A (weakish) Case for Why Marvin Could Have a Big Year in 13-14?

[Sexual Favors]

I've been really bored waiting for training camp to start, so I've been perusing Basketball-Reference, and ESPN's game logs, and here is something I've noticed:

Marvin didn't get a lot of touches last year, like at all. He averaged 6.4 shot attempts a night. When he did shoot 12 attempts a night, the results were always great:

First game:
10/31 vs Dallas w113-94
He shot 7-13 .538%, 2-3 from 3 PT (.667%), 1 TO, Scoring 21 PTS.

He didn't shoot 11 or more shots until
11/23 vs SAC W104-102:
He shot 6-12 .500%, 1-5 from 3 PT (20 %), 7-7 FT, 0 TO, Scoring 20 PTS.

Then another month passes.
12/22 vs MIAMI L89-105
He shot 7-12 .583%, 2-5 from 3 (40%), 1 TO, scoring 16 PTS.

Then it's February:
2/2 VS Por L99-105
He shot 7-13 .538%, 1-3 from 3 (.333%), 0 TO, Scoring 15 PTS.

Then there is a sample of about 5 games where he shot between 9-11 times, scoring 13-15 (mostly 14) on those nights.
https://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2797/marvin-williams

Furthermore, the only year that Marvin averaged more than 11 shot attempts was '07/'08, and he shot .462% that year, while scoring 14.8 PTS (1.2 TO per game).
https://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2797/marvin-williams

Historically, 12 attempts a night has transformed Marvin from the Wet-Bandit goof, into the player he was drafted to be.


Years past, he has played with ball hogs like Josh Smith, Big Al, Randy Foye, Mo Williams. Every team has ball hogs, and it shouldn't be an excuse for him disappearing offensively. Do you think he will demand more touches this year with our young roster? Could he be 6th man material (considering recent reports that Rush won't be ready at start of season, but Marvin might be)?

Will a healthy Marvin on a young Jazz team be all he needs to be what he can? He is 27, which isn't too old, but his progression will almost be maxed out. It is now or never mode for him to be consistent.

Side note:

Nobody would tolerate (self included) Marvin playing the 34 minutes it took him to take those 12 shots, but if he could get into his groove in a 6th or 7th man role, it could be nice to see. I am excited to see what happens with the bench this year. A lot of people keep casting them as *** hats, but I don't think that's necessarily true:

Gobert (The Stifle-Tower aka "I only have to jump 3 inches to dunk!!!)
Marvin (could be his year)
Evans (Human-Pogo stick looked great in SL. Huge question mark here.)
Rush (Was looking great before his injury. 3 & D!)
Lucas (nope, not his year)
Clark (could be a diamond in the rough. 3 & D!)
Beidrins (hell no)
Jefferson (hell no).


*Maybe this last part ^ should have been a separate post.

 

[CitizenofCapua]

Nice read. Also he will be in his contract year that may also have a positive influence on his game. But i would rather see last years passive, "dont give me the ball!" Marvin.

 

[sirkickyass]

I think the shots performance analysis is probably reverse causal. I.e. he got more shots because he was playing well rather than he plays better when he gets more shots.

Sent from my HTC One using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Deleted member 848]

I think the shots performance analysis is probably reverse causal. I.e. he got more shots because he was playing well rather than he plays better when he gets more shots.

Sent from my HTC One using JazzFanz mobile app

Completely correct. It reminds me of how people use per36 minute ratings to show that Millsap doesn't lose consistency over the course of the season-- instead of just his stats per actual playing time. Players lose playing time, and touches because the their playing time, or touches can be allocated more correctly

 

[franklin]

I don't get why Marvin can't slash better than he does. It would carve out more of a niche here if he could do more than spot up with some drive threat.

Core4 is right about him not being used correctly, but I don't see how to do that with this squad. I like him as a role player though, and think this board was way too hard on him last season. Shooting better from outside would open up his driving game a ton and make a well rounded player with his great defending.

 

[Deleted member 848]

I don't get why Marvin can't slash better than he does. It would carve out more of a niche here if he could do more than spot up with some drive threat.

Core4 is right about him not being used correctly, but I don't see how to do that with this squad. I like him as a role player though, and think this board was way too hard on him last season. Shooting better from outside would open up his driving game a ton and make a well rounded player with his great defending.

I think playing on a team with lower expectations could do lots for the progression of his game. He seems to have the perfect profile for a stretch-4, and as you said he has the athleticism and finishing to seemingly make up a good cutter.




I think this years offense will have to rely more on versatility than reliability. Instead of trying to free up the low block for one of the best scoring big men in the league, our scoring will predicate mostly off of the break, quick offense, and UNEXPECTED offense. In this sense, I think Marv could see a boost in production




Marv will be an interesting side story in an already exciting season. Curious to see how he's used-- I'm betting that it won't be the exact same

 

[franklin]

Disagree. I hate to bring in another worn out AK comparison but Marvin plays that role with a worse outside shot, less length, lower finishing ability, and nowhere near AK's excellent court vision.


The NBA is a game where excellent iso players excel, and coaches concentrate on these advantages. Marvin doesn't bring enough in one or two areas to feature him more prominently. I'd love to think that team ball and old fashioned offense can still win but this hasn't been the case for over 20 years. Every team runs the same offensive sets as the other 29. The difference is as S&M proved: you know what they're going to do and you still can't stop it.

Marvin is role but shows flashes that make you scratch your head.

 

[colton]

I think the shots performance analysis is probably reverse causal. I.e. he got more shots because he was playing well rather than he plays better when he gets more shots.

Sent from my HTC One using JazzFanz mobile app

Hey, I just got an HTC One myself! Sweet phone.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Disagree. I hate to bring in another worn out AK comparison but Marvin plays that role with a worse outside shot, less length, lower finishing ability, and nowhere near AK's excellent court vision.


The NBA is a game where excellent iso players excel, and coaches concentrate on these advantages. Marvin doesn't bring enough in one or two areas to feature him more prominently. I'd love to think that team ball and old fashioned offense can still win but this hasn't been the case for over 20 years. Every team runs the same offensive sets as the other 29. The difference is as S&M proved: you know what they're going to do and you still can't stop it.

Marvin is role but shows flashes that make you scratch your head.

Great points. I agree.

 

[fishonjazz]

Dalamon and frank both with great posts with lots of wonderful analysis...... and in the end the conclusion seems to be

He might could be pretty good in the right situation but probably won't not be, maybe

 

[b_line]

It's refreshing to read some analysis and some stats about actual basketball. Thanks for this thread guys.

I was pretty excited about the marv last year. I forgot about him after November started. I think he could be a valuable vet guy to take away minutes from guys who the fans think are good. I.e. if burks continues to not develop, play marv and Hayward big minutes this year, and then when we draft Jabari, play marv as his backup and stretch four. If burks is good, then we just let marv play his crappy quiet guy role once more, and sign someone else in the offseason next year.

 

[fishonjazz]

It's refreshing to read some analysis and some stats about actual basketball. Thanks for this thread guys.

I was pretty excited about the marv last year. I forgot about him after November started. I think he could be a valuable vet guy to take away minutes from guys who the fans think are good. I.e. if burks continues to not develop, play marv and Hayward big minutes this year, and then when we draft Jabari, play marv as his backup and stretch four. IF BURKS IS GOOD, then we just let marv play his crappy quiet guy role once more, and sign someone else in the offseason next year.

pssshhh come on man