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Pelton's WARP Projections

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r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t

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Sorry if this was posted elsewhere.

Pelton has ranked Ford's top 100 by average projected WARP over their first five seasons.

https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/dra...ops-kevin-pelton-prospect-projection-rankings

When it comes to the 2014 NBA draft, the numbers tell a clear story: Don't believe the hype. For all the excitement this year's crop of freshmen has generated, none of them rate as well in my projections as last year's top prospect, former Kentucky center Nerlens Noel...

1. Smart
2. Capela
3. Nurkic
4. Exum
5. Jordan Adams
6. Embiid
7. Parker
8. Vonleh
9. PJ Hairston
10. Ennis
14. Gordon
15. Randle
19. Wiggins
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
Why? Because it doesn't mirror the groupthink mock drafts? How is it that so many drafted players bust, and yet every single mock draft is so similar?
Click to expand...

Just read the article and see where Pelton and other draft "geeks" have placed some of the best and compare their rankings against what actually transpired. You can't possibly think Euro and college stats will mirror what happens in the NBA. If you do, better pick McDermott. He's going to be Larry Bird. And I'm sure Adam Morrison is well on his way to eclipsing all of Pistol Pete's records.
 
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franklin said:
Forbes put out a good column covering Pelton's WARP, among other pre-draft analyticals.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhe...s-marcus-smart-isnt-best-player-in-nba-draft/
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This is good? All the guy does is throw out a few examples of bad projections from the past couple of drafts, and even some of those are hardly bad (mocking Drummond at 5?). And Pelton's projections are supposed to be over 5 seasons, so there is still plenty of time for his guys to turn it around.

Where are all the examples of the team's draft busts?
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
This is good? All the guy does is throw out a few examples of bad projections from the past couple of drafts, and even some of those are hardly bad (mocking Drummond at 5?). And Pelton's projections are supposed to be over 5 seasons, so there is still plenty of time for his guys to turn it around.

Where are all the examples of the team's draft busts?
Click to expand...
Are you Pelton?
Let me tell you what you should do. You should test your theories. Go back over the past 10 years of the draft. It's easy to google college and pro stats. Show the actual production for the 1st round picks compared to what your WARP(ed) method would have predicted. It's called the scientific method. If you want to have a system used and accepted by NBA execs and fans, you have to show it works within a reliable range. This article show it's pretty awful. But yes, if you can't make the data match your already determined theory, then rely on the "give it time" excuse.
 
Core4 said:
Just read the article and see where Pelton and other draft "geeks" have placed some of the best and compare their rankings against what actually transpired. You can't possibly think Euro and college stats will mirror what happens in the NBA. If you do, better pick McDermott. He's going to be Larry Bird. And I'm sure Adam Morrison is well on his way to eclipsing all of Pistol Pete's records.
Click to expand...

Did you see McDermott in the list? Seems like you are arguing some other point not made by me or Pelton...
 
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