Does Lauri Get Traded?

[whatthe]

3 firsts and 4 pick swaps

If you give us a couple of great young players too then yes I would do it. My fear is that Lauri gets even better Small chance, but it could happen. If you want to get to the Conference finals then trade with the Jazz, lol.

 

[underdog]

I think the two most important things that will determine what our franchises next 5 years looks like are
1- Lauri - keeping him or moving him and how he develops
2- Whoever we draft in 2025 with our top 10 pick or not having a top 10 pick if it goes to OKC.

There are other important things but those should be the priorities imo. I just wouldn't mess around with draft position... hitting it big on a top 5 pick changes our world.

Yeah Danny and Zanik have crucial decisions to make this summer.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm just illustrating how the "We'll lose more games without him" impact has really low odds of giving a meaningful benefit in and of itself.

How many wins do you feel he provides?

If you don't think Walker is a building block and you get a really good offer now that you don't think you'll get later, then sure, do it. The tanking aspect of trading him should be a very minimal part of the overall decision.

My issue is DA usually only has the "make me move" price. I would settle for the "hey this is 5% below market but I have reasons to settle now" price with him or Sexton. Sexton I think has a bigger chance to come back and haunt us. Just think we are clearly better than 5-6 teams right now and we have gotten real cute with this before.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

There's really no time crunch, unless I don't understand the rules correctly. The Jazz could negotiate the deal today and then sign it on the 6th. The same thing goes at the deadline they can agree to a trade ahead of time and finalize it at the deadline.

The fact that they haven't agreed to an extension yet points to the fact that they are willing to move Lauri. I do wonder how that makes Lauri feel, hopefully they are communicating.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There's really no time crunch, unless I don't understand the rules correctly. The Jazz could negotiate the deal today and then sign it on the 6th. The same thing goes at the deadline they can agree to a trade ahead of time and finalize it at the deadline.

The fact that they haven't agreed to an extension yet points to the fact that they are willing to move Lauri. I do wonder how that makes Lauri feel, hopefully they are communicating.

Oh they are for sure checking the comps. Like this isn't performative. I just think they also know where the extension talks are and are okay with either route. I think in the next week the market moves with or without them so the direction gets more concrete. I think if they really wanted the GS deal they could get it but I'm guessing they are trying to get one of the teams with more to put up the stuff they really want.

Tony said Lauri and the Jazz are communicating... so I think its all good... maybe.

 

[MT Steve]

How many wins do you feel he provides?

For this year's team, I've pegged him at around a 20% chance to provide enough wins by himself to move us from 4th/5th to 9th/10th.

But again, that isn't the only question. You also have to combine that with the odds of moving up if we keep him, and the odds of us drafting a superstar at 4th/5th (whereas we would not have at 9th/10th).

All in all, the combined odds of it all are just really low. To the point where it just shouldn't be given much weight at all in a trade.

My issue is DA usually only has the "make me move" price. I would settle for the "hey this is 5% below market but I have reasons to settle now" price with him or Sexton. Sexton I think has a bigger chance to come back and haunt us. Just think we are clearly better than 5-6 teams right now and we have gotten real cute with this before.

I don't think we have reasons to settle for a below market price in a buyer's market. If it's a below 50/50 shot at benefitting us in the longterm, with only a very miniscule chance of it resulting in us landing a superstar, I don't think it's a smart gamble.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

For this year's team, I've pegged him at around a 20% chance to provide enough wins by himself to move us from 4th/5th to 9th/10th.

But again, that isn't the only question. You also have to combine that with the odds of moving up if we keep him, and the odds of us drafting a superstar at 4th/5th (whereas we would not have at 9th/10th).

All in all, the combined odds of it all are just really low. To the point where it just shouldn't be given much weight at all in a trade.

I simply wanted a guess at how many wins having Walker Kessler on the roster adds this year.

I don't think we have reasons to settle for a below market price in a buyer's market. If it's a below 50/50 shot at benefitting us in the longterm, with only a very miniscule chance of it resulting in us landing a superstar, I don't think it's a smart gamble.

