Denouncing God

[theNBAnerd]

Points per shot is a terrible metric; there are far better stats out there (TS%, PPP from mysynergy). Nerd knows this, but uses this stat when it supports his arguments. A complete lack of intellectual integrity.

i was responding to a comment about how gordon's stats move from one game to the next, so i was looking at game logs. i could have easily posted PPP and it would have told the same impressive story for the last 16 games of hayward's year. i could have used any number of stats that all told a similar story, so i chose the one that was most accessible. calm down, that's not intellectual irresponsibility or whatever. my point is still true no matter which metric i use to make it.

fwiw, gh's total ppp for that 16-game stretch is 1.08... 5 pts per 100 better than the team as a whole. he has been our most consistently efficient offensive threat, and yet his role has been cut back so we can watch foye continue to not guard anybody.

 

[AshleyArmchair]

Crazy boys!
Haywards are best player I bet you ne thing he's Allstar by year five. He got better at everything every year what more do you want? Topless pics like raja I bet is all.

 

[NUMBERICA]

He's good, he's young, and the Jazz need perimeter players desperately. I think the issue is that nobody is sure trading Hayward gets you a player better than Hayward. Pretty simple.

 

[The Fresh Prince]

Is it because the Haywerd is untouchable?

 

[HeavenHarris]

well not to get all racialist but certain players have more value in certain markets that go beyond on-court stuff. for example jeremy lin and yao have higher value in a big asian market like houston just because of the merchandise/tix sales from fans that like to root for asians. i could see the jazz seeing this angle and keeping it in consideration when doing trades. probably not very high on their list of priorities, but maybe in the back of their minds.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

How is PPP a good indicator for an individual's offensive play? A team sure, but a player? Also, I'd like an explanation on why TS% (Hayward's has gone down every year in the league as has his eFG%) is a better indicator as well.

GVC, if you could please answer this, I'd appreciate it. Thanks.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

In the 1,987,423 trade proposals that pop up on this site, why is it that rarely, if ever, Mr. Hayward is mentioned? Do Jazz fans feel he is a cornerstone/untouchable player on the team? I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't think Hayward will ever be elite/All-Star player some Jazz fans think he will become. He's the most overrated player on the Jazz IMO. The guy is equally as inconsistent as previous Jazz-Player Whipping Boys, AK47 and CJ Miles, yet he seems to get a pass. I'm tired of hearing Bolerjack or Harpring say "Hayward had a good game tonight, maybe this is a breakout game for him" then we proceed to watch him stink it up for the next game.

I hope the Jazz don't shut the door on any trade offers that include Hayward if it could bring us back a legit PG and/or picks.

That is all.

By your logic we should also trade Favors. I'll say this is one of the dumbest posts I've ever read. Congrats...

 

[mct]

GVC, if you could please answer this, I'd appreciate it. Thanks.

I'll try. PPS makes free throws way more important than they actually are. Someone who makes a field goal is just as efficient as someone who gets fouled and makes both free throws, but, when using PPS, it looks like they earned those points without even taking a shot. It's still impressive when Hayward gets 19 points on 6 shots, but he's not magic. The other team still gets the ball back when he's done shooting free throws.

TS% counts 44% (or something) of every FTA as a FGA, which makes it a better indicator of a player's shooting efficiency. However, even it is not a perfect measure of offensive efficiency because it doesn't count TOs as wasted possessions.

PPP adds TOs in with the FGAs and .44FTAs. If I remember right, it even subtracts a player's offensive rebounds. This does give an advantage to bigs. I would like it way better if instead they somehow went through the play-by-plays and subtracted FGAs that resulted in an offensive rebound instead, but that's impossible to do just from box score data. Maybe synergy does this with their PPP. I'm not sure.

 

[cctrackstar]

well not to get all racialist but certain players have more value in certain markets that go beyond on-court stuff. for example jeremy lin and yao have higher value in a big asian market like houston just because of the merchandise/tix sales from fans that like to root for asians. i could see the jazz seeing this angle and keeping it in consideration when doing trades. probably not very high on their list of priorities, but maybe in the back of their minds.

Let me adjust your post a little by saying that perhaps his trade value to other teams is diminished because of his -well- race.

 

[theNBAnerd]

I'll try. PPS makes free throws way more important than they actually are. Someone who makes a field goal is just as efficient as someone who gets fouled and makes both free throws, but, when using PPS, it looks like they earned those points without even taking a shot. It's still impressive when Hayward gets 19 points on 6 shots, but he's not magic. The other team still gets the ball back when he's done shooting free throws.

TS% counts 44% (or something) of every FTA as a FGA, which makes it a better indicator of a player's shooting efficiency. However, even it is not a perfect measure of offensive efficiency because it doesn't count TOs as wasted possessions.

PPP adds TOs in with the FGAs and .44FTAs. If I remember right, it even subtracts a player's offensive rebounds. This does give an advantage to bigs. I would like it way better if instead they somehow went through the play-by-plays and subtracted FGAs that resulted in an offensive rebound instead, but that's impossible to do just from box score data. Maybe synergy does this with their PPP. I'm not sure.

this is all correct, except that i don't think PPP subtracts o-rebs from when calculating an INDIVIDUAL's PPP. it does with team offense because the thought is that if you miss 5 shots but get all those offensive rebounds and finally score on the 6th shot, you still got two points out of that one possession, so it wipes away the five misses to basically say you as a team used ONE possession there and not SIX. but on an individual level i don't think they do that because they don't know if it was THAT player's used possession (ie, miss) that he erased with an offensive board. for example, you could have a player who comes in at the end of a game, grabs a teammate's miss and stuff it, and his PPP (if we subtracted o-rebs) would be 2/0, an undefined number. so i'm relatively sure that a player's PPP is just pts/(fga+.44fta+to)... or in other words, it's TS% times two.

