What If The Tank Doesn't Work

[SojoDave]

I've followed NBA basketball forever and I've seen teams bounce back from one year tanks, but I have also seen teams tank, and stay at the bottom for a long time. Tanking does not guarantee just one year of losing. Even though the Jazz have a lot of expiring contracts, there are no guarantees there will be the free agents that will change losing. The draft is always a crap shoot and even with a high pick, you could draft a bust.

The scarey thing about tanking, is I don't know if this market will support a long-term tank job. Tanking could potentially cause us to lose the franchise if we aren't able to draw a crowd. I hope the Miller's have the stomach for a full-on tank and we don't start trying to make short-term moves to prevent the tank. I don't know if the Miller's have the wallet for a long-term tank. I think Dennis Lindsey is making the right moves by having the Jazz tank, but this may not work if we lose the franchise.

 

[franklin]

Timing matters. There are a ton of top talents this year so it's worth the risk.

Bobcats are the poster child for how to not tank, but in hindsight they got extremely lucky in draft after draft. If the Jazz don't get lucky this year then I don't think all is lost. Someone will want to trade for all these draft picks they've accumulated and there is plenty cap space.

 

[LogGrad98]

Shhhhhhhhhh.

Shhhhhh.

Shhh.

Shh.

 

[GVC]

there is plenty cap space.

Not really. ~$15mm IIRC.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

Not really. ~$15mm IIRC.

According to this Hoopsworld write up, the Jazz can have between 23-43 million depending on what they do with Favors and Hayward.

hoopsworld

Using that top number of 43 Favors extension would drop it to a cap number of 31, and if Hayward gets 12.5 it will drop again to around 18. (Yes I'm doing a bit of rounding to make it easy)
If we get the #1 pick and prance away with Wiggins it will drop that number to around 15.

Just a little backup to your 15 number that could be right, but we could end up with slightly more.

 

[fishonjazz]

Like frank said..... Timing matters

And besides, the jazz are tanking in a way that has never been done before. The Professional Stealth Tank!

I give you my guarantee that this tank will be a success.

 

[Siro]

According to this Hoopsworld write up, the Jazz can have between 23-43 million depending on what they do with Favors and Hayward.

hoopsworld

Using that top number of 43 Favors extension would drop it to a cap number of 31, and if Hayward gets 12.5 it will drop again to around 18. (Yes I'm doing a bit of rounding to make it easy)
If we get the #1 pick and prance away with Wiggins it will drop that number to around 15.

Just a little backup to your 15 number that could be right, but we could end up with slightly more.

Will 15 million be enough to extend Kanter and Burks? Plus whatever the team can do to strengthen the bench?

 

[Litany]

I believe the Jazz vision is to invest most of their annual salary in three players, fill out the rest of the roster with rookie players and vets looking to compete all while maintaining assets that keep getting turned over.

 

[Stoked]

Like frank said..... Timing matters

And besides, the jazz are tanking in a way that has never been done before. The Professional Stealth Tank!

I give you my guarantee that this tank will be a success.

As you and Frnak said it is all about timming. The Jazz have safety nets in place for no matter what outcome we see. This season really is a win-win for Utah.

 

[One Brow]

There's also a difference between setting up a team so your promising young players will be the best players, and deliberately deciding to lose. The 76ers are tanking. I'm not sure that word describes this year's Jazz.

 

[Stoked]

There's also a difference between setting up a team so your promising young players will be the best players, and deliberately deciding to lose. The 76ers are tanking. I'm not sure that word describes this year's Jazz.

Quick hide! Green is coming!!!!

 

[Litany]

As you and Frnak said it is all about timming. The Jazz have safety nets in place for no matter what outcome we see. This season really is a win-win for Utah.

Exactly.

Dream scenario?

We get the 1st pick and get Wiggins, have Hayward extended at 11 per, get a solid rookie at 15-20 from GSW and get a great FA this summer that is on a movable deal (if necessary depending on Kanter and Burks) move one of our young guys for other assets that maintain competitiveness and help set us up well for the next several years while Wiggins prepares to take over.

No matter who we get next year I don't think we contend until 15-16 even with Wiggins. Playoffs next year? Hopefully. But champ contending isn't happening until Soph year of the superstar (hopefully) from next year.

 

[Stoked]

Exactly.

Dream scenario?

We get the 1st pick and get Wiggins, have Hayward extended at 11 per, get a solid rookie at 15-20 from GSW and get a great FA this summer that is on a movable deal (if necessary depending on Kanter and Burks) move one of our young guys for other assets that maintain competitiveness and help set us up well for the next several years while Wiggins prepares to take over.

No matter who we get next year I don't think we contend until 15-16 even with Wiggins. Playoffs next year? Hopefully. But champ contending isn't happening until Soph year of the superstar (hopefully) from next year.

I do not even think that trading away part of our core is entirely necessary. Think about it. Your scenario:

Favors/Gobert
Kanter/Evans
Hayward/Rush
Wiggins/Burks
Burke/Neto

Plus another draft pick and a free agent. That is a damn solid bench and starting unit. All financially possible depending on how Kanter and Burks do or do not explode. They could keep that team for 3-4 years.

 

[Park Bites]

Will 15 million be enough to extend Kanter and Burks? Plus whatever the team can do to strengthen the bench?

this just gets us to the cap not the luxury line

 

[schneider]

Thinking about the worse possible scenario IMO:

Jazz end up with about 30-35 wins and get a pick between the 10-12th.
The Warriors do well and their pick is somewhere around the 20th.
Core5 look ok but no one looks like a legit first option.

What would Lindsey do?

Answering the OP, I just don't see the Jazz moving. Too much history and great and loyal fans. I also think with some improvement from the young guys, we are just as good in 2014-2015 as we were in 2012-2013, which should be enough to bring fans to the games.

 

[Stoked]

Thinking about the worse possible scenario IMO:

Jazz end up with about 30-35 wins and get a pick between the 10-12th.
The Warriors do well and their pick is somewhere around the 20th.
Core5 look ok but no one looks like a legit first option.

What would Lindsey do?

Answering the OP, I just don't see the Jazz moving. Too much history and great and loyal fans. I also think with some improvement from the young guys, we are just as good in 2014-2015 as we were in 2012-2013, which should be enough to bring fans to the games.

Then Lindsey goes after difference making free agents and/or uses some of our boatload of assets to bring in a guy or two.

 

[NUMBERICA]

First off, I think the Jazz are in an exceptionally good position versus other teams that might be terrible this year in that they already have a host of good young players. Secondly, this is the year to be bad. Thirdly, I personally am bored of mediocrity and was especially bored watching last year's team.

 

[Revolution 9]

Favors/Gobert
Kanter/Evans
Hayward/Rush
Wiggins/Burks
Burke/Neto

Damn that is a sexy line up. We could also upgrade Evans with a specialist. Get a stretch big in his spot, and we are even better.
With Rush we have a shooter. I don't see too many holes in that line up. The only thing I'd worry about is outside shooting(Rush staying healthy).

 

[schneider]

Then Lindsey goes after difference making free agents and/or uses some of our boatload of assets to bring in a guy or two.

I have no idea who we could get via free agency or through a trade. My guess is no one who can be a first option for this team. I think the better move would be trying to move up in the draft, even if we have to overpay for it. What I'm afraid of is Lindsey just standing pat and we are back to being a mediocre team.

 

[b_line]

First off, I think the Jazz are in an exceptionally good position versus other teams that might be terrible this year in that they already have a host of good young players. Secondly, this is the year to be bad. Thirdly, I personally am bored of mediocrity and was especially bored watching last year's team.

great post.