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Smartphones to replace computers soon

SaltyDawg said:
Are you not following along or something? Nowhere did I say computer sales would be zero. Please show me where I said that. In several posts I said, and this is a copy and paste from one of my posts in this very thread:
"I agree there will be the abnormal case where someone needs a super powerful desktop for pro video production, video games that are better than current gen consoles, etc. But for average computing- email, web, word, excel, music, photos, home videos, current gen console quality gaming, skype, etc, these phones will be more than enough."

So you can stop trying to split hairs. I have been clear about my position since we had this discussion on the old board, and into this current thread.
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Millions of units sold are "abnormal"? Within the 4 year time span you identified? I showed you the definition of your own thread title and tried to show that reasonably the PC will be around for a very long time. You said 4 years, and that at that point any PC use would be abnormal. But industry projections show not just that PCs will be in use but that the segment is going to actually grow over the next 5 years. I see you are not open to reasonable discourse.
 
Ok so maybe you can define replace then. So soon = 4 years, what does replace mean? You called everyone who disagreed with you "clowns" in the very first post. I think those "clowns" deserve to see why you believe they are so, well, clownish. Soon is 4 years, what is replace? Is that why you use so many ambiguous terms ("average computing" being one...according to your definition list there, what you call average computing is what the prognosticators say will drive PC sales for the next 5 years).

By the way, feel free to disregard the projections that show PC sales growing over the next 4 years in making your definition of "replace".
 
LogGrad98 said:
Millions of units sold are "abnormal"? Within the 4 year time span you identified? I showed you the definition of your own thread title and tried to show that reasonably the PC will be around for a very long time. You said 4 years, and that at that point any PC use would be abnormal. But industry projections show not just that PCs will be in use but that the segment is going to actually grow over the next 5 years. I see you are not open to reasonable discourse.
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I'm open to reasonable discourse. But when I clarify my argument, and you still try to split hairs and claim I really meant something else, that is not reasonable discourse. If you followed this thread, then you knew what my argument was. If you haven't followed the thread, then you need to get caught up before you go splitting hairs, because I have stated my argument many times now. And never once did I say PC sales would literally be zero. And you are the only one that brought that up. The "clowns" I called out in the first post knew what I meant. They never questioned PC sales being literally zero.

Again, the average user will use his smartphone more than a home computer in about 4 years. There will be exceptions for hardcore users doing pro video production, hardcore gaming, and things like that. But the average home user who uses their computer for music, photos, home videos, streaming videos, email, web surfing, word, excel, etc, will use their smartphone a lot more than their home computer.

Much like the car "replaced" the horse, but there are still horse sales every year.

And I have also already said in this thread that I don't expect all of the current home computers to rot away in 4 years so people will still own them. I just think they will mostly be dust collectors for the average person. There will still be computers, and even computer sales. But the average user will be buying and using smartphones instead.

I understand you can cherry pick data and see that some people expect computer sales to grow (and I expect those numbers to be revised in 4 years). But if you look a little closer, you will see smartphone sales growing at a much faster rate than computer sales. So if the average user is going to own a smartphone in 4 years, and that smartphone duplicates (and even exceeds) the production, speed, and convenience of a laptop, why would that average person buy a laptop anyway?

And if the smartphone turns on (fully booted up) in half a second and loads everything significantly faster than a laptop (and you need to try a current gen smartphone if you disagree with this) then why would an average user go out of their way to grab their old laptop and wait for it to boot up? Even putting the phone in a dock it still "boots up" exponentially faster than a computer.

And don't give me the 5" screen and tiny keyboard argument, because I have made it clear there will be docks that rectify these issues (and there is a link showing it in action in the first post) for significantly cheaper than buying a laptop or desktop, and will still be a lot faster.

Find me someone who makes their living selling programs that they develop themselves who is putting more energy into developing PC apps than smartphone apps. There are literally thousands of new smartphone apps hitting the various app stores every day. There is nowhere near that level of development for the PC.

It's easy to find a bunch of clowns that have never owned a cell phone, or just barely got their first cell phone a few months ago, or have never owned a smartphone, or even own a smartphone but only use it for calls and texts, that will disagree with me. But I guarantee you, every major computer manufacturer is making smartphones right now for a reason. Microsoft is putting Windows 7 on tablets right now (and making Windows 8 SoC compatible) for a reason.
 
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Salty was very clearly right.

Its very very clear which way the wind is blowing.

And honestly its not just him who thinks this...the whole industry has been talking about this for years and years.
 
SaltyDawg said:
I answered it already. Because the average user has been replacing their desktop with a laptop for a while now.

But smartphones are growing at an even faster rate.

So, watch that video in the first post and then come tell me why someone would buy a laptop after buying that phone.


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
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not sure why I really want to wade into this debate, but I disagree with the premise that the smart phone will replace the computer, at least not within the time frame Salty mentions (4 years?)

a couple of points - -

Salty cites the fact that smart phone sales are growing at a faster rate than computer sales. This reflects a few things that really have nothing to do with a possible demise in the use of computers:
1 - phone companies keep offering special deals for upgrading phones, giving consumers an incentive to do so every two years or less. That doesn't seem to be the case with computers.
2 - at this point, the technology on the phones is evolving more rapidly that the technology on computers, again providing folks with an incentive to replace their cell phone
3 - families are buying these phones for their children, it's not unusual for a family of 5 to have 5 different cell phones on their plan. It's more unusual for that family to have 5 separate computers in their household. Just because a family has 5 smart phones but only 2 computers in the household does not mean that they are replacing all the tasks done with the computer by using their smart phone.

