Weezur
Well-Known Member
I thought this thread was about busts in this draft in general. I mis-read.
First Round Bust Predictions
- Thread starter franklin
- Start date
I thought this thread was about busts in this draft in general. I mis-read.
^And that's why I hate comparisons. The range of goodness between similar players, on paper, is rampant in the NBA. Sorry, Weez, but the comp is bad.
One question. Jeremy played inferior competition to Noel.. (I can't even believe I'm having this discussion) and what were his averages? Look at their ages. Terrible.
Like I've said, though, Noel is NOT a traditional #1 pick. Next year he's a late lottery, imo. I think he has huge bust potential.. but his upside is equally undeniable.
One question. Jeremy played inferior competition to Noel.. (I can't even believe I'm having this discussion) and what were his averages? Look at their ages. Terrible.
Like I've said, though, Noel is NOT a traditional #1 pick. Next year he's a late lottery, imo. I think he has huge bust potential.. but his upside is equally undeniable.
I don't think Noel is a bust, but he might be a defensive specialist like Dennis Rodman, with moderately better hair.
Players like Dieng and Plumlee look a bit limited to me. I'm concerned also whether Karasev will be athletic enough to play defense and succeed in general at the NBA level. If not, he has to be a designated shooter off the bench.
Players like Dieng and Plumlee look a bit limited to me. I'm concerned also whether Karasev will be athletic enough to play defense and succeed in general at the NBA level. If not, he has to be a designated shooter off the bench.
Noel will be a 6'11" 230 lb. defensive stalwart. I think his worst case is Larry Sanders. Not bad.
Thee Jazz Fan
Well-Known Member
All pg's in the first round not named CJ McCollum.
I think Burke will be fine. Not a top-8 PG, but he'll be fine. Carter-Williams could do well on an open-court, run-and-gun team.
Fixed.
Darkwing Duck
Well-Known Member
What, 2/3rds of draft picks in the first round make it to no better than a bench player, and a good chunk of them are lottery picks. So defining bust is difficult.
Is Aminu a bust since he was picked at #8 and produces what he does?
But anyway, some predictions:
One of McLemore, Porter, and Olapido will bust. One other will bust relative to his draft position (like an Aminu).
I will be surprised if Adams, Plumlee, Withey, or Olynyk make it to Jason Smith level of ability. Olynyk will if he adopts a Luis Scola, or maybe a David West kind of game and is successful at it.
Len will put up some numbers but flame out.
Is Aminu a bust since he was picked at #8 and produces what he does?
But anyway, some predictions:
One of McLemore, Porter, and Olapido will bust. One other will bust relative to his draft position (like an Aminu).
I will be surprised if Adams, Plumlee, Withey, or Olynyk make it to Jason Smith level of ability. Olynyk will if he adopts a Luis Scola, or maybe a David West kind of game and is successful at it.
Len will put up some numbers but flame out.
I like Adams a lot and think he'll come out between Andrew Bogut and Andrew Bynum. He's young, but give him 3 years and he'll be a handfull.
Zeller could bust a bit because he's not especially fast or skilled handling the ball. He looks like he needs to be set up, but maybe I'm wrong here. He'll be a good player in a limited number of situations.
I think Olynyk will be fine. He does a lot for a 7' guy. If he were 6'9" then maybe he'd have some issues, but he should be a solid player from the elbow. He'll be able to shoot jumpers from there, or get to the rim with one dribble. Plus he can pass. Worst case, he's a bigger version of Troy Murphy.
Zeller could bust a bit because he's not especially fast or skilled handling the ball. He looks like he needs to be set up, but maybe I'm wrong here. He'll be a good player in a limited number of situations.
I think Olynyk will be fine. He does a lot for a 7' guy. If he were 6'9" then maybe he'd have some issues, but he should be a solid player from the elbow. He'll be able to shoot jumpers from there, or get to the rim with one dribble. Plus he can pass. Worst case, he's a bigger version of Troy Murphy.
Darkwing Duck
Well-Known Member
Man, I'm looking at the 2006 draft, and there's definitely some comparisons to make. Let's go through the list.
Bargnani-Bust in relation to draft position.
Aldridge-Not a bust
Morrison-Complete bust
Tyrus Thomas-Bust
Shelden Williams-Complete bust
Roy-Not a bust
Foye-Close, but I'll say slight bust in relation to draft position (#7)
Gay-Not a bust
O'Bryant-Complete bust
Sene-Complete bust
Redick-Not a bust
Armstrong-Complete bust
Sefolosha-Probably not a bust considering pick #13
Brewer-Flameout after a few good years (system guy)
Simmons-Complete bust
Carney-Complete bust
Shawne Williams-Complete bust
Pecherov-Complete Bust
Douby-Complete Bust
Balkman-Bust
Rondo-Bust (just seeing if PKM is paying attention)
Marcus Williams-Bust
Boone-Complete bust
Lowry-Not a bust
Brown-Not a bust due to draft position (25)
Farmar-Not a bust due to draft position (26)
Rodriguez-Bust as an international
Only other notables are Novak, Daniel Gibson, and Millsap.
Is Len Shelden Williams?
Is McCollum Randy Foye?
Is Bennett Tyrus Thomas?
Bargnani-Bust in relation to draft position.
