What's acceptable win total for next season?

[franklin]

Also consider that the Jazz have only been outscored by a total of 525 points this season. That's only 6 games worth of points. Let that sink in for a minute. 6 games off the .500 mark is 38-44! So their current record is not representative of how well they've actually been playing.

Okay bordy, this is what I found. The Jazz rank 6th to last in RPI. If you use the average win % after the first 15 games to adjust those first 15 games up by 4.5 wins then the Jazz probably move up in RPI to around the teams playing 43-44%. Considering I said they were playing more like 46% ball (unadjusted for RPI) before they went 2-16 or whatever, it wasn't so preposterous to say they were already a nearly .500 team next season through growth of Trey, Hayward, Favors, Burks, and creating a properly formed bench through free agency.

 

[green]

As franklin once astutely pointed out, if you ignore the first 15 or so games where we didn't have a point guard, and then ignore the last 35 or so games where the team clearly gave up, Corbin has this team playing essentially .500 ball. Then, consider that all of the top 5 or 6 draft picks played on college teams last year which had winning percentages of .750 or more. So average what Corbin did this year with what we'll be picking up for next year, and I think the baseline for next year has to be around the .625 mark. If we're lenient and want to build in a little wiggle room for injuries or off-nights we can say .624.

52 wins.

Nice. So if you ignore 2/3rds of the season, we are pretty damn good. lol.

 

[green]

Exhibit A: Phoenix.

I'll listen when you show two things: 1 - A player on the Jazz as good as Dragic and Bledose and 2 - Another team that has done the same thing.

 

[Doublea]

I'll listen when you show two things: 1 - A player on the Jazz as good as Dragic and Bledose and 2 - Another team that has done the same thing.

Hornacek has made Dragic that good. There was an interview where Dragic said that Hornacek had gotten him good shots and allowed him to succeed. Let's not pretend that those two players were really good last year. Their coach made them succeed. I'm sure there are other examples too of teams turning it around. Our rebuild isn't going to be as long as some other if we keep our talent.

 

[green]

Hornacek has made Dragic that good. There was an interview where Dragic said that Hornacek had gotten him good shots and allowed him to succeed. Let's not pretend that those two players were really good last year. Their coach made them succeed. I'm sure there are other examples too of teams turning it around. Our rebuild isn't going to be as long as some other if we keep our talent.

The more I look at Hayward, and what he would demand $$$ wise, the less and less I feel confident that he will be back next year.

 

[colton]

You are right it would be silly. It's also silly to think we are a .500 team because we almost won half of our games during the easiest part of our schedule.

His posts were all tongue-in-cheek in case you missed that.

 

[LogGrad98]

Also consider that the Jazz have only been outscored by a total of 525 points this season. That's only 6 games worth of points. Let that sink in for a minute. 6 games off the .500 mark is 38-44! So their current record is not representative of how well they've actually been playing.

Really you should compare the Jazz point differential with the average differential of the league as a whole, and then within the group of teams that are going to finish near .500, say withing 5 games either way. That would be a more valid comparison than just a specious raw number analysis.

 

[bordelais7]

You guys just keep on hatin'. Me and the other True Fans will continue to predict 50+ wins.

 

[DutchJazzer]

Nice. So if you ignore 2/3rds of the season, we are pretty damn good. lol.

if we ignore 81/82th of the season jazz is unbeatable

 

[DutchJazzer]

I'll listen when you show two things: 1 - A player on the Jazz as good as Dragic and Bledose and 2 - Another team that has done the same thing.

FACT before season started phx was considered worse roster.

99 pout of 100gms would chose JAZZ ROSTER!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Jeffrey32]

42+

 

[Stifle Tower]

Nice. So if you ignore 2/3rds of the season, we are pretty damn good. lol.

I choose to just ignore the games we've lost. In games Jazz score more than their opponents, they are 23-0.
Solution: just outscore opponents.

Alternately, Utah could concentrate on defense and hold the opposition to fewer points than they score. It would work either way.

BTW, Phoenix had better, more veteran starters and a much deeper bench. Have they surprised? Certainly. I didn't see them as a playoff threat. But I did predict they would be much better than many were predicting.