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A (weakish) Case for Why Marvin Could Have a Big Year in 13-14?

Sexual Favors

Sexual Favors

Well-Known Member
I've been really bored waiting for training camp to start, so I've been perusing Basketball-Reference, and ESPN's game logs, and here is something I've noticed:

Marvin didn't get a lot of touches last year, like at all. He averaged 6.4 shot attempts a night. When he did shoot 12 attempts a night, the results were always great:

First game:
10/31 vs Dallas w113-94
He shot 7-13 .538%, 2-3 from 3 PT (.667%), 1 TO, Scoring 21 PTS.

He didn't shoot 11 or more shots until
11/23 vs SAC W104-102:
He shot 6-12 .500%, 1-5 from 3 PT (20 %), 7-7 FT, 0 TO, Scoring 20 PTS.

Then another month passes.
12/22 vs MIAMI L89-105
He shot 7-12 .583%, 2-5 from 3 (40%), 1 TO, scoring 16 PTS.

Then it's February:
2/2 VS Por L99-105
He shot 7-13 .538%, 1-3 from 3 (.333%), 0 TO, Scoring 15 PTS.

Then there is a sample of about 5 games where he shot between 9-11 times, scoring 13-15 (mostly 14) on those nights.
https://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2797/marvin-williams

Furthermore, the only year that Marvin averaged more than 11 shot attempts was '07/'08, and he shot .462% that year, while scoring 14.8 PTS (1.2 TO per game).
https://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2797/marvin-williams

Historically, 12 attempts a night has transformed Marvin from the Wet-Bandit goof, into the player he was drafted to be.


Years past, he has played with ball hogs like Josh Smith, Big Al, Randy Foye, Mo Williams. Every team has ball hogs, and it shouldn't be an excuse for him disappearing offensively. Do you think he will demand more touches this year with our young roster? Could he be 6th man material (considering recent reports that Rush won't be ready at start of season, but Marvin might be)?

Will a healthy Marvin on a young Jazz team be all he needs to be what he can? He is 27, which isn't too old, but his progression will almost be maxed out. It is now or never mode for him to be consistent.

Side note:

Nobody would tolerate (self included) Marvin playing the 34 minutes it took him to take those 12 shots, but if he could get into his groove in a 6th or 7th man role, it could be nice to see. I am excited to see what happens with the bench this year. A lot of people keep casting them as *** hats, but I don't think that's necessarily true:

Gobert (The Stifle-Tower aka "I only have to jump 3 inches to dunk!!!)
Marvin (could be his year)
Evans (Human-Pogo stick looked great in SL. Huge question mark here.)
Rush (Was looking great before his injury. 3 & D!)
Lucas (nope, not his year)
Clark (could be a diamond in the rough. 3 & D!)
Beidrins (hell no)
Jefferson (hell no).


*Maybe this last part ^ should have been a separate post.
 
Nice read. Also he will be in his contract year that may also have a positive influence on his game. But i would rather see last years passive, "dont give me the ball!" Marvin.
 
Sirkickyass said:
I think the shots performance analysis is probably reverse causal. I.e. he got more shots because he was playing well rather than he plays better when he gets more shots.

Sent from my HTC One using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...


Completely correct. It reminds me of how people use per36 minute ratings to show that Millsap doesn't lose consistency over the course of the season-- instead of just his stats per actual playing time. Players lose playing time, and touches because the their playing time, or touches can be allocated more correctly
 
I don't get why Marvin can't slash better than he does. It would carve out more of a niche here if he could do more than spot up with some drive threat.

Core4 is right about him not being used correctly, but I don't see how to do that with this squad. I like him as a role player though, and think this board was way too hard on him last season. Shooting better from outside would open up his driving game a ton and make a well rounded player with his great defending.
 
franklin said:
I don't get why Marvin can't slash better than he does. It would carve out more of a niche here if he could do more than spot up with some drive threat.

Core4 is right about him not being used correctly, but I don't see how to do that with this squad. I like him as a role player though, and think this board was way too hard on him last season. Shooting better from outside would open up his driving game a ton and make a well rounded player with his great defending.
Click to expand...



I think playing on a team with lower expectations could do lots for the progression of his game. He seems to have the perfect profile for a stretch-4, and as you said he has the athleticism and finishing to seemingly make up a good cutter.




I think this years offense will have to rely more on versatility than reliability. Instead of trying to free up the low block for one of the best scoring big men in the league, our scoring will predicate mostly off of the break, quick offense, and UNEXPECTED offense. In this sense, I think Marv could see a boost in production




Marv will be an interesting side story in an already exciting season. Curious to see how he's used-- I'm betting that it won't be the exact same
 
Disagree. I hate to bring in another worn out AK comparison but Marvin plays that role with a worse outside shot, less length, lower finishing ability, and nowhere near AK's excellent court vision.


