Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025

[Hearsky]

Post a picture or a gif of the elation of getting the top pick or the dissapointment of getting the 5th pick tonight.

Here goes:


Pick #1 or pick #5

 

[SoberasHotRod]

no. they have a 47.9% chance at getting #5. the math has already been done for us. 14% at #1, 13.4% for #2, 12.7% for #3, 12% for #4 and 47.9% at #5.

If we get to 5 and nobody has jumped in to the top 4, you can eliminate the odds for their picks, which is the math that he was doing.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Remind me what that thread was again? I seriously don’t remember.

Quit trying to **** up this year as well!

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Quit trying to **** up this year as well!

Then why the hell are you talking and making a fool of yourself now I’m gonna go look for it.

 

[gandalfe]

no. they have a 47.9% chance at getting #5. the math has already been done for us. 14% at #1, 13.4% for #2, 12.7% for #3, 12% for #4 and 47.9% at #5.

No, the question was, specifically if we get from #s 14 thru 6 and nobody moves up, what are the chances AT THAT MOMENT.

 

[gandalfe]

If we get to 5 and nobody has jumped in to the top 4, you can eliminate the odds for their picks, which is the math that he was doing.

Actually, I just realized, at that point we just have to figure out what are the chances that our pick is #5, and there are only 105 combinations that would fit that? I think, which is 16%.

 

[416Klawzz]

I wonder if the league screws us again. If we get #1 then the basketball gods smile upon us

 

[LogGrad98]

LOL, true, but if the bottom odds teams jump in to the top 4 and the non-Utah higher odds teams are 6+, then our odds of drafting one increase. For example if Atlanta, Sacramento, and Chicago jump in to the top 4, and WAS, CHA, and NOP are some order of 6-7, then the Jazz have a 54% chance of being the first pick. (Or something like that)

 

[Jingled]

This day is dragging...I'm so damn nervous.

 

[LogGrad98]

No, the question was, specifically if we get from #s 14 thru 6 and nobody moves up, what are the chances AT THAT MOMENT.

It's still 14% until you open the 5th pick. It's Schrödinger's pick until the pick is revealed.

 

[infection]

It's still 14% until you open the 5th pick. It's Schrödinger's pick until the pick is revealed.

It's Log's lottery. We're 5th and the outside world is waiting to observe Log's observation.

 

[gandalfe]

It's still 14% until you open the 5th pick. It's Schrödinger's pick until the pick is revealed.

I think you need to revisit the Monty Hall problem.

Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org