 

[JAZZGASM]

Hayward's Holy Grail is 3-pnt shooting consistency. If he ever finds it, then he very well could be an all-star.

This is very speculative (if I had league pass I'd go back and review), but I think the problem with Hayward's shot can be summed up thusly:

1. the purposefulness of how he sets his feet. If he gets too "tender" here, the shot is off.
2. the over-thinking that goes into the position of his elbow... instead of just trusting and pulling the damn string.

When these two things are fluid and fast, then he is absolutely solid. When the slightest hesitation creeps into either, then he can be a mess.

I think it is his balance and head position. I've watched him enough that I can tell 90% of the time if his shot is going in. He has a good stroke, but he often lifts his head and jumps to far forward or to the side.

He's actually looked a lot better over the past few games. Hopefully the coaching staff has been working with him.

 

[mct]

Thanks, nerd, for explaining team PPP. Makes sense. I wish there was a stat for pts/(possession-ending fga +.44fta + to). Field goal attempts that become an offensive rebound or get blocked out of bounds shouldn't count.

 

[mellow]

he rebounds very adequately when he isn't TOLD to release for the break. The ability is there; nobody who watches him would question that.

Well blow me up, or neg rep or whatever the kids are doing these days, because I watch him and I don't see what you are seeing. Oh, I agree the ability is there, but the heart is too often missing.

'Tis also true that the emphasis on running has the wings releasing and going, but not always and when he stays I've noticed too many instances where he stands and watches, or makes a feeble reach for the ball while the other team is jumping and grabbing for it.

He shouldn't be out rebounded by a pg or another jazz wing player playing half as many minutes, but it happens to often. I just want him to step up and be more assertive/aggressive.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Well blow me up, or neg rep or whatever the kids are doing these days, because I watch him and I don't see what you are seeing. Oh, I agree the ability is there, but the heart is too often missing.

'Tis also true that the emphasis on running has the wings releasing and going, but not always and when he stays I've noticed too many instances where he stands and watches, or makes a feeble reach for the ball while the other team is jumping and grabbing for it.

He shouldn't be out rebounded by a pg or another jazz wing player playing half as many minutes, but it happens to often. I just want him to step up and be more assertive/aggressive.

i agree 100% with this, but i also don't think this is a unique problem for hayward or even for utah. every team in the L has wings that sometimes help on the glass and sometimes forget that's part of their job. now that gordo's playing almost exclusively at SG, that also tends to keep him farther from the basket. not making excuses, i'm just saying, most teams look at wing rebounding as a bit of a bonus.

 

[Sneakers]

He's good, he's young, and the Jazz need perimeter players desperately. I think the issue is that nobody is sure trading Hayward gets you a player better than Hayward. Pretty simple.

This is easily the best post in the thread.

 

[mhindy]

Agree with Numberica. The problem is that almost every trade proposed is trying to trade big for small. Since Hayward is a small player who is at least decent with some upside, he's not going to be mentioned as much.

I certainly don't think he's untouchable or has much of a chance to be an all-star, I just don't think what we'd get back for him would really be worth it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Well blow me up, or neg rep or whatever the kids are doing these days, because I watch him and I don't see what you are seeing. Oh, I agree the ability is there, but the heart is too often missing.

'Tis also true that the emphasis on running has the wings releasing and going, but not always and when he stays I've noticed too many instances where he stands and watches, or makes a feeble reach for the ball while the other team is jumping and grabbing for it.

He shouldn't be out rebounded by a pg or another jazz wing player playing half as many minutes, but it happens to often. I just want him to step up and be more assertive/aggressive.

Agreed with Mellow. Yes, he is probably told to break, but he also has to be able to read the game and know when the team needs rebounding help. Burks, Carroll, and Marvin know when to do this, Hayward doesn't (for the most part).

 

[Revolution 9]

If someone makes us a good offer we'd all listen. I don't think he's untouchable. If he is overrated, then that is a good thing for us.
He is well talked about by other teams commentators. We might get an overpay.

 

[HeavenHarris]

If someone makes us a good offer we'd all listen. I don't think he's untouchable. If he is overrated, then that is a good thing for us.
He is well talked about by other teams commentators. We might get an overpay.

i think the point is that he is overrated here. in utah. doesnt help with trades bro.

 

[JGolds]

i am one of those brain washed jazz fans that over value him. i think the kid still has alot of untaped potential. he plays for like 23 mins a game and quitely gives you 15 points 3 rebounds 2 to 3 assits and a block and a steal. who doesnt want a player like that coming off your bench. and i had an epiphany a few days ago. look who hayward is on the floor with. watson, carroll, favors, kantor. now we all know favors and kantor can score, but they are not quite what i would call consistant yet. watson couldnt hit the ocean with a rock, carroll isnt know for his shooting. heck hayward is like the only guy that probably even shows up on the opposing teams scouting report on a regular basis.
Ithink we cant keep defending him saying "he is only a boy of 22" but he is still pretty young. and if he progesivly gets better like he has every year he will be one of those players that you need on a championship team. will he be an allstar? who knows. my personal opinion i think he will be one once or twice. however, he is a peice every team needs.

end of rant/