Don’t know if you are aware of this site with college advanced +/- season statistics since 2009-10: https://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2013/nba-stats/ncaa-advanced-statistical-plus-minus-released/
As with other +/- stats, it’s dependent on the particular formula the statistician chooses to use, as well as how the player fits into the team's concept; and it should never be taken to be the end-all-be-all stat. But like good +/- stats (as opposed to raw, especially single-game usages), it attempts to value a player’s rate of offensive, defensive, and total contributions to his team compared to an those of average player--after taking teammates/opponents into account, and over a long-term sample size.
I just discovered this site and thought I’d highlight what I found interesting about this year’s possible draft picks. Check it out yourselves because it has worthwhile visualizations that I cannot reproduce here.
Generally, after playing around a bit with previous year’s data, these are the simple rules of thumb I’m following:
a) any number -- offensive or defensive -- close to average (0) gives a red flag. Most successful NBA players showed decently above average numbers both offensively and defensively.
b) I like to see improvement from year to year, where the data is available.
c) generally smalls show better offensively, and bigs defensively
Numbers for draftables (Total, offense, defense):
Trey Burke 11.6, 9.1, 2.5 (very high total, great offense; defense slightly worrisome, but better than I expected; good improvement from freshman)
CJ McCollum 9.9, 6.1, 3.7 (good numbers overall; big improvement from sophomore to junior year; defense somewhat inconsistent from year to year and generally on the low side)
Pierre Jackson 9.0, 7.8, 1.2 (not bad; but defense a clear issue; fair yearly improvement)
Shane Larkin 8.9, 5.4, 3.5 (much better than I expected; defense surprisingly OK; very good improvement from year one to two)
Erick Green 8.7, 9.2, -0.5 (very good offense, terrible defense; strongly regressed on defense over years)
Michael Carter-Williams 8.6, 3.4, 5.2 (great defense for PG, rivaled only by Marcus Smart; can low offense number work for PG?)
Nate Wolters 8.4, 8.2, 0.3 (very good offense; terrible defense; good yearly improvement)
Peyton Siva 7.7, 3.3, 4.4 (moderate yearly improvement; quality defense)
Myck Kabongo 6.6, 3.7, 2.9 (may have chance as showed good improvement from freshman)
Ray McCallum 6.0, 5.6, 0.4 (bad defense; offense OK)
Lorenzo Brown 5.9, 3.4, 2.5 (not much to see here)
BJ Young 5.1, 5.3, -0.2 (terrible, terrible defense; moderate improvement since last year)
Isaiah Canaan 4.9, 5.3, -0.4 (inconsistent from year to year; not terribly impressive; awful defense)
Phil Pressey 4.9, 2.7, 2.2 (regressed last year; nothing impressive)
Victor Oladipo 13.0 6.8, 6.3 (second highest total in database behind Anthony Davis; great balance, great improvement esp. sophomore to junior year)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 9.8, 5.6, 4.2 (well balanced; very good [Klay-Thompson like] jump from freshman to sophomore)
Ben McLemore 7.9, 5.4, 2.5 (not bad, some other freshmen in this range have done well)
Jamaal Franklin 7.5, 3.1, 4.1 (almost exactly what I would have expected; decent yearly improvement; a bit, but not terribly, far behind Kawhi’s numbers)
Allen Crabbe 6.1, 4.2, 1.9 (nothing impressive; slow yearly improvement)
Tim Hardaway, Jr. 5.6, 3.8, 1.9 (pretty low numbers across the board; only modest yearly improvement)
Tony Snell 4.7, 3.5, -1.3 (Meh)
Archie Goodwin 2.7, 1.5, 1.3 (very risky, even for freshman)
Otto Porter, 11.0, 5.8, 5.2 (very good balance between offense and defense; good improvement from a very good freshman year)
Reggie Bullock 7.9, 6.0, 1.9 (decent overall; surprisingly ineffective defense; fair yearly improvement)
Deshaun Thomas 7.3, 6.1, 1.2 (no surprises here; little yearly improvement; may hang on in NBA with offense)
Solomon Hill 6.5, 4.2, 2.3 (slow, steady improvement)
James Ennis 5.1, 3.4, 1.7 (regressed strongly last year on defense)
CJ Leslie 3.4, 1.9, 1.4 (not impressive; regressed from previous year)
Shabazz Muhammad 3.0, 3.8, -0.8 (these numbers scare me for a freshman; I’d want to see capacity for year-to-year improvement before drafting; terrible defense, offense nothing to write home about)
Cody Zeller 11.4, 7.7, 3.7 (very high for sophomore; improved slightly from freshman, though regressed a bit defensively; has always been higher than his brother)
Kelly Olynyk 11.3, 8.6, 2.7 (great offense; can he play defense?; earlier years’ scores unavailable)
Arsalan Kazemi 10.7, 3.9, 6.7 (steady yearly improvement; I want him, despite limitations)
Mike Muscala 10.0, 6.0, 4.0 (better balance than I expected; strong yearly improvement)
Eric Murphy 9.4, 6.1, 3.3 (better than I expected; good improvement over final year)
Mason Plumlee 8.8, 5.1, 3.8 (decent numbers, though perhaps a bit low for age; steady, if not rapid improvement through years; always better than brother)
Anthony Bennett 7.6, 4.7, 2.9 (decent for freshman who has room for improvement)
Andre Roberson 8.1, 1.4, 6.7 (basically the same player as when freshman; great defense for size; no offense)
with defensive focus)
Trevor Mbakwe 6.9, 3.3, 3.7 (not much yearly improvement; energy guy)
Brandon Davies 6.8, 4.0, 2.8 (steady, if not rapid yearly improvement)
Jackie Carmichael 6.1, 3.2, 3.0 (not great; but good balance and steady yearly improvement)
Grant Jerrett 5.5, 2.2, 3.3 (not bad for 2nd-rounder freshman)
Tony Mitchell 1.4, -0.5, 1.9 (regressed as sophomore; good but not great as freshman; I wouldn’t touch him)
Nerlens Noel 11.2, 2.7, 8.6 (defense is best in database, offense is slightly worrisome for a #1 pick but probably OK since he was a freshman)
Jeff Withey 10.2, 3.9, 6.2 (impressive numbers; not much improvement junior to senior)
Gorgui Dieng 10.1, 3.6, 6.5 (very similar to Withey; strong improvement from sophomore offensively, though still on low side there)
Steven Adams 8.8, 3.1, 5.7 (fairly impressive for freshman; can he develop offense?)
