Marc Stein: Jazz-Warriors discuss pre-Lottery trade (Source says trade "likely")

[billyshelby]

I get it and don't disagree but we hold all the cards here. They're the desperate party. They're coming to us because they want to ensure they get this year's 1st. And for me, next year's unprotected 1st + #30 this year may be equal to or less than if we were to get the #8 this year based on the fact that that 1st next year could net us a mediocre player and there's obviously no sure thing that the #30 would wind up with anything past a first contract. In other words, why do it? Obviously we only have a 28% chance to get their 1st this year but still. #35 for me raises those odds exponentially (one of the three--#30, 35 or next year's first would likely wind up being a guy to contribute quality minutes imo) and brings this to where it make sense for me. Otherwise, I'd say **** you to them and roll the dice in three days.

I think we could get next year's first (unprotected), #30, AND #35 with the Warriors getting their 1st this year (conditions revoked) and our #47. I think this is pretty damn fair all the way around. probably a little more fair for us but like I said, we're holding the cards here so I think the details are right where they should be, all things considered. They'd still get #7 (or lower), #47 and #52 this year and be able too work them into a core with Curry, Thompson, Jefferson, Bogut, Lee, Biedrins, and Wright. Not bad.

This is pie in the sky. We will never get next year's pick unprotected. Or even the following year. Any guaranteed 1st will come after the current deal expires, and conditions on that deal are likely to change in exchange for making the deal in the first place.

The one slight alternative is KOC may be able to get them to lower the restrictions: ie., Top 7 protected next year (as before), Top 3 the year after (major concession from 6). They'd probably balk at that, though.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I would hope so. So we could get a shot at Royce White, by putting together those picks.

Two things;

1) No. We couldn't get White as he'll go around 21/22 and we couldn't trade the picks to move up to that spot.
2) Doesn't matter, because there would be guys at 30 that are likely to be as good as Royce.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

I would hope so. So we could get a shot at Royce White, by putting together those picks.

Or, while I'm dreaming...

Jefferson + #35 + a future protected 1st for #4 overall to draft MKG

Warriors unprotected 1st next year for #10 (or so) to get Lillard

Use #30 on Jenkins

Sign Nash to three years, 27M, frontloaded.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

This is pie in the sky. We will never get next year's pick unprotected. Or even the following year. Any guaranteed 1st will come after the current deal expires, and conditions on that deal are likely to change in exchange for making the deal in the first place.

The one slight alternative is KOC may be able to get them to lower the restrictions: ie., Top 7 protected next year (as before), Top 3 the year after (major concession from 6). They'd probably balk at that, though.

Then I wish them the best of luck. We hold the cards. And that's why they came to us.

 

[Deleted member 365]

I think you edited your post, but when I first read it I thought you were saying to trade Al for GS's pick right after you scolded all of us folks for posting ridiculous trades.

Carry on, folks.

Nope. I didn't edit my post. But it's all good man. It's a lazy Sunday.

After watching SA defeat OKC in a game that OKC played really well in showed to me even more why we need to unload Jefferson. OKC can get along fine without passing the ball very well... Because their big 3 is almost unguardable. Jefferson is very much guardable.

SA moves the ball around despite having 2 players who are impossible to defend (Manu and Tony).

We don't have really anyone that can break down the defense the way Manu and Tony do. Perhaps hayward? Someday? And Jefferson is just a ball stopper.

We need to unload Jefferson. At this point, any trade would suffice IMO. It doesn't matter if we don't get another very good player in return. Sometimes you become better by subtracting someone from your team. I have no doubt in my mind we'd be better without Jefferson. Yes, sometimes we'd miss his shotblocking or weezy. But the reality is, his ball stopping and lazy defense hurts us far more than going with a (lesser) talented center.

Finally, we really need to add more pieces. Watching OKC and SA play tonight just reminded me even more how important the draft is. We need to get longer, quicker, deeper, and better. Leonard, Collison, Ginobli, Harden, Ibaka, etc are all studs drafted at very different times. The talent is out there. We just need to scout folks out and draft'em.

