenario we would have a 20.7% chance at 2, 20% chance at 3, and 19.4% chance at 4. Add those together and the difference is 18.5% chance at 5th.

That's how I got to my math at least.

 

[Hedda Gambler]

The draft is scheduled to start at 1am my time, but in NBA terms that probably means a lot later. Being an old man, I have resorted to drinking to be able to stay up. Cheers and good luck guys and gals.

 

[gandalfe]

Anyone know the best way to watch tonight? (If I can handle the anxiety, ha)

EDIT: Never mind, found it. 5:00 mountain on ESPN

There are different odds for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick. In this scenario we would have a 20.7% chance at 2, 20% chance at 3, and 19.4% chance at 4. Add those together and the difference is 18.5% chance at 5th.

That's how I got to my math at least.

Yeah, the odds are different just because the first pick is done, then the second, and so on. Still, on the order of 15-20%.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

OK, nevermind on the other scenarios. It would depend too much on who jumped in to the top 4 and who fell to 6th and I don't want to calculate all of that out.

If we get to the 5th pick and no team has jumped in to the lottery yet then the Jazz will have a 21% chance at number one and a 81% chance at a top 4 pick, if I calculated it correctly.

Even though I'm not going to calculate every scenario out, as a rule of thumb if anyone jumps in to the top 4 we want it to be the team with the worst odds, and we want the team that falls to 6th to be either Washington or Charlotte. For example if Atlanta isn't the 14th pick and Charlotte or Washington are the 6th pick, then we will have a 27% chance at having the first pick.

 

[Hedda Gambler]

Even though I'm not going to calculate every scenario out, as a rule of thumb if anyone jumps in to the top 4 we want it to be the team with the worst odds, and we want the team that falls to 6th to be either Washington or Charlotte. For example if Atlanta isn't the 14th pick and Charlotte or Washington are the 6th pick, then we will have a 27% chance at having the first pick.

But do we foul do extend our possibilites of the number one pick, or do we let the Pels get up a three to capture Cooper Flagg?

 

[LogGrad98]

Another way to look at this is that if they go through the 14-6th picks and you notice 2 teams are out of order with the Jazz not mentioned yet then those 2 teams that got skipped have better odds of being in the top 4 than the Jazz do.

 

[infection]

Another way to look at this is that if they go through the 14-6th picks and you notice 2 teams are out of order with the Jazz not mentioned yet then those 2 teams that got skipped have better odds of being in the top 4 than the Jazz do.

Unfortunately true.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

It's a funny feeling to be "excited" for an event where you have a 47.9% chance of getting kicked in the balls.

for me it's a 60% chance of getting kicked in the balls. fml.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

So, the top 5 teams have the following number of balls:
1: 140
2: 140
3: 140
4: 125
5: 105

Add those up, and there are 650. That means there is about a 21.5% chance of us getting chosen for 1, 2, 3, or 4, for a total of about 86%. Meaning at the point there would be about a 14% chance of us getting the #5.

no. they have a 47.9% chance at getting #5. the math has already been done for us. 14% at #1, 13.4% for #2, 12.7% for #3, 12% for #4 and 47.9% at #5.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Another way to look at this is that if they go through the 14-6th picks and you notice 2 teams are out of order with the Jazz not mentioned yet then those 2 teams that got skipped have better odds of being in the top 4 than the Jazz do.

LOL, true, but if the bottom odds teams jump in to the top 4 and the non-Utah higher odds teams are 6+, then our odds of drafting one increase. For example if Atlanta, Sacramento, and Chicago jump in to the top 4, and WAS, CHA, and NOP are some order of 6-7, then the Jazz have a 54% chance of being the first pick. (Or something like that)