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Does Lauri Get Traded?

Does Lauri Get Dealt Before The Season Starts?

  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
MT Steve said:
No it isn't. It's designed to show a player's contributions to that specific team's overall success.
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So then I guess using it to show a players contributions to a teams success (also known as helping them win) and trying to apply the actual number it used is flawed... gotcha. My bad.
MT Steve said:
Assign your own values:

50% (I'm being generous - it's probably a LOT lower): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
80% (Being generous again, it's probably lower): The Jazz not drafting a player in the 9-10 spot that is even in the same ballpark as the player they would have drafted in the 4th-5th spot

50% x 79.8% x 80% = 31.9%

Yeah.
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32% chance you miss out on the most important thing that changes the trajectory of the franchise isn't significant... okay.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
So then I guess using it to show a players contributions to a teams success (also known as helping them win) and trying to apply the actual number it used is flawed... gotcha. My bad.

32% chance you miss out on the most important thing that changes the trajectory of the franchise isn't significant... okay.
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You also have to figure in the chance someone 6-10 is better than the guy you would have drafted in the top 5 (shocker, it's very rare the top 5 drafted are the top 5 players, actually think it has never happened in NBA history).
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Wait, so why do we have to trade Walker, a 3rd year player, then? Is 3rd year the cut-off for being too good so you have to trade?
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Your hypothetical assumes we have two rookies who are better than Walker. Its also beyond unlikely. If that happens you now have 2 of the best rookies drafted in the last idk 3-4 years. So you have landed the Chet and JDubb... now you roll forward.

We don't have to trade Walker or Lauri or Sexton... but if you want to sit here and say you will get top 5 pick positioning while keeping those guys then I'm telling you that you are wrong. Go ahead and keep em all if you don't care about positioning yourself in the draft.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Your hypothetical assumes we have two rookies who are better than Walker. Its also beyond unlikely. If that happens you now have 2 of the best rookies drafted in the last idk 3-4 years. So you have landed the Chet and JDubb... now you roll forward.

We don't have to trade Walker or Lauri or Sexton... but if you want to sit here and say you will get top 5 pick positioning while keeping those guys then I'm telling you that you are wrong. Go ahead and keep em all if you don't care about positioning yourself in the draft.
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When did my hypothetical say anything about how good Walker was in that situation?

And yeah, I dont care about pick positioning. The Jazz are in the West. You dont bottom out. It would be beyond stupid unless you are getting compensated in such a way that makes up for it, which they currently arent getting those offers (at least for Lauri) at this point. And yes, you can potentially get a bottom 5 record and still have players perform well.
 
Bros just sit Lauri for the year. Or send him to Finland for war games for most of the season. We’ll be a fifteen win team without him.


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Saint Cy of JFC said:
You also have to figure in the chance someone 6-10 is better than the guy you would have drafted in the top 5 (shocker, it's very rare the top 5 drafted are the top 5 players, actually think it has never happened in NBA history).
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Dumbass... that was one of the 3 things factored in. Jebus.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
When did my hypothetical say anything about how good Walker was in that situation?
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If they are 8 WS types they are better than Walker. Go look at the top WS guys last year. You'd also have two of them... so you have enough talent to move forward.
 
Just an FYI the goal is not to get a top 5 pick.. the goal is to get a star/superstar talent on the roster. If you think Kessler is that then don's sacrifice him to improve the odds you get that guy. If you landed 2 guys of that caliber like in Cy's dumbass hypothetical... then its mission accomplished.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If they are 8 WS types they are better than Walker. Go look at the top WS guys last year. You'd also have two of them... so you have enough talent to move forward.
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Sir you must be in a white heat of anger over this tanking talk because I said together, which would make them roughly 4 a piece which would be what Walker was last year, and we all probably assume Walker will be better than last year...
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
So then I guess using it to show a players contributions to a teams success (also known as helping them win) and trying to apply the actual number it used is flawed... gotcha. My bad.
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It's extremely flawed when you're trying to use it to predict what their WS will be on a team full of rookies and sophomores, yes.

Handlogten's Heros said:
32% chance you miss out on the most important thing that changes the trajectory of the franchise isn't significant... okay.
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I like how 32% is the number I got to by being cartoonishly generous, and you immediately took it as fact when it's probably closer to half-that value with more realistic %'s.. And that was only the odds of the player being drafted with our theoretical 4th-5th pick being a lot better than the guy we draft with a 9th-10th pick.

If you change that to instead be the odds of the Jazz drafting a player with the 4th-5th pick that "changes the trajectory of the franchise", which by that I assume you mean a superstar, then we're really getting small.

20% (Going to be more realistic now): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
20% (Probably being generous, but let's just boost it for the hell of it): The Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick.

20% x 79.8% x 20% = 3.2%

Trade Walker for that 3.2% boost.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Sir you must be in a white heat of anger over this tanking talk because I said together, which would make them roughly 4 a piece which would be what Walker was last year, and we all probably assume Walker will be better than last year...
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My bad. Yeah I don't know that I would move either of them by the deadline or whatevs... it would be a little late for that anyway if they were really providing that much value on top of what the other guys bring. Dunn was a 2 WS guy and KO a 3 win share guy. So replace 8 win shares for half a season on top of Lauri and others then you'd already be effed in the tank race so best to keep those guys as they are showing more promise.
 
MT Steve said:
It's extremely flawed when you're trying to use it to predict what their WS will be on a team full of rookies and sophomores, yes.
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its not... you don't know how good they will or won't be. You don't know how much they will or won't play.
MT Steve said:
I like how 32% is the number I got to by being cartoonishly generous, and you immediately took it as fact when it's probably closer to half-that value with more realistic %'s.. And that was only the odds of the player being drafted with our theoretical 4th-5th pick being a lot better than the guy we draft with a 9th-10th pick.

If you change that to instead be the odds of the Jazz drafting a player with the 4th-5th pick that "changes the trajectory of the franchise", which by that I assume you mean a superstar, then we're really getting small.

20% (Going to be more realistic now): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
20% (Probably being generous, but let's just boost it for the hell of it): The Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick.

20% x 79.8% x 20% = 3.2%

Trade Walker for that 3.2% boost.
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Dude that's your fault. You picked the numbers and then are like "hey that's not fair those numbers suck!!!"
 
Also the teams we are in the tank race are also playing young players and rookies etc. lol... they just don't have the AS player, the rim protecting center, and the efficient guard scorer.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
its not... you don't know how good they will or won't be. You don't know how much they will or won't play.
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If the Jazz are trying to lose, they will be playing plenty. I don't think you need to worry about that. If they're really good to the point where we are 9th-10th worst, then that's fantastic, because it means we nailed those picks.

Handlogten's Heros said:
Dude that's your fault. You picked the numbers and then are like "hey that's not fair those numbers suck!!!"
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lol

I literally told you they were extremely generous in that very same post, to show how silly you were being over acting like it was a guaranteed thing, when the reality is it's miniscule. Go apply your own percentages and see what you come up with.
 
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