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ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

HermanG said:
Vegas accounts for anything no matter how speculative it is, if they think it affects standard fans betting behaviour.

Its also not based on simulation of results, its just expectation of how the action distributes. The line is set at the median.

So at the moment they think half the bets would go for 29 or more and half would go for 28 or less.
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I know that but it's based on the current roster. They are trying to get equal pay on both sides of the line. Cy is saying that they are hedging the wins lower because of a possible Lauri trade and if not it would be higher and that is definitely not the case.
 
I think another betting site has 27.5. Take the under all day. Free money.
 
In general I’d probably be partial to taking the under in most bets. Only takes one or two somewhat bad things to underperform. There’s like a 10% chance we trade Lauri baked in there but if we trade Lauri the under is a lock. Sexton Kessler get traded or hurt and you are gold. I think DA finally figures this out and we win around 23-26 games.
 
HermanG said:
Vegas accounts for anything no matter how speculative it is, if they think it affects standard fans betting behaviour.

Its also not based on simulation of results, its just expectation of how the action distributes. The line is set at the median.

So at the moment they think half the bets would go for 29 or more and half would go for 28 or less.
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Yup, and it's why the Lakers usually have a somewhat inflated line. There are a ton of Lakers homers who will drive up the line.
 
sip said:
I know that but it's based on the current roster. They are trying to get equal pay on both sides of the line. Cy is saying that they are hedging the wins lower because of a possible Lauri trade and if not it would be higher and that is definitely not the case.
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Yes, the line is lower because of the potential of a Lauri trade (and any other tanking trade since people are speculating the Jazz will tank). It's common sense. Dont pull a Kqwin and argue against things that are obvious just because you want to be a petulant child.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yes, the line is lower because of the potential of a Lauri trade (and any other tanking trade since people are speculating the Jazz will tank). It's common sense. Dont pull a Kqwin and argue against things that are obvious just because you want to be a petulant child.
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Nope. Just give it up.
 
sip said:
I know that but it's based on the current roster. They are trying to get equal pay on both sides of the line. Cy is saying that they are hedging the wins lower because of a possible Lauri trade and if not it would be higher and that is definitely not the case.
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Just think through what you said.

How do they get equal pay on both sides of the line? By putting the line in the middle of where they think people believe the Jazz will finish. A lot of people think the Jazz will trade Lauri. Follow that to the logical conclusion.
 
MT Steve said:
Just think through what you said.

How do they get equal pay on both sides of the line? By putting the line in the middle of where they think people believe the Jazz will finish. A lot of people think the Jazz will trade Lauri. Follow that to the logical conclusion.
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No, people will take large amounts of money and make a decision based on the roster and the rest of the NBA being completely static!

*Sarcasm*
 
MT Steve said:
Just think through what you said.

How do they get equal pay on both sides of the line? By putting the line in the middle of where they think people believe the Jazz will finish. A lot of people think the Jazz will trade Lauri. Follow that to the logical conclusion.
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You don't gamble do you? They set the line at what they believe is the correct win total and make adjustments as the money comes in on one side of the line or the other. They don't base that line on if a future trade may happen or not.
 
sip said:
You don't gamble do you? They set the line at what they believe is the correct win total and make adjustments as the money comes in on one side of the line or the other. They don't base that line on if a future trade may happen or not.
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God damn you are trying so hard to be ignorant it's impressive.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Everyone in this thread agrees with me bud. You know, people who have brains capable of critical thinking.
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It's a shame you aren't capable of critical thinking. Since you are so confident that this number has a possible Lauri trade baked in what do you think the over under should be with Lauri?
 
sip said:
It's a shame you aren't capable of critical thinking. Since you are so confident that this number has a possible Lauri trade baked in what do you think the over under should be with Lauri?
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So let's say you have 10,000 dollars to your name and you have to use that 10,000 dollars on bets. Would you really not factor in all possibilities (and the probabilities of those possibilities) and just make your bet based off the current static landscape of the NBA? Only stupid people would do that when making a futures bet. Are you stupid?

If Woj suddenly came out and said that the Jazz acquiring Lebron James is now a realistic possibility and could happen within the next two weeks, would that not affect the betting lines for their win total?

I understand you just want to argue because it's me, but use your brain when everyone here is telling you that you're wrong.

Side Note: It's reaffirming when someone you argued with on other topics proves themselves to be utter morons when talking about another topic.
 
sip said:
You don't gamble do you? They set the line at what they believe is the correct win total and make adjustments as the money comes in on one side of the line or the other. They don't base that line on if a future trade may happen or not.
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I guess this would be true in a world where 100% of people placing bets are also basing it entirely on the current roster without any regard to the possibility of Lauri being traded.

But we obviously don't live in that world, and the people setting the line know this.
 
MT Steve said:
I guess this would be true in a world where 100% of people placing bets are also basing it entirely on the current roster without any regard to the possibility of Lauri being traded.

But we obviously don't live in that world, and the people setting the line know this.
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The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple. Since you seem to think 28.5 is artificially low with the Lauri trade speculation where do you think it should be if we just move forward with our current roster.
 
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sip said:
The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple.
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Saint Cy of JFC said:
So let's say you have 10,000 dollars to your name and you have to use that 10,000 dollars on bets. Would you really not factor in all possibilities (and the probabilities of those possibilities) and just make your bet based off the current static landscape of the NBA? Only stupid people would do that when making a futures bet. Are you stupid?

If Woj suddenly came out and said that the Jazz acquiring Lebron James is now a realistic possibility and could happen within the next two weeks, would that not affect the betting lines for their win total?

I understand you just want to argue because it's me, but use your brain when everyone here is telling you that you're wrong.

Side Note: It's reaffirming when someone you argued with on other topics proves themselves to be utter morons when talking about another topic.
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Of course you won't answer the question. You just like to be dumbass. Based on our current roster what do you think the line should be? I think 28.5 is pretty generous while you believe that it is artifially low. By the way when their is serious speculation about a major trade the sportsbook will pull that team from the future odds until there is clarity. Prior bets are still locked in but no new bets will be made until a new line has been set.
 
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