2014-15 outlook on Alec Burks: Starter or 6th man?

[Sexual Favors]

Start him regardless of who we draft. If we get an SF who is better than Hayward, let Hayward and Burks duke out for the starting gig at sg midseason. Start the C5 pre all star break regardless of who we draft, simply becuse they earned it, and it will also make the new rookie more competitive. If our rookies are better come all star break, let them start.

 

[GVC]

Sorry, I was being a moran and actually thinking of TS% for some reason (if you apply what I said to TS% it should actually make some sense). I learned long ago that questioning you on this stuff generally makes me look like a moran.

Last time this came up, I gave an example. Here's another:

Player 1: 4-5 from 2; 8 points, 5 field goal attempts, 5 possessions, 0 shooting fouls drawn; 1.6 PPP, 1.6 PPS

Player 2: 2-6 from 2, 6-10 from line: 10 points, 6 field goal attempts, 11 possessions, 5 shooting fouls drawn; .9 PPP, 1.7 PPS

The question: Are those 5 shooting fouls worth 7.6 points in addition to the made free throws?
The answer: No ****ing way.

 

[fishonjazz]

Last time this came up, I gave an example. Here's another:

Player 1: 4-5 from 2; 8 points, 5 field goal attempts, 5 possessions, 0 shooting fouls drawn; 1.6 PPP, 1.6 PPS

Player 2: 2-6 from 2, 6-10 from line: 10 points, 6 field goal attempts, 11 possessions, 5 shooting fouls drawn; .9 PPP, 1.7 PPS

The question: Are those 5 shooting fouls worth 7.6 points in addition to the made free throws?
The answer: No ****ing way.

I consider that cherry picking.

Set up a perfect scenario to prove your point but isnt it true that the best players have high pps?

Why do best players have high pps?

 

[GVC]

I consider that cherry picking.

Set up a perfect scenario to prove your point but isnt it true that the best players have high pps?

Why do best players have high pps?

We've been over this before. Those questions are irrelevant. I've given the reasons why PPS is worse than many other available stats. Good shooters/scorers will score well in most of these shooting stats.

 

[fishonjazz]

We've been over this before. Those questions are irrelevant. I've given the reasons why PPS is worse than many other available metrics. Good shooters/scorers will score well in most of these shooting stats.

give me the names of some really good players with low pps and i will see your point better

 

[fishonjazz]

Since TS% is better...... how does burks stack up in that category?

He has a pretty field goal percentage, and decent from 3.

Im just curious cause it seems like most players that have good pps would also have a good TS%

 

[franklin]

Last time this came up, I gave an example. Here's another:

Player 1: 4-5 from 2; 8 points, 5 field goal attempts, 5 possessions, 0 shooting fouls drawn; 1.6 PPP, 1.6 PPS

Player 2: 2-6 from 2, 6-10 from line: 10 points, 6 field goal attempts, 11 possessions, 5 shooting fouls drawn; .9 PPP, 1.7 PPS

The question: Are those 5 shooting fouls worth 7.6 points in addition to the made free throws?
The answer: No ****ing way.

I just want to make sure you're clear that I'm agreeing with you.

@fish -- it's not cherry picking when we analyze the holes in this or that statistical measurement. It's one of those times when cherry picking is fully valid, and necessary to improve the equations (i.e. Al Jefferson's elite PER).

 

[fishonjazz]

I just want to make sure you're clear that I'm agreeing with you.

@fish -- it's not cherry picking when we analyze the holes in this or that statistical measurement. It's one of those times when cherry picking is fully valid, and necessary to improve the equations (i.e. Al Jefferson's elite PER).

well i agree that there will be rare scenarios where high pps doesnt neccessarily equal efficient scoring or a good offensive game

But i think usually if a guy has a game where his pps is high then that means he had a good offensive game.

 

[fishonjazz]

there are games where a player will be 1-5 from the field and have a whole bunch of free throws and in that case pps isnt very valuable.

Buts there are lots of games where a player will go 8-16 from the field and 7-8 from line and 1-3 from three and in that case i think the pps would tell us he had a good game.

I understand that pps isnt perfect but i think that if a player is top 6 in the league in pps then that player is in the company of some very good players. (Lebron, harden, love, durant, etc etc. I think those guys are all pretty good)

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Last time this came up, I gave an example. Here's another:

Player 1: 4-5 from 2; 8 points, 5 field goal attempts, 5 possessions, 0 shooting fouls drawn; 1.6 PPP, 1.6 PPS

Player 2: 2-6 from 2, 6-10 from line: 10 points, 6 field goal attempts, 11 possessions, 5 shooting fouls drawn; .9 PPP, 1.7 PPS

The question: Are those 5 shooting fouls worth 7.6 points in addition to the made free throws?
The answer: No ****ing way.

Give me player two every time. He's attacking, he's getting either opposing players in foul trouble or getting the opposing team in the penalty or both.

Once again, PPS gives us LeBron, Durant, Harden, Griffin and Love. Those guys are more player two than player one because they are always attacking and drawing fouls - hurting the other team with more than just the points they score. I like PPS because it does give more credit to guys who attack. Those five mentioned aren't the best in the league because they sit back and shoot jumpshots all day - PPS tells a story about how a scorer is hurting the opposing defense.