The NBA is a game where excellent iso players excel, and coaches concentrate on these advantages. Marvin doesn't bring enough in one or two areas to feature him more prominently. I'd love to think that team ball and old fashioned offense can still win but this hasn't been the case for over 20 years. Every team runs the same offensive sets as the other 29. The difference is as S&M proved: you know what they're going to do and you still can't stop it.

Marvin is role but shows flashes that make you scratch your head.
 
Sirkickyass said:
I think the shots performance analysis is probably reverse causal. I.e. he got more shots because he was playing well rather than he plays better when he gets more shots.
Click to expand...

correlation.png


Sent from my HTC One using JazzFanz mobile app
Click to expand...

Hey, I just got an HTC One myself! Sweet phone.
 
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franklin said:
Disagree. I hate to bring in another worn out AK comparison but Marvin plays that role with a worse outside shot, less length, lower finishing ability, and nowhere near AK's excellent court vision.


The NBA is a game where excellent iso players excel, and coaches concentrate on these advantages. Marvin doesn't bring enough in one or two areas to feature him more prominently. I'd love to think that team ball and old fashioned offense can still win but this hasn't been the case for over 20 years. Every team runs the same offensive sets as the other 29. The difference is as S&M proved: you know what they're going to do and you still can't stop it.

Marvin is role but shows flashes that make you scratch your head.
Click to expand...

Great points. I agree.
 
Dalamon and frank both with great posts with lots of wonderful analysis...... and in the end the conclusion seems to be

He might could be pretty good in the right situation but probably won't not be, maybe
 
It's refreshing to read some analysis and some stats about actual basketball. Thanks for this thread guys.

I was pretty excited about the marv last year. I forgot about him after November started. I think he could be a valuable vet guy to take away minutes from guys who the fans think are good. I.e. if burks continues to not develop, play marv and Hayward big minutes this year, and then when we draft Jabari, play marv as his backup and stretch four. If burks is good, then we just let marv play his crappy quiet guy role once more, and sign someone else in the offseason next year.
 
b_line said:
It's refreshing to read some analysis and some stats about actual basketball. Thanks for this thread guys.

I was pretty excited about the marv last year. I forgot about him after November started. I think he could be a valuable vet guy to take away minutes from guys who the fans think are good. I.e. if burks continues to not develop, play marv and Hayward big minutes this year, and then when we draft Jabari, play marv as his backup and stretch four. IF BURKS IS GOOD, then we just let marv play his crappy quiet guy role once more, and sign someone else in the offseason next year.
Click to expand...

pssshhh come on man
 
Sirkickyass said:
I think the shots performance analysis is probably reverse causal. I.e. he got more shots because he was playing well rather than he plays better when he gets more shots.
Click to expand...

I think you're first point is correct in the statement "he got more shots because he was playing (better) rather than he play(ed) better when he gets more shots," but take issue with the "when," since it implies my argument stated that 12 shots guaranteed him success, which was not my argument. My post was a historical reference showing his success with 12 shot attempts, that's all. But if we take the "rather" out of your statement, I think the data supports both points:
1.He got more shots because he played better.
2. He played better when he got more shots.

I think they inform each other, not cancel each other out.

For instance, basketball is a game of possessions, and there is only so much shooting to be had by each team. If there are players on a team who aren't keen on passing to you, because they'd rather shoot themselves, or the coach told them to pass to someone else, how good you are doesn't really matter. Another factor to consider is how one's confidence is constructed. For most people, it is built via history, by past opportunities to manifest ones' abilities, they are more likely to believe in them, and thus act on them in the future. It's the old adage "practice makes perfect," but if there are elements (players/coaches/possessions), preventing one from getting that practice, one wouldn't be confident to shoot more, thus one's teammates could sense a lack of confidence and not pass to them. It's a catch-22.

At any rate, here is some more data that could be bent to support either/ both claims:

Al Jefferson averaged 15.8 shot attempts last season, scoring 17.8 PTS . These were his attempt numbers/production in the games where Marvin shot the ball 12 times:

10/31 vs Dallas
Jefferson went 4-11 Scoring 12 PTS

11/23 vs SAC
Jefferson shot 8-14 Scoring 19 PTS

12/22 vs MIA
Jefferson shot 2-8 scoring 6 PTS

2/2 vs POR
Jefferson shot 6-13 scoring 12 PTS

In the games where Marvin shot the ball 12 times, Al didn't shoot his season average of 15.8 attempts. Al only scored his season average in one game where Marvin shot 12 times (vs SAC Al had 19).


