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Utah Jazz Season Preview

Archie Moses

Archie Moses

Well-Known Member
https://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/10/nba-season-preview-utah-jazz.php

Pretty good read here. Can't say I disagree with too much.

Last season: 53-29, they won the Northwest division and got four seed in the West. Then Mehmet Okur went down the first game of the playoffs. The Jazz still got by the Nuggets but the Lakers proved to be too much in the second round. (Which is probably exactly what happens if Okur is healthy.)

Head Coach: Jerry Sloan, who I think has been in Utah since the days of Joseph Smith, Jr.

Key Departures: Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Wes Mathews, a sense that things will be the same in Utah.

Key Additions: Al Jefferson, Raja Bell, draft pick Gordon Hayward, a sense of hope that Jefferson can make the Jazz better.

Best case scenario: Another good regular season, the team really gels in the playoffs and they make it all the way to the Western Conference finals. Then Deron Williams is so excited he announces he wants to sign an extension in Utah.

For that to happen: The second part of that is not going to happen, at least not that way. Deron Williams has not gone public the way others have this summer, but both sides can see the next contract looming as a future issue. Williams is under contract this season and next, with a player option for the third year. There are a lot of questions -- including what the new CBA looks like -- before we talk about Williams leaving Utah, but if he feels the franchise is not committed enough to winning next season could be about where he goes.

As for this season...

Al Jefferson is going to have to fit his game into the Jazz system. Which is no given. Jefferson got 56.8 percent of his shots last season getting the ball in the post, while only about one time a game did he set the pick in the high-screen. Jefferson shot pretty well when he did set those picks, but it is not something Minnesota used him to do often. Jefferson also did not get many points in transition, something Boozer did quite well.

The Jazz get a lot of shots at the rim -- they were third in the league in shot attempts at the rim per game last season at 31.3, and they shot a very good 63.5 percent on those -- but they do it more through cuts and a motion offense than traditional sets. Like a post up.

Jefferson can certainly play the Utah -- err, we mean Sloan -- way, but it could be an adjustment. We also have to see how Jefferson fits in once Okur returns. To start the season Jefferson will be more of an Okur replacement than a Boozer replacement.

That will mean more Paul Millsap, which is good for everyone. He'll need to grab more boards (a strength of Boozer) and continue to score efficiently in more minutes. This is a guy who deserved a big chance and now it is here.

It's a lot easier for Jefferson to fit in when you have Williams as your point guard. He is the perfect guard for the Jazz system -- he can drive the lane, knock down the three, has great floor vision and a nearly 3-1 assist to turnover ratio. Every team game plans to stop Williams, nobody does it. So long as the Jazz have him, they will be good (which brings us back to keeping him).

Hayward has a lot expected of him as rookie, essentially having to step in and take over the Korver designated shooter role. That's a lot to ask of a kid making a big leap in competition level. Raja Bell will bring the "threes and D" energy off the bench, but at age 34 entering his 11th season in the league you know what you are getting (and you may get a little less of it).

As always, the real X-Factor with the Jazz is Andrei Kirilenko. When he is healthy he is a game changer, a high-flying shot blocker who can drain the three. He stretches the floor, gets to the line and is generally a matchup nightmare for everyone else. But he has missed nearly a quarter of the Jazz's games the last two seasons ad played in just two playoff games last year. Without him they are much easier to match up with along the front line -- and with a big expiring contract ($17.8 million) he could be moved anyway to save money (he was almost part of the Carmelo Anthony four-team deal). Basically, the Jazz can't count on Kirilenko to be there for them all season.

More likely the Jazz will: Be a little bit worse than they were last year but basically what they have been for a long time -- good but not quite good enough. Jefferson will be close to a wash for Boozer, but Bell and Hayward will be a step back from Korver and Mathews. The Jazz will be entertaining, play pretty basketball, but not be contenders. Williams will amaze, Jefferson will be a nice fit, Kirilenko will show flashes but disappoint, Millsap will hustle, the rookies will play like rookies, Bell will be solid but not fantastic.

They will hover around the 50-win mark, maybe win in the first round (depending on matchups) then be out by the second round.

Prediction: 48-34, with a six or seven seed in the West. A tough first round matchup for someone.
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I think the Jazz are being underrated. I don't see Jefferson really as Boozer's replacement, when comparing this team to last year's. I see Millsap as Boozer's replacement and Jefferson as a new addition.

I have the Jazz at second in the west for this season.... We'll see. I see 58 wins.
 
If Jefferson gels and AK stays healthy, the Jazz are a top-4 and it's plausible they make it to the WCF. And that's assuming CJ stays the same, Hayward is nothing more than a poor-man's Korver with some ballhandling ability, and Memo doesn't contribute.
 
Last season: 53-29, they won the Northwest division and got four seed in the West.
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When are we hanging the banner? I think this is going to be one of those everlasting myths now. So, did we win the NW division by beating Denver in the playoffs or something?
 