 

[SteakNEggs]

There's really no time crunch, unless I don't understand the rules correctly. The Jazz could negotiate the deal today and then sign it on the 6th. The same thing goes at the deadline they can agree to a trade ahead of time and finalize it at the deadline.

The fact that they haven't agreed to an extension yet points to the fact that they are willing to move Lauri. I do wonder how that makes Lauri feel, hopefully they are communicating.

I was coming to ask just this.

 

[fishonjazz]

Despite not being a fan of tanking, I still maintain that Lauri is probably traded either this or next offseason.. and its probably the correct move.

Only thing stopping it would be sudden and dramatic change that accelerates our timeline. Could be trade, glow up, lottery win... but its unlikely.

Ya I have always thought, and continue to think, that we will extend him.
After that there is no way to know what happens. It will depend on how we look

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[fishonjazz]

This is such an unbelievably flawed way of estimating how many wins a role player will contribute to a dramatically worse roster. Basketball isn't a "plug this guy in on any roster and he'll get you 'X' amount of more wins". Your teammates have a heavy impact on your own contributions, especially if you're a non-star. And Walker's going to be playing with mostly rookies and sophomores this season.



If you don't think Kessler is a building block and you think you can extract better value by trading him now, then go ahead and do it.

What you shouldn't do is trade him for the sake of hoping to lose a few more games.

What are the combined odds of:

Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
The Jazz not drafting a player in the 9-10 spot that is even in the same ballpark as the player they would have drafted in the 4th-5th spot

Probably pretty low.

I dont think HH point was ever "trade Kessler for the L's"

It was trade Kessler for some good stuff and also some L's

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[fishonjazz]

I mean you have to, right? The 2025 draft is so good.

And if the 2027 draft is looking historically good as well, and Cody Williams is looking like an emerging star, I think you have to ship his *** out as well.

I wouldn't say Kessler has looked like an emerging star in his 20 minutes per game off the bench behind a meh not even really center.

If Cody is looking like a star then you don't trade him. But that's not really what was being discussed.

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[MT Steve]

I simply wanted a guess at how many wins having Walker Kessler on the roster adds this year.

I think he'll be the difference between being around 28 wins vs around 24 wins. That win total will be around 4th/5th either way, most likely.

I dont think HH point was ever "trade Kessler for the L's"

It was trade Kessler for some good stuff and also some L's

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Yeah I know. I just think "getting more L's" should factor extremely little into the decision.

 

[MT Steve]

I wouldn't say Kessler has looked like an emerging star in his 20 minutes per game off the bench behind a meh not even really center.

If Cody is looking like a star then you don't trade him. But that's not really what was being discussed.

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I was being sarcastic, fish.

 

[fishonjazz]

Wait, so why do we have to trade Walker, a 3rd year player, then? Is 3rd year the cut-off for being too good so you have to trade?

Have to trade? Man, dudes really putting stuff in HH mouth that he isn't saying a lot.

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[homeytennis]

If we trade Lauri that means we can resign Luka, Yurt7.THT, Potter and Lewis. Sorry, I'll show myself out.

 

[fishonjazz]

Trade Walker for that 3.2% boost.

And what we get from the team that traded for Walker

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[MT Steve]

And what we get from the team that traded for Walker

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Yeah I already said if there's a good reason to trade Walker, then do it.

Don't lose a trade just for a 3.2% boost.

 

[fishonjazz]

If the Jazz are trying to lose, they will be playing plenty.

Like the last 2 years? Ya, no. Hardy don't tank.

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[fishonjazz]

Yeah, explains why all the young players got no burn post ASB last year once the Jazz decided they wanted to start losing.

KO and Simone got traded.


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[MT Steve]

Like the last 2 years? Ya, no. Hardy don't tank.

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Stop being obtuse.

The Jazz gave the rookies a ton of burn post-ASB last year. Lauri even played in a lot of those games - the Jazz went 1-12 in them.

Losing and giving the young guys a lot of time will not be an issue.