* I really hope that Alec Burks works hard this summer. Otherwise, we're going to look back at last year's draft and hit our heads against the wall. Leonard is a friggin stud who might have a Shawn Marion like career (never a superstar but a super role player).
** Anyone hear Pop's chewing out in the 2nd half? "ARE WE HAVING FUN YET? EACH ROUND GETS HARDER AND HARDER!" It was awesome. I have a hard time seeing Corbin (ever) take control of a huddle like that. We need an *** kicker as coach. Someone who commands respect and leads this team to victory. Corbin hasn't shown me that he can be "mean" and "nasty" and motivate this team. Hopefully I'm wrong...

 

[Dr. Jones]

Then I wish them the best of luck. We hold the cards. And that's why they came to us.

This. Damn, Billy, you seem to be way off on this topic. WTF is GSW coming to us with, then?

It's like, "hey Jazz, we're a bit concerned about losing our pick in this year's insanely deep draft." And the Jazz are like, "Well we would like to help you out guys, how about we just let you have it and you agree to let us have it next year." .. and GSW are like, naw, we were hoping your generocity could go unreciprocated."

 

[shadler]

Not a very good list of players at 8 for those who think we are going to get a great player at 8.




2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland
1999 Andre Miller UtahSr. Cleveland
1998 Larry Hughes Saint Louis Philadelphia
1997 Adonal Foyle Colgate Golden State
1996 Kerry Kittles Villanova New Jersey
1995 Shawn Respert Michigan State Portland
1994 Brian Grant Xavier (Ohio) Sacramento
1993 Vin Baker Hartford Milwaukee
1992 Todd Day Arkansas Milwaukee
1991 Mark Macon Temple Denver
1990 Bo Kimble Loyola Marymount LA Clippers
1989 Randy White Louisiana Tech Dallas
1988 Rex Chapman Kentucky NO Hornets
1987 Olden Polynice Virginia Chicago
1986 Ron Harper Miami(OH) Cleveland
1985 Detlef Schrempf Washington Dallas
1984 Lancaster Gordon Louisville LA Clippers
1983 Antoine Carr Wichita State Detroit
1982 Clark Kellogg Ohio State Indiana
1981 Tom Chambers Utah San Diego
1980 Andrew Toney SW Louisiana Philadelphia

 

[billyshelby]

Then I wish them the best of luck. We hold the cards. And that's why they came to us.

They came to us looking to eliminate the 25% risk they lose this year's pick. A very reasonable proposition any team in their situation would explore. It doesn't mean they're going to do something unreasonable to get it. They hold more cards than we do.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Not a very good list of players at 8 for those who think we are going to get a great player at 8.




2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland
1999 Andre Miller UtahSr. Cleveland
1998 Larry Hughes Saint Louis Philadelphia
1997 Adonal Foyle Colgate Golden State
1996 Kerry Kittles Villanova New Jersey
1995 Shawn Respert Michigan State Portland
1994 Brian Grant Xavier (Ohio) Sacramento
1993 Vin Baker Hartford Milwaukee
1992 Todd Day Arkansas Milwaukee
1991 Mark Macon Temple Denver
1990 Bo Kimble Loyola Marymount LA Clippers
1989 Randy White Louisiana Tech Dallas
1988 Rex Chapman Kentucky NO Hornets
1987 Olden Polynice Virginia Chicago
1986 Ron Harper Miami(OH) Cleveland
1985 Detlef Schrempf Washington Dallas
1984 Lancaster Gordon Louisville LA Clippers
1983 Antoine Carr Wichita State Detroit
1982 Clark Kellogg Ohio State Indiana
1981 Tom Chambers Utah San Diego
1980 Andrew Toney SW Louisiana Philadelphia

Why don't you post the players taken at #35? Or #13, which is what GSW's pick might be next year.
This year's #8 is going to be a decent player to keep or use as an asset in a trade--e.g., Barnes, Sullinger, PJIII, Marshall, Lillard, etc.
There's a reason why GSW wants this pick bad enough to throw away a season and ask the Jazz for this deal.
Unless the Ws offer something significant, the Jazz shouldn't just walk away from a chance to get that pick.