So, for whatever reason, as long as the whole world THINKS we won the NW last year, does that mean we can storm into the Nuggets' arena, rip their banner down, and hang it up at the ESA?

And yeah, this is the same **** they say about the Jazz every year.
 
On NBA LP this year, I will be listening to hear how many times opposing game announcers refer to us as Northwest Division champions. It will happen. I guess we might as well own it.

The Utah Jazz - 2009-2010 Northwest Division champions!
 
Once again we are underrated. Not surprising. This happenes every year. If we stay healthy, we win 55 games. Chemistry will be great, no Boozer distractions, better backup pg, AK in a contract year. If we see any kind of improvement from CJ and Fes at all that will be another plus.
 
I don't know how people think we are underrated. Are team is completely different and has a lot to prove that they can play and play at an elite level together. So far, they haven't, because they haven't played. Only time will tell how well they mesh.
 
Archie Moses said:
I don't know how people think we are underrated. Are team is completely different and has a lot to prove that they can play and play at an elite level together. So far, they haven't, because they haven't played. Only time will tell how well they mesh.
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As much as I hate to say it I have to agree with this. I have really high hopes for this team and what they have the capability to do. But I think it is going to take at least the first couple months to get all the new guys on the same page and gel. If they come out strong and on the same page right of the bat I well be surprised.
 
Archie Moses said:
I don't know how people think we are underrated. Are team is completely different and has a lot to prove that they can play and play at an elite level together.
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Holy spelling nightmares, Batman! I know that a lot of people in Utah PRONOUNCE "our" like that (drives my wife crazy), but do they have to spell it like that, too??
 
Archie Moses said:
https://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/10/nba-season-preview-utah-jazz.php

Pretty good read here. Can't say I disagree with too much.
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Well, let's see, the article states Utah won the NW title last season and Sloan has been in Utah since the days of Joseph Smith Jr.
Considering that Joe Smith never set foot in the territory that later became Utah and that Denver won the division title...major FAIL.

*And to say Korver was the "designated shooter"? C'mon, he attempted 5.4 shots per game and made 1.1 three pointers. Not much to replace.

*AK as a high-flying shot blocker who can drain the three? Has this guy not watched Jazz basketball since 2004? Just over 1.0 block/per and less than 30% on his 3's.

*Now Matthews...that's about all I agree with. Raja or CJ filling taking over the starting SG spot from Wesley. May lose some there.

Who's the clown who wrote the article? He may want to spend a bit more time on research and less time trying to come up with inane jokes.
 
yeah, that was some major PR spin on korver last season. chicago is in for some serious disappointment if they are expecting the most prolific and game changing three-point shooter in the league
 
Yeah but Korver was always clutch with his three point shots. Always. I don't think that gets mentioned near enough.
 
Lance-A-Million said:
Yeah but Korver was always clutch with his three point shots. Always. I don't think that gets mentioned near enough.
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Except, of course, when the Jazz really needed his scoring down the stretch and he kept passing up looks to protect his shooting percentage. And his once automatic FT shooting went south, to the point that CJ was more reliable from the line at the end of the season. I'm very glad Korver is gone.
 
We will win more than 50 games... The prediction of 6th / 7th seed is somewhat interesting. Ok, Lakers and Spurs are favourites and Thunder are expected to grow as a group and get a top3 seed. I do not see any other team (inc. always overrated Mavs, money does not win games) that will win more games than Jazz. The difficulty of adjusting to the Jazz system might have and impact on the prediciton but Suns will also have a tough adjustment process and their not having a reliable inside scorer will always be there, Hedo will not get taller and bigger + how Cp3 and Melo led teams will contain a level of good chemistry during a 82-game period is a bigger question mark. Did you hear that KMart is angry and disappointed 'cause Denver did not offer an extension and he will not rush back from injury and gave the unwillingness of team to extend as a reason? How would that be a positive for team chemistry? Blazers are good but they will suffer from the stagnant offense and lack of intensity and production from frontcourt, for sure. We have seen it for years and Oden is not coming back anytime soon, by the way.

It's silly to predict a below 50 wins seasons for Jazz just because of the adjustment period from Booz to Big Al. You can give lots of silly reasons to downgrade the Jazz like "Kyle was the Horny of this Jazz" or "Brewer was a perfect offensive fit for Sloan and he was a great defender (not true)". IMO the two crucial things that will have a big impact on the regular season success of this roster are:
- how quick and good newcomers adjust to the system
- Fesenko's development + Memo's recovery.
 
Stickler said:
I think the Jazz are being underrated. I don't see Jefferson really as Boozer's replacement, when comparing this team to last year's. I see Millsap as Boozer's replacement and Jefferson as a new addition.

I have the Jazz at second in the west for this season.... We'll see. I see 58 wins.
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58 wins in the Western Conference? With all due respect, no way in hell. With the amount of turnover this off-season, and Okur's health as a question mark, there is zero chance we get 58 wins imo.

51-31.
 
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