Dante Exum has turned into Danny Green (...and his worrying lack of aggression)

[stitches]

I posted this yesterday:

I was wondering today who Dante reminds me of when it comes to the shots he's taking and I thought of Danny Green. Then I looked at their shot distribution and they are almost identical:

3P Danny Green: 60%
3P Dante Exum: 58%

10-23 feet Green: 15%
10-23 feet Dante: 15%

3-10 feet Green: 7%
3-10 feet Dante: 10%

0-3 feet Green: 18%
0-3 feet Dante:17%

... and I decided to expand my research about his shot selection and about his aggression today.

Dante's currently going to the FT line 1.5 times per 36Mins and Danny Green is doing it 1.7 times per 36 min. This is the number that's most worrying of all and it confirms the eye-test saying he's extremely passive and avoids attacking the rim.

I am really concerned with the lack of aggression. There are very very few players who have improved considerably their aggression past their rookie season starting from under 2 FTA/36.

Here's the list of players under 20 in their rookie year who have been this passive(going to the line under 2 times per 36). As you can see, not a very good company to be in and pretty much the only players to have significant jumps down the road in their careers are Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford and none of the PGs have experienced great increase in their FTA/36.

Here's the same list of all rookie guards(no age restriction) - list

As you can see... those lists are extremely troubling. If we expect Dante's aggression to pick up we'd be asking him to be an outlier in that part of the game.

The most shocking thing about Dante is that his ability to go to the FT line was actually touted as one of his best skills. In one of the FIBA World cup tournaments he averaged 10FTA/game, which is ridiculous at any level. This right now, is my biggest hope that Dante can be the exception to the lists I posted above and that with maturation and getting stronger his aggression will pick up.

 

[Jamezz]

I posted this yesterday:


... and I decided to expand my research about his shot selection and about his aggression today.

Dante's currently going to the FT line 1.5 times per 36Mins and Danny Green is doing it 1.7 times per 36 min. This is the number that's most worrying of all and it confirms the eye-test saying he's extremely passive and avoids attacking the rim.

I am really concerned with the lack of aggression. There are very very few players who have improved considerably their aggression past their rookie season starting from under 2 FTA/36.

Here's the list of players under 20 in their rookie year who have been this passive(going to the line under 2 times per 36). As you can see, not a very good company to be in and pretty much the only players to have significant jumps down the road in their careers are Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford and none of the PGs have experienced great increase in their FTA/36.

Here's the same list of all rookie guards(no age restriction) - list

As you can see... those lists are extremely troubling. If we expect Dante's aggression to pick up we'd be asking him to be an outlier in that part of the game.

The most shocking thing about Dante is that his ability to go to the FT line was actually touted as one of his best skills. In one of the FIBA World cup tournaments he averaged 10FTA/game, which is ridiculous at any level. This right now, is my biggest hope that Dante can be the exception to the lists I posted above and that with maturation and getting stronger his aggression will pick up.

Good research, but let's take into account that we're talking about a rookie here.

 

[NAOS]

Did Dante bust all over your face?

 

[stitches]

Good research, but let's take into account that we're talking about a rookie here.

The lists I posted are of players in their rookie years.

 

[gregbroncs]

Good research, but let's take into account that we're talking about a rookie here.

A rookie with no college experience and missed a chunk of basketball time. I am willing to hope that he's just getting comfortable with the game. But I'm starting to worry a bit that we had Ingles bring the ball up the floor instead of him for the last half of the Indiana game.

 

[gregbroncs]

Also are you comparing the current Green or the rookie version? Playing like an NBA veteran from a good team is not bad when you are a 19 year old rookie.

 

[Siro]

I don't get the "he's just a rookie" responses when the original post is ALL about comparison with other rookies and how they turned out.

 

[enchilada_style]

He lacks strength even if he did drive more often we'd be complaining about how he can't finish. Either way he has a long way to go and everyone should have known this going in.