 

[Deleted member 365]

Not a very good list of players at 8 for those who think we are going to get a great player at 8.




2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland
1999 Andre Miller UtahSr. Cleveland
1998 Larry Hughes Saint Louis Philadelphia
1997 Adonal Foyle Colgate Golden State
1996 Kerry Kittles Villanova New Jersey
1995 Shawn Respert Michigan State Portland
1994 Brian Grant Xavier (Ohio) Sacramento
1993 Vin Baker Hartford Milwaukee
1992 Todd Day Arkansas Milwaukee
1991 Mark Macon Temple Denver
1990 Bo Kimble Loyola Marymount LA Clippers
1989 Randy White Louisiana Tech Dallas
1988 Rex Chapman Kentucky NO Hornets
1987 Olden Polynice Virginia Chicago
1986 Ron Harper Miami(OH) Cleveland
1985 Detlef Schrempf Washington Dallas
1984 Lancaster Gordon Louisville LA Clippers
1983 Antoine Carr Wichita State Detroit
1982 Clark Kellogg Ohio State Indiana
1981 Tom Chambers Utah San Diego
1980 Andrew Toney SW Louisiana Philadelphia

I think a better study would be to put the names of players available at #8.

A more accurate story would be to see who will most likely be available at #8 in this draft. If you don't think that someone like Marshall couldn't help this team then you've obviously never seen basketball.

Ask the Spurs and OKC if the draft is useless after #8..... Collison, Ibaka, Parker, Ginobli, Leonard..... Yep, useless players.

Speaking of history, where were Karl Malone and John Stockton drafted?

Lastly, your post seems to indicate that the draft has a level of diminishing return. So at what draft pick does it become "bad" or "worthless?" Either you admit that each draft is different and that a very good player could and will be available at this year's #8 or you name the spot where it becomes "bad" or "non-worthwhile."

Is it after #2? After #5? After #7? At what point should teams drafting become concerned with their pick and look to trade out of it because "historically" it hasn't yielded superstar players? I await your response...

 

[billyshelby]

This. Damn, Billy, you seem to be way off on this topic. WTF is GSW coming to us with, then?

It's like, "hey Jazz, we're a bit concerned about losing our pick in this year's insanely deep draft." And the Jazz are like, "Well we would like to help you out guys, how about we just let you have it and you agree to let us have it next year." .. and GSW are like, naw, we were hoping your generocity could go unreciprocated."

If GS offers a guaranteed 1st, something we don't currently have, that's giving up something. And for a rebuilding team, that hurts. GS has to psyche themselves up like a gambler on a run of bad luck. Like, "We'll turn this around and that unconditional pick in 15 will be 18-25 because we'll be a playoff team."

If I'm KOC, I'd take that bet. And lets not forget the other value of doing that: trading the GS pick now is troubled because any team that acquires it realizes they may get nothing from it. An actual first, however uncertain, is still a first. It becomes a much more marketable commodity.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

They came to us looking to eliminate the 25% risk they lose this year's pick. A very reasonable proposition any team in their situation would explore. It doesn't mean they're going to do something unreasonable to get it. They hold more cards than we do.

Sure. And the Jazz should probably say, "No thanks," and call it a day, unless the Ws offer something of significance to us. Even with some time out for injuries, next season the Ws project to be close to a .500 team (think Milwaukee Bucks), meaning lowering their pick protection is likely to be an empty offer. If the Ws want to offer #30 + #35, then maybe that's valuable assuming we have a real use for these picks. However, we might just as well take the 28% chance that we get the #8 pick, then take a ~20% chance that we get a meaningful player at #30 or #35 or that the Ws removing pick protections will make a difference to us in a year.