Colton Iverson 7.3, 5.3, 2.0 (not much defense; huge offense improvement since Minnesota)
Dewayne Dedmon 6.3, 0.1, 6.2 (all defense, no offense)
Alex Len 6.2, 3.3, 3.0 (quite low overall for a high pick; but good balance and year 1 to year 2 improvement)
For comparison:
Favors 7.4, 3.3, 4.1
Hayward 7.5, 3.7, 3.8
Burks 6.8, 6.9, -0.1 (with modest improvement to sophomore)
Jeremy Evans 6.3, 3.7, 2.5
Kahwi Leonard 8.4, 3.7, 4.7 (with strong improvement to sophomore)
Paul George 4.9, 2.2, 2.8
Chandler Parsons 6.1, 3.6, 2.5
Jimmer Freddette 10.8, 9.8, 1.0
Damian Lillard 8.7, 8.9, -0.2 (good, steady, yearly improvement)
Klay Thompson 8.7, 5.5, 3.2 (big jump to sophomore)
Kemba Walker 11.7, 8.5, 3.2 (with huge last-year jump)
Brandon Knight 5.0, 4.4, 0.6
Harrison Barnes 5.7, 3.5, 2.1 (sophomore and freshman almost identical)
As with other +/- stats, it’s dependent on the particular formula the statistician chooses to use, as well as how the player fits into the team's concept; and it should never be taken to be the end-all-be-all stat. But like good +/- stats (as opposed to raw, especially single-game usages), it attempts to value a player’s rate of offensive, defensive, and total contributions to his team compared to an those of average player--after taking teammates/opponents into account, and over a long-term sample size.
I just discovered this site and thought I’d highlight what I found interesting about this year’s possible draft picks. Check it out yourselves because it has worthwhile visualizations that I cannot reproduce here.
Generally, after playing around a bit with previous year’s data, these are the simple rules of thumb I’m following:
a) any number -- offensive or defensive -- close to average (0) gives a red flag. Most successful NBA players showed decently above average numbers both offensively and defensively.
b) I like to see improvement from year to year, where the data is available.
c) generally smalls show better offensively, and bigs defensively
Numbers for draftables (Total, offense, defense):
Trey Burke 11.6, 9.1, 2.5 (very high total, great offense; defense slightly worrisome, but better than I expected; good improvement from freshman)
CJ McCollum 9.9, 6.1, 3.7 (good numbers overall; big improvement from sophomore to junior year; defense somewhat inconsistent from year to year and generally on the low side)
Pierre Jackson 9.0, 7.8, 1.2 (not bad; but defense a clear issue; fair yearly improvement)
Shane Larkin 8.9, 5.4, 3.5 (much better than I expected; defense surprisingly OK; very good improvement from year one to two)
Erick Green 8.7, 9.2, -0.5 (very good offense, terrible defense; strongly regressed on defense over years)
Michael Carter-Williams 8.6, 3.4, 5.2 (great defense for PG, rivaled only by Marcus Smart; can low offense number work for PG?)