 

[franklin]

Since TS% is better...... how does burks stack up in that category?

He has a pretty field goal percentage, and decent from 3.

Im just curious cause it seems like most players that have good pps would also have a good TS%

I don't know where to find pps, but my calculation based on b-r.com data is an elite 1.3178. They list his TS% at .549, which is very respectable without any analysis.

For comparison, Carmelo is .561 and 1.285. James is 1.54 and .649.

 

[fishonjazz]

I don't know where to find pps, but my calculation based on b-r.com data is an elite 1.3178. They list his TS% at .549, which is very respectable without any analysis.

For comparison, Carmelo is .561 and 1.285. James is 1.54 and .649.

That lebron number is amazing

 

[fishonjazz]

I don't know where to find pps, but my calculation based on b-r.com data is an elite 1.3178. They list his TS% at .549, which is very respectable without any analysis.

For comparison, Carmelo is .561 and 1.285. James is 1.54 and .649.

Thanks for lookin it up

 

[GVC]

I just want to make sure you're clear that I'm agreeing with you.

I know. Didn't want to multi-quote or multi-post.

@fish -- it's not cherry picking when we analyze the holes in this or that statistical measurement. It's one of those times when cherry picking is fully valid, and necessary to improve the equations (i.e. Al Jefferson's elite PER).

What Fish is missing is that my pps argument can be applied to Alec. Is he really the 6th most effective scorer from the 2? No, but PPS overvalues his scoring because he gets to the line.

That's not to say I don't like Alec. I think, at worst, he's a more than adequate 6th man, which I consider one of the 5 most important individual roles on a basketball team (offensive hub 1 and 2, rim protector, perimeter stopper, 6th man). He's got the lowest probability of falling out of one of those roles on the team (not 100% sold on Favors, especially with all the little injuries).

 

[fishonjazz]

I know. Didn't want to multi-quote or multi-post.

What Fish is missing is that my pps argument can be applied to Alec. Is he really the 6th most effective scorer from the 2? No

Why not?
If he shoots a good percentage from the field, shoots a decent percentage from 3, and gets to the line a lot where he shoots a decent/good percentage then why would he not be the 6th most effective scorer from the 2?

Is it because he doesn't attempt enough shots or play enough minutes?

For instance.... lets says the jazz decide that burks is the man now and so they decide to feature him in the offense as the number 1 option. Assume Burks averages 37 minutes per game (like Hayward) and attempts like 6 or 7 more shots per game and gets to the line a few more times per game and keeps his same FG%, 3pt%, and free throw %.

Wouldn't he be putting up some amazing numbers and be talked about like the other players in the top of PPS?

 

[GVC]

Give me player two every time. He's attacking, he's getting either opposing players in foul trouble or getting the opposing team in the penalty or both.

Once again, PPS gives us LeBron, Durant, Harden, Griffin and Love. Those guys are more player two than player one because they are always attacking and drawing fouls - hurting the other team with more than just the points they score. I like PPS because it does give more credit to guys who attack. Those five mentioned aren't the best in the league because they sit back and shoot jumpshots all day - PPS tells a story about how a scorer is hurting the opposing defense.

These stats all miss some of the context, for sure. We don't observe in the boxscore where these shots were taken from, how they were defended, whether they were taken as a last resort, as the end result of well-executed offense, in transition, off an offensive rebound, etc. I agree that drawing fouls is a decent indicator of pressure put on opposing defenses.

There are better ways to correct for that than counting free throw attempts as 0 possessions used. I find it hard to believe you'd take the guy producing 10 points on 11 possessions over the guy producing 8 points on 5, just because of the 5 fouls he's drawn. Again, if those fouls were worth so much, (7.6 points, as calculated previously), there'd never be any reason to challenge any shot where a foul were remotely possible.

Alec is one of the exceptions that proves the rule IMO. He's a nice player, but he certainly isn't the 6th best scorer at the 2.

 

[fishonjazz]

Basically if a player is near the top of the PPS list of the nba then that player is either REALLY REALLY good,.......... or doesn't play as many minutes or get as many shots, and isn't the number option in the offense. (alec burks)

 

[GVC]

Looking at the list of top scoring 2s...Maybe Alec is closer to top 6 than I had originally thought.

After Harden, Wade and Joe Johnson, it's kinda wide open (depending on whether you consider Dragic a 2, and what you think about Monta, DeMar, Klay and KMart).

 

[fishonjazz]

Just seems like if it was a worthless stat that shows nothing then there would be more average-below average players like burks in the top 10.

 

[fishonjazz]

Looking at the list of top scoring 2s...Maybe Alec is closer to top 6 than I had originally thought.

After Harden, Wade and Joe Johnson, it's kinda wide open (depending on whether you consider Dragic a 2, and what you think about Monta, DeMar, Klay and KMart).

I think dragic is a pretty valuable player, monta is very talented and helping out a western conference playoff team, Demar derozans team is in third place in the east with him as the primary option (iirc) I think he is pretty good, Klay Thompson has a lot of people thinking he will be a future all star, and kevin martin is probably the worst of the bunch and even he is a pretty tough guy to stop from scoring and has had some borderline all star caliber years.

And alec is higher on the list than some of them? Maybe he is better than we think