Mo Williams averaged 11.6 attempts, scoring 12. 9 PPG. Here's how he fared in those same games:

10/31 vs Dallas
Mo shot 7-16 for 21 PTS (good job Trey! I mean Mo!).

11/23 vs SAC
Mo shot 0-1, scoring 0 PTS.

12/22 vs MIA
Mo shot 2-3, scoring 5 PTS (only played 16 minutes, and got injured).

2/2 vs POR
Mo shot 0-0, scoring 0 PTS (injured)

The data shows us that Al took less shots in all 4 games, and only met/excelled his season average in one of those games. Mo shot less than his season average in 3 of those 4 games (by a lot less in 3 of them), and only met/excelled his season average in one game. With the data, I assume that with Mo and Al shooting less, there were more shots for Marv (so it was an issue of posessions), and when he's taken more shots, he's capitalized on those opportunities.


*all data taken from ESPN Game Logs.
 
Marvin is not going to change into a good player. Stop waiting. It's like those people that foolishly bought Iraq dinars,
and think that someday they are going to become millionaires. It's never going to happen.

Marvin is just not very good. He disappears on the court for long stretches. His jumper is not consistent.
His defense is overrated. It's time to let it go.

"Best case scenario" is Marvin has a slightly better year, hurts our lottery position, and then just moves on.
Does that sound like something you want?
 
Revolution 9 said:
Marvin is not going to change into a good player. Stop waiting. It's like those people that foolishly bought Iraq dinars,
and think that someday they are going to become millionaires. It's never going to happen.

Marvin is just not very good. He disappears on the court for long stretches. His jumper is not consistent.
His defense is overrated. It's time to let it go.

"Best case scenario" is Marvin has a slightly better year, hurts our lottery position, and then just moves on.
Does that sound like something you want?
Click to expand...

Yeah, your post makes a lot of sense. I mean, of course I was saying Marvin was going to become an all star next season.


Honestly, do you read?


We need bench players. Marvin has great length, good athleticism, really good defense (not underrated, he's just not a gambler with a lot of flash), and possesses a decent understanding for the game. He lacks confidence, is getting older, and steps on the line when he shoots threes. He's not going to be great, but he could be a decent piece off the bench if he finds his place here. He'll never make 8 mill a year, or even close, again in his career. I'm just saying we may see something more in him this year than we did last year.

Per your worry, I honestly feel like our lottery position will be fine: we've got Ty at the helm, three undersized shoot-first PG's with little to no starting experience in the NBA, three players coming off of injuries (Kanter is 100% healed, so I really shouldn't be counting him), two non-impacting players in RJ and Andris, a stacked conference to compete in, a new offensive scheme to learn, Sidney Lowe, no Hornacek on the bench, a starting lineup of college aged kids (who I think will be fine, but will make some mistakes), a league of referees who won't be bestowing any beneficial treatment on our roster, an incredibly hard schedule, etc.

Anyways, I am confused. Is me thinking positively about a player who was misused by a bad coach really going to alter our lottery situation? I didn't know I was so powerful. Thou shalt rep me.
 
Last edited:
Sexual Favors said:
Yeah, your post makes a lot of sense. I mean, of course I was saying Marvin was going to become an all star next season.


Honestly, do you read?


Anyways, I am confused. Is me thinking positively about a player who was misused by a bad coach really going to alter our lottery situation? I didn't know I was so powerful. Thou shalt rep me.
Click to expand...

I just wanted to vent. I have a problem, and it's unadulterated hatred of this man. I said I was going to give him a another chance this year, and I will.

You aren't confused you are just believing in something happening that probably never will. How many years will it take to make you or any of us realize.
He just isn't consistent enough to be a good starter in this league or play a big role on any good team. I completely agree with you he could be an asset off the bench. That was my problem
last year is it took Corbin almost the whole season to realize that. He's not a starter, we don't want to see him there, and he should earn his minutes.
He does have good games, but he never brings it everytime. When he was starting he was always getting his minutes, and we had to watch so much bad play. He should always come off the bench.
If he is playing well he gets more time THAT game.
 
In defense of SF's argument

Revolution 9 said:
Marvin is not going to change into a good player. Stop waiting. It's like those people that foolishly bought Iraq dinars,
and think that someday they are going to become millionaires. It's never going to happen.

Marvin is just not very good. He disappears on the court for long stretches. His jumper is not consistent.
His defense is overrated. It's time to let it go.

"Best case scenario" is Marvin has a slightly better year, hurts our lottery position, and then just moves on.
Does that sound like something you want?
Click to expand...

Seems like you are exaggerating SF's position, which seems to be moderate and reasonable. Your position seems much more absolute and extreme, that Marvin will never be a good player and that if Marvin is slightly better it will hurt our lottery chances. I doubt that Marvin's performance effects us by more than 1 win either way.
 
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