Nate Wolters 8.4, 8.2, 0.3 (very good offense; terrible defense; good yearly improvement)
Peyton Siva 7.7, 3.3, 4.4 (moderate yearly improvement; quality defense)
Myck Kabongo 6.6, 3.7, 2.9 (may have chance as showed good improvement from freshman)
Ray McCallum 6.0, 5.6, 0.4 (bad defense; offense OK)
Lorenzo Brown 5.9, 3.4, 2.5 (not much to see here)
BJ Young 5.1, 5.3, -0.2 (terrible, terrible defense; moderate improvement since last year)
Isaiah Canaan 4.9, 5.3, -0.4 (inconsistent from year to year; not terribly impressive; awful defense)
Phil Pressey 4.9, 2.7, 2.2 (regressed last year; nothing impressive)
Victor Oladipo 13.0 6.8, 6.3 (second highest total in database behind Anthony Davis; great balance, great improvement esp. sophomore to junior year)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 9.8, 5.6, 4.2 (well balanced; very good [Klay-Thompson like] jump from freshman to sophomore)
Ben McLemore 7.9, 5.4, 2.5 (not bad, some other freshmen in this range have done well)
Jamaal Franklin 7.5, 3.1, 4.1 (almost exactly what I would have expected; decent yearly improvement; a bit, but not terribly, far behind Kawhi’s numbers)
Allen Crabbe 6.1, 4.2, 1.9 (nothing impressive; slow yearly improvement)
Tim Hardaway, Jr. 5.6, 3.8, 1.9 (pretty low numbers across the board; only modest yearly improvement)
Tony Snell 4.7, 3.5, -1.3 (Meh)
Archie Goodwin 2.7, 1.5, 1.3 (very risky, even for freshman)
Otto Porter, 11.0, 5.8, 5.2 (very good balance between offense and defense; good improvement from a very good freshman year)
Reggie Bullock 7.9, 6.0, 1.9 (decent overall; surprisingly ineffective defense; fair yearly improvement)
Deshaun Thomas 7.3, 6.1, 1.2 (no surprises here; little yearly improvement; may hang on in NBA with offense)
Solomon Hill 6.5, 4.2, 2.3 (slow, steady improvement)
James Ennis 5.1, 3.4, 1.7 (regressed strongly last year on defense)
CJ Leslie 3.4, 1.9, 1.4 (not impressive; regressed from previous year)
Shabazz Muhammad 3.0, 3.8, -0.8 (these numbers scare me for a freshman; I’d want to see capacity for year-to-year improvement before drafting; terrible defense, offense nothing to write home about)
Cody Zeller 11.4, 7.7, 3.7 (very high for sophomore; improved slightly from freshman, though regressed a bit defensively; has always been higher than his brother)
Kelly Olynyk 11.3, 8.6, 2.7 (great offense; can he play defense?; earlier years’ scores unavailable)
Arsalan Kazemi 10.7, 3.9, 6.7 (steady yearly improvement; I want him, despite limitations)
Mike Muscala 10.0, 6.0, 4.0 (better balance than I expected; strong yearly improvement)
Eric Murphy 9.4, 6.1, 3.3 (better than I expected; good improvement over final year)
Mason Plumlee 8.8, 5.1, 3.8 (decent numbers, though perhaps a bit low for age; steady, if not rapid improvement through years; always better than brother)
Anthony Bennett 7.6, 4.7, 2.9 (decent for freshman who has room for improvement)
Andre Roberson 8.1, 1.4, 6.7 (basically the same player as when freshman; great defense for size; no offense)
with defensive focus)
Trevor Mbakwe 6.9, 3.3, 3.7 (not much yearly improvement; energy guy)
Brandon Davies 6.8, 4.0, 2.8 (steady, if not rapid yearly improvement)
Jackie Carmichael 6.1, 3.2, 3.0 (not great; but good balance and steady yearly improvement)
Grant Jerrett 5.5, 2.2, 3.3 (not bad for 2nd-rounder freshman)
Tony Mitchell 1.4, -0.5, 1.9 (regressed as sophomore; good but not great as freshman; I wouldn’t touch him)
Nerlens Noel 11.2, 2.7, 8.6 (defense is best in database, offense is slightly worrisome for a #1 pick but probably OK since he was a freshman)
Jeff Withey 10.2, 3.9, 6.2 (impressive numbers; not much improvement junior to senior)
Gorgui Dieng 10.1, 3.6, 6.5 (very similar to Withey; strong improvement from sophomore offensively, though still on low side there)
Steven Adams 8.8, 3.1, 5.7 (fairly impressive for freshman; can he develop offense?)
Colton Iverson 7.3, 5.3, 2.0 (not much defense; huge offense improvement since Minnesota)
Dewayne Dedmon 6.3, 0.1, 6.2 (all defense, no offense)
Alex Len 6.2, 3.3, 3.0 (quite low overall for a high pick; but good balance and year 1 to year 2 improvement)
For comparison:
Favors 7.4, 3.3, 4.1
Hayward 7.5, 3.7, 3.8
Burks 6.8, 6.9, -0.1 (with modest improvement to sophomore)
Jeremy Evans 6.3, 3.7, 2.5
Kahwi Leonard 8.4, 3.7, 4.7 (with strong improvement to sophomore)
Paul George 4.9, 2.2, 2.8
Chandler Parsons 6.1, 3.6, 2.5
Jimmer Freddette 10.8, 9.8, 1.0
Damian Lillard 8.7, 8.9, -0.2 (good, steady, yearly improvement)
Klay Thompson 8.7, 5.5, 3.2 (big jump to sophomore)
Kemba Walker 11.7, 8.5, 3.2 (with huge last-year jump)
Brandon Knight 5.0, 4.4, 0.6
Harrison Barnes 5.7, 3.5, 2.1 (sophomore and freshman almost identical)
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