ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

[KqWIN]

Take the under, with or without Lauri.

 

[MT Steve]

The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple.

Are you claiming that they completely disregard what they believe the public will do when they initially set betting lines?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Are you claiming that they completely disregard what they believe the public will do when they initially set betting lines?

Not to mention the companies who run betting sites now employ or sponsor both Woj and Shams....

 

[HermanG]

The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple. Since you seem to think 28.5 is artificially low with the Lauri trade speculation where do you think it should be if we just move forward with our current roster.

The sportsbooks dont give a rats *** about how many wins they think the team will actually get. All they do to make money is try and predict how people behave.

If they think a team wins 40 games but at 28.5 the bets go 50/50 on over and under then the line is set at 28.5.

Its free money for them regardless of what result turns out to be correct.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The sportsbooks dont give a rats *** about how many wins they think the team will actually get. All they do to make money is try and predict how people behave.

If they think a team wins 40 games but at 28.5 the bets go 50/50 on over and under then the line is set at 28.5.

Its free money for them regardless of what result turns out to be correct.

The amount of money/time/effort they put into their predicitive models on all sides of what impacts betting is probably insane. Plus like I said, they definitely have access to inside information the public doesnt.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

Sounds about right. I was thinking about 30-32 wins. But I won't bet on it,can easily go under.

 

[fishonjazz]

Yup, and it's why the Lakers usually have a somewhat inflated line. There are a ton of Lakers homers who will drive up the line.

But the line should be deflated because the AD injuries and LeBron age factors should be baked in

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

But the line should be deflated because the AD injuries and LeBron age factors should be baked in

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Everything is factored in.

 

[fishonjazz]

Just think through what you said.

How do they get equal pay on both sides of the line? By putting the line in the middle of where they think people believe the Jazz will finish. A lot of people think the Jazz will trade Lauri. Follow that to the logical conclusion.

I know that if placed a bet on how many games the jazz are going to win this season then I would place the bet with the belief that Lauri markennan will play for the jazz this season because he isn't getting traded.

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[fishonjazz]

Take the under, with or without Lauri.

But it's artificially set low. So that means if you think the jazz keep Lauri then you should definitely take the over since if Vegas knew for certain that Lauri was staying then they would have the jazz winning like 32 games or so and Vegas is really good at this stuff.

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[fishonjazz]

The sportsbooks dont give a rats *** about how many wins they think the team will actually get. All they do to make money is try and predict how people behave.

And don't you think that most people behave by betting using a current roster rather than an unknown roster that is less likely (quite unlikely in this case) to be the roster of the team they are betting on?

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[fishonjazz]

Everything is factored in.

So it is deflated rather than inflated like you stated

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[fishonjazz]

One way to know is if the jazz didn't trade Lauri then the roster will have to simply bake with him on it and therefore the win total line should rise by a number of games because no betters will be placing bets with the thought that Lauri won't be on the jazz anymore.

So it's around 28 games now right. If Lauri isn't traded and that jumps up to like 32 games then we will know the Lauri trade was baked in.

If it stays right around 28 then we will know that it wasn't baked in.

Easy peasy.

I'm betting that the line doesn't change much at all when everyone knows he is staying with the jazz.

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

So it is deflated rather than inflated like you stated

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The line is what it is.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

There's a massive inflection point that will change the line that is 12 days away. That is all we are saying. Everyone knows this and it will influence how people bet, so it in turn influenced how the the line was set.

If you feel confident Lauri isnt getting traded the under is riskier. If you feel confident he is getting traded and have disposable income, you should probably hammer the under.

I feel like I'm teaching toddlers how to gamble.

 

[fishonjazz]

The line is what it is.

That's what I think as well. I disagree with your take that it is inflated.
I think it is what it is.

If it is in fact inflated then you would definitely put money on the under for the Lakers every year.

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[fishonjazz]

There's a massive inflection point that will change the line that is 12 days away. That is all we are saying. Everyone knows this and it will influence how people bet, so it in turn influenced how the the line was set.

If you feel confident Lauri isnt getting traded the under is riskier. If you feel confident he is getting traded and have disposable income, you should probably hammer the under.

I feel like I'm teaching toddlers how to gamble.

I agree with your second paragraph.

I think your first paragraph will end up being incorrect. I think that in 12 days if Lauri is still with the jazz then that line won't be moving much at all.

If he is traded then I do expect to see a significant drop of the win total.

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

That's what I think as well. I disagree with your take that it is inflated.
I think it is what it is.

If it is in fact inflated then you would definitely put money on the under for the Lakers every year.

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Just because it's an inflated or deflated line doesnt guarantee an outcome.....

And I never said anything about the Jazz line being inflated or deflated. I'm just telling you the facts of the situation.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I agree with your second paragraph.

I think your first paragraph will end up being incorrect. I think that in 12 days if Lauri is still with the jazz then that line won't be moving much at all.

If he is traded then I do expect to see a significant drop of the win total.

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How can my first paragraph be incorrect when all I saw was the facts of the situation?

 

[fishonjazz]

Just because it's an inflated or deflated line doesnt guarantee an outcome.....

And I never said anything about the Jazz line being inflated or deflated. I'm just telling you the facts of the situation.

Ya you said the Lauri trade is baked in. If that is the case then obviously betters would be betting that the jazz would be worse than with Lauri which would cause the line to go down.


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