 

[gregbroncs]

I don't get the "he's just a rookie" responses when the original post is ALL about comparison with other rookies and how they turned out.

He compared him to DANNY GREEN. Green is not a rookie. Also I did not look at the list but I think there are unusual circumstances around Exum.

 

[NAOS]

I wish I could convey to you all how little I expect out of Exum this year and next.

I see small signs of progress, and I take them as gifts. Free lil gifts. And then I don't get down in the dumps when he does stuff like a kid who last played ball in an Australian High School.

Just keepin it sane, haughs.

 

[Siro]

He lacks strength even if he did drive more often we'd be complaining about how he can't finish. Either way he has a long way to go and everyone should have known this going in.

Not many 19 year old rookies possess superior strengths compared to established NBA players. The comparison is with those other rookies. Regardless of how unready he is, I don't see any natural aggression in his game. And that doesn't only apply to his driving. It takes him forever to bring the ball up the court. He passes in slow motion. When he's fouled it looks like he might die. But as soon as he passes the ball in half court, he will run into the corner and hide in a flash. That's where he's most aggressive, in avoiding getting the ball back.

 

[stitches]

He compared him to DANNY GREEN. Green is not a rookie. Also I did not look at the list but I think there are unusual circumstances around Exum.

The Danny Green part is separate. It's about his shot selection and the type of player he is right now - i.e. catch and shoot 3P shooter, who does little to no damage inside the paint or off the dribble. The part about the FTAs is about his aggression and in that part I'm giving lists of players who have been passive(not going to the rim a lot) in their rookie years(low FTA) and not many of them increased their FTA to respectable numbers in the league... I will try to post more about it before the game vs Chicago starts.

 

[NAOS]

19-year old kid from Australia plays 30-some games, then gets abused by statistics.

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH xxxx x xxxxx x xxxx xxxxxx x xxxxx xxxx x xxxxx xxxx. xxxxx x xxxx xx x xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxx xx. xxxx x xxxxx x xxxx xxxxxx x xxxxx xxxx x xxxxx xxxx. xxxxx x xxxx xx x xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxx xx.xxxx x xxxxx x xxxx xxxxxx x xxxxx xxxx x xxxxx xxxx. xxxxx x xxxx xx x xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxx xx.

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[Siro]

19-year old kid from Australia plays 30-some games, then gets abused by statistics.

Why is that relevant? We're bringing up a personality issue, not a skill issue. A relevant response would be something like "he was plenty aggressive in international competition".

 

[NAOS]

Why is that relevant? We're bringing up a personality issue, not a skill issue. A relevant response would be something like "he was plenty aggressive in international competition".

Things are relevant or irrelevant when I say so.




<<You are now permitted to respond to this post>>

 

[Jamezz]

I don't get the "he's just a rookie" responses when the original post is ALL about comparison with other rookies and how they turned out.

But but, he's just a rookie man

 

[framer]

He is still a whelp physically, but he has a good frame. Just the fact that he will fill in should help immensely. It certainly has with Hayward who, at age 24, has finally reached his peak basketball form. I'm OK being patient.

 

[stitches]

A bit more information about the current starting PGs in the league:

Average for their rookie season: 3.45 FTA/36
Median for their rookie season: 3.2 FTA/36

Average for their best* season: 5.17 FTA/36
Median for their best* season: 5.2 FTA/36

Average for the current season: 4.19 FTA/36
Median for the current season: 4.4 FTA/36

*best when it comes to FTA/36

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

Collison and filler for Burke and Kanter? Would the Kings do that? Should or would we?

 

[Ron Mexico]

I think Exum is playing within coach Quinns system for him. Quinn wants Exum to stay healthy and understand the game and the system before doing more. You dont see or hear the coaching staff wanting Exum to be more aggressive. I think he will bulk up a little next year and be more aggressive. Even towards the end of this season (final third) I think we will see a bit more aggression and letting him play without a leash.