♪alt13
Well-Known Member
The world in 2050
The exponential diffusion of computing and communication technologies will have transformed the world in profound ways. By then, the entire planet’s population will be connected (up from just under 50% in 2015). Computers will be everywhere, from discreet computing devices to microscopic sensors and processors embedded in the environment. They will be woven into our clothes and they will flow through our blood. They will connect us not only to one another, but to every building, street, and even urban vegetation.
Computers will not have diffused enough to be integrated directly into our brain. Instead, people will wear computerized contacts that beam images directly to the retina. Internet connectivity will be ubiquitous across the whole planet, and it will be in the range of Tbps in urban centers with very low latency. People will not do their computing on their own computers, but will have access to infinite computing power on demand through the network. Cameras will be everywhere, and people will be able to “be” anywhere they want virtually and in real time. People across the globe will be able to meet up as if they’re right next to each other. Haptic feedback technologies will enable disparate people to physically interact. Children will grow up playing with other children from all over the world, participating in physical and mental activities with other remotely connected children (they will look like idiots jumping around by themselves to a non-connected individual).
Health care will have come a long way from 2015. Humanity is still some way away from true immortality, but the subject will have been in mainstream consciousness for a couple of decades. Heated debates, sometimes culminating in violence, will have become the norm between those who favor and those who oppose immortality. And while the general public view is that immortality is inevitable within the next few decades, some obstacles remain. A notable controversy is over whether parents should teach their children that they won’t have to die.
The dominant cause of death in 2050 will be cancer. The average life expectancy will have just broken 100, and the advancing age of the population will mean that rates of cancers will have continued to climb. Progress will have been made in fighting most forms of cancer, with 5 year survival rate of over 50% for all cancers. In fact, 10 year survival rate is the common metric for cancer survival in 2050, with many cancers approaching 100%. A complete cure will still elude us for some time.
Another obstacle to immortality that will not have been overcome by 2050 is extracellular damage. By 2050, all organs will be growable from stem cells on demand. Some synthetic organs will be available that even exceeds the performance of our natural ones. Veins, lymph nodes, and other connective issue will be maintainable to an extent, but ultimately, extracellular damage will prove too difficult a problem to be solved by 2050. Progress in mitigating mitochondrial and other types of intercellular damage will have been made and people will generally age more gracefully, and maintain an active lifestyle well into their 80s.
World culture will be far more homogenized than it is today, with little difference between the macro-cultures of the developed world. This is partly due to global telepresence afforded by advanced virtual reality that enables people to practically live wherever they want. However, a new trend of micro-culture had begun to emerge in the previous 2 decades. Those cultures are referred to as “cultures of choice”. They are formed by people who share similar beliefs and interests. This will eventually become the dominant form of culture as nationalist and ethnic ideologies are replaced by humanist ones.
By 2050, China will have been a fully developed country for at least a couple of decades. Despite popular belief in earlier times, developed countries remain in a good position, and newly developed countries simply join that existing world order. The cyclical view of the rise and fall of civilizations has all but disappeared from the zeitgeist. India is also a developed, or soon to be developed, country. The only continent with a majority of under-developed countries in 2050 is Africa. The problem is compounded because the forces of development of the previous eras no longer apply. During the first few decades of the 21st century, manufacturing became more and more automated. Eventually, as China and India became a post-industrial societies, the manufacturing industry did not move on to still-cheap Africa. Instead, automated factories create localized good in response to immediate market demand. 3d printing will have become common-place, and many items, such as clothing and kitchen equipment, will be manufactured at home. More complicated items can be manufactured in small local businesses specialized in 3d printing.
In 2050, the effects of global warming are everywhere. Flooding in low-lying countries like Bangladesh has created a refugee crisis like the world had never seen. Developing countries are more equipped to battle climate change and environmental degradation, and many coastal cities now feature massive flood barriers. And while many previously fertile lands are now barren and deserted other areas greatly benefited from climate change. Most notably, Canada and Russia are now the world top producers of food and a real estate rush have elevated both countries to considerable heights of economic power.
The planet’s ability to feed the massive population with traditional crops will have been far exceeded. Consequently, opposition to GMOs is now seen as quaint. Almost all crops are heavily engineered to increase yields, resist disease and insects, and provide more nutrition. Skyscraper farms will have begun to emerge, but they will not become commonplace until closer to the end of the century.
Since I think about this subject A LOT, I can honestly write a 1000 more pages about this. But I suspect this is already too long for 99% of people around here to read.
I disagree with you on the immortality,cancer and the leading cause of death in 2050, but I am with you on the rest. It seems it is becoming almost impossible to keep up with medical advances, by the time a book about them is even published it is horribly out of date. I think that by 2050 much of the population(I probably won't make it but I might have if I had lived "cleaner") will have reached what Aubrey de Gray calls "Immortality escape velocity". That is that even though we won't have halted aging completely we will have developed therapies that extend our lives long enough to still be living when the next leap in therapies roll around.
I don't think there will be much violence caused directly from the issue of immortality. I think it will creep up on most people and will be thought of as life extension almost up until the point that we do conquer aging. I used to think that there would be much violence towards the end of the century caused by population growth and lack of resources but in the last decade the Total Fertility Rate has dropped much faster than I think even the most optimistic would have thought. Really outside of Nigeria there really isn't an over-fertility problem. There still may be an overpopulation problem looming but it has been pushed back quite a bit and we likely have enough time to properly prepare with new infrastructure.
Cancer and extracellular damage I think will be dealt with much quicker than you think and in much the same ways. Beyond the nanotech we have already developed the capability to insert genes into all kinds of things(viruses,bacteria, and the cells of higher life forms). As far as extracellular junk and damage we have already identified some bacteria that metabolize certain proteins. Genetic engineers are already working on trying to identify the necessary genes and engineer antibodies. Further most of the other damage that I have read about is protein entanglement ie the proteins are just fine individually but they are stuck to one another. That damage should be able to be dealt with using chemistry and maybe even Nanotech. Last i read on the cancer front we are getting very close to engineered viruses that attack cancer and UC Davis is having some success using nanotech to deliver toxins directly into cancer cells.
I think that by 2050 the leading cause of death will be sleeper viruses/quickly mutating viruses and bacteria. It will be the things we don't know to look for and the things we fail to keep up with that will frighten us.