Also, I agree with those who say that as folks age, or for young kids who lack the manual dexterity for a phone's keyboard, many people will prefer to use the computer (I'm not differentiating between a desktop and laptop here) because of its larger screen and keyboard. Perhaps as Salty says, that will be replaced by smart phone "add-ons" that will mimic a larger computer, but I'm not sure folks will be in a hurry to spend the money it will take to totally revamp what they already have. Perhaps somewhere down the line that will happen, but for the foreseeable future I don't see consumers spending the money to do so.

Nor do I think corporations are going to be willing to make the investment to revamp their product line to develop and promote those sorts of gadgets given the current economic climate.

As you may know, I don't have a "smart" phone so I can't really speak from personal experience. I do have an ipod touch which is pretty similar, it just can't make phone calls and needs wifi rather than being able to access the phone system. But it does alot and carries no service charges, a big plus in my book.
But my kids all do have smart phones, and I see them use their phones all the time. They also have laptops, and they're often using both simultaneously. Now perhaps there is a way to do that with one device, I don't know, but from what I observe, it seems it would be pretty difficult.
 
SaltyDawg said:
...argue with someone who makes a lot of money in this industry and has been reading Jazzfanz from a smartphone longer than anyone else (just ask Jason when I first started asking for a mobile version).
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no offense Salty, but this reminds me of the folks who reply to D-Will's facebook updates with a comment of "first" because they want to be sure everyone knows they were the first to respond, LOL!
 
I'd be fine using a phone for everything as long as I had a good sized monitor. If you're reading on a 4.3" screen every day for long periods you're heading towards some serious eye damage down the road.
 
moevillini said:
not sure why I really want to wade into this debate, but I disagree with the premise that the smart phone will replace the computer, at least not within the time frame Salty mentions (4 years?)

a couple of points - -

Salty cites the fact that smart phone sales are growing at a faster rate than computer sales. This reflects a few things that really have nothing to do with a possible demise in the use of computers:
1 - phone companies keep offering special deals for upgrading phones, giving consumers an incentive to do so every two years or less. That doesn't seem to be the case with computers.
2 - at this point, the technology on the phones is evolving more rapidly that the technology on computers, again providing folks with an incentive to replace their cell phone
3 - families are buying these phones for their children, it's not unusual for a family of 5 to have 5 different cell phones on their plan. It's more unusual for that family to have 5 separate computers in their household. Just because a family has 5 smart phones but only 2 computers in the household does not mean that they are replacing all the tasks done with the computer by using their smart phone.

Also, I agree with those who say that as folks age, or for young kids who lack the manual dexterity for a phone's keyboard, many people will prefer to use the computer (I'm not differentiating between a desktop and laptop here) because of its larger screen and keyboard. Perhaps as Salty says, that will be replaced by smart phone "add-ons" that will mimic a larger computer, but I'm not sure folks will be in a hurry to spend the money it will take to totally revamp what they already have. Perhaps somewhere down the line that will happen, but for the foreseeable future I don't see consumers spending the money to do so.

Nor do I think corporations are going to be willing to make the investment to revamp their product line to develop and promote those sorts of gadgets given the current economic climate.

As you may know, I don't have a "smart" phone so I can't really speak from personal experience. I do have an ipod touch which is pretty similar, it just can't make phone calls and needs wifi rather than being able to access the phone system. But it does alot and carries no service charges, a big plus in my book.
But my kids all do have smart phones, and I see them use their phones all the time. They also have laptops, and they're often using both simultaneously. Now perhaps there is a way to do that with one device, I don't know, but from what I observe, it seems it would be pretty difficult.
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You do a pretty good job of spelling out exactly why smartphones will replace computers in the near future...

You basically say they're cheaper, phone companies pushing them, everyone getting one, technology moving faster, and so on.

So you basically you agree that just about everyone who actively uses a home computer will probably get a smartphone at some point in the near future, and that phone will probably be as technologically advanced as the old computer they are using today.

I understand that the ipod you use today can't replace your computer. It wasn't designed to. But the smartphones coming out this year were designed to replace your computer. See the one in the first post.

It's hilarious that all these people are saying "my current smartphone can't do it, so it will never happen..." Or even worse, "I have never even owned a cell phone, but you're a moron if you think they will be able to replace computers..."

The point is, the new ones can easily replace computers. They do everything you probably use your computer for, much faster than your computer. And if you agree that most people will own a smartphone (carriers pushing them, cheap price, the reason doesn't matter) then it's not a stretch to say people will use them, and not spend the extra money for a new computer.



Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, but I am predicting that it is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in the four year time span you predicted

My prediction is that in spite of whatever additional bells and whistles the phone and computer companies may come up with, most folks will still prefer to use BOTH devices for various tasks. They may use their phones more in the future than they currently do, but that is not the same as saying they'll use it exclusively and feel no need for a laptop or desktop as part of a complementary system.

As KEK pointed out, all the docking equipment doesn't appear to be something you can easily pack up and carry from room to room, or to the library, or wherever. Unless you're predicting that libraries, coffee shops, etc will all have an ample supply of these gadgets so people can dock their smart phones to do the work they normally do on a laptop. But that goes back to my point about corporate investment, or lack thereof.
 
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