Aldridge-Not a bust
Morrison-Complete bust
Tyrus Thomas-Bust
Shelden Williams-Complete bust
Roy-Not a bust
Foye-Close, but I'll say slight bust in relation to draft position (#7)
Gay-Not a bust
O'Bryant-Complete bust
Sene-Complete bust
Redick-Not a bust
Armstrong-Complete bust
Sefolosha-Probably not a bust considering pick #13
Brewer-Flameout after a few good years (system guy)
Simmons-Complete bust
Carney-Complete bust
Shawne Williams-Complete bust
Pecherov-Complete Bust
Douby-Complete Bust
Balkman-Bust
Rondo-Bust (just seeing if PKM is paying attention)
Marcus Williams-Bust
Boone-Complete bust
Lowry-Not a bust
Brown-Not a bust due to draft position (25)
Farmar-Not a bust due to draft position (26)
Rodriguez-Bust as an international
Only other notables are Novak, Daniel Gibson, and Millsap.
Is Len Shelden Williams?
Is McCollum Randy Foye?
Is Bennett Tyrus Thomas?
Not booking it.
A-Train (old)
Well-Known Member
2006 draft is a good comparison and so is the 2004 draft. I will say if there a bust and compare them to players in this draft possibility.
1. Dwight Howard - Star, not a bust
2. Emeka Okafor - Decent player, bust because of how high he was drafted
3. Ben Gordon - Role player, bust because of how high he was drafted
4. Shaun Livingston - Would have been a great player if wasn't for injures, pass
5. Devin Harris - Decent player, bust because of high he was drafted
6. Josh Childress - Bench player, bust
7. Luol Deng - Star, not a bust
8. Rafael Araujo - Scrub, complete bust
9. Andre Iguodala - Star, not a bust
10. Luke Jackson - Scrub, complete bust
11. Andris Biedrins - Role player, leaning towards a bust
12. Robert Swift - Scrub, complete bust
13. Sebastian Telfair - Role player, might not be a bust because he was drafted at #13
14. Kris Humphries - Starter, not a bust
15. Al Jefferson - Star/Starter, not a bust
16. Kirk Snyder - Scrub, complete bust
17. Josh Smith - Star, not a bust
18. JR Smith - 6th man, not a bust
19. Dorell Wright - Bench player, leaning towards a bust
20. Jameer Nelson - Starter, not a bust
21. Pavel Podkozine - Scrub, complete bust
22. Victor Khryapa - Scrub, complete bust
23. Sergei Monia - Scrub, complete bust
24. Delonte West - Bench player, half and half
25. Tony Allen - Starter, not a bust
26. Kevin Martin - 6th man, not a bust
27. Sasha Vujacic - Scrub, complete bust
28. Beno Udrih - Role player, not a bust
29. Minnesota forfeits pick
30. David Harrison - Scrub, complete bust
This draft is very comparable, because as you get lower in the draft the talent is just as good or even better than at the top. Some of the players can be compared to prospects this year as well.
Is Nerlens Noel a Dwight Howard or a Emeka Okafor?
Is Ben McLemore a Ben Gordon?
Is Michael Carter-Williams a Shaun Livingston?
Is C.J. McCollum a Devin Harris or a JR Smith?
Is Otto Porter a Luol Deng?
Is Alex Len a Rafael Araujo or a Al Jefferson?
Is Victor Oladipo a Tony Allen or Andre Iguodala?
Is Reggie Bullock a Tony Allen with a jumpshot?
Is Trey Burke a Jameer Nelson?
Is Cody Zeller a Kris Humphries?
The list could go on, but these could be some realistic comparisons for these guys and the 2004 draft mixed with the 2006 draft could be very similar to this upcoming draft.
1. Dwight Howard - Star, not a bust
2. Emeka Okafor - Decent player, bust because of how high he was drafted
3. Ben Gordon - Role player, bust because of how high he was drafted
4. Shaun Livingston - Would have been a great player if wasn't for injures, pass
5. Devin Harris - Decent player, bust because of high he was drafted
6. Josh Childress - Bench player, bust
7. Luol Deng - Star, not a bust
8. Rafael Araujo - Scrub, complete bust
9. Andre Iguodala - Star, not a bust
10. Luke Jackson - Scrub, complete bust
11. Andris Biedrins - Role player, leaning towards a bust
12. Robert Swift - Scrub, complete bust
13. Sebastian Telfair - Role player, might not be a bust because he was drafted at #13
14. Kris Humphries - Starter, not a bust
15. Al Jefferson - Star/Starter, not a bust
16. Kirk Snyder - Scrub, complete bust
17. Josh Smith - Star, not a bust
18. JR Smith - 6th man, not a bust
19. Dorell Wright - Bench player, leaning towards a bust
20. Jameer Nelson - Starter, not a bust
21. Pavel Podkozine - Scrub, complete bust
22. Victor Khryapa - Scrub, complete bust
23. Sergei Monia - Scrub, complete bust
24. Delonte West - Bench player, half and half
25. Tony Allen - Starter, not a bust
26. Kevin Martin - 6th man, not a bust
27. Sasha Vujacic - Scrub, complete bust
28. Beno Udrih - Role player, not a bust
29. Minnesota forfeits pick
30. David Harrison - Scrub, complete bust
This draft is very comparable, because as you get lower in the draft the talent is just as good or even better than at the top. Some of the players can be compared to prospects this year as well.
Is Nerlens Noel a Dwight Howard or a Emeka Okafor?
Is Ben McLemore a Ben Gordon?
Is Michael Carter-Williams a Shaun Livingston?
Is C.J. McCollum a Devin Harris or a JR Smith?
Is Otto Porter a Luol Deng?
Is Alex Len a Rafael Araujo or a Al Jefferson?
Is Victor Oladipo a Tony Allen or Andre Iguodala?
Is Reggie Bullock a Tony Allen with a jumpshot?
Is Trey Burke a Jameer Nelson?
Is Cody Zeller a Kris Humphries?
The list could go on, but these could be some realistic comparisons for these guys and the 2004 draft mixed with the 2006 draft could be very similar to this upcoming draft.