ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

[KqWIN]

 

[fishonjazz]

I think it would be a much different scenario if Lauri was already signed to a long term deal.

Then it would make sense for everyone for Lauri to be traded. Would make sense for Lauri because he would want to go somewhere to win. Would make sense for the jazz because they would have many more teams bidding on Lauri. Of course in this scenario he would have already been traded and the betting line would reflect that.

But since Lauri wants to get paid and therefore doesn't want to be traded and since the jazz only have a small amount of teams willing to pay big time assets for a possible 1 year rental therefore the jazz don't want to trade him I think that the betting line reflects this information as well.
I dont think any significant amount of bettors are placing bets on the jazz win total based off a hypothetical and unlikely and non existent jazz roster.
I think bets are being placed for the jazz win total based on the actual roster which is extremely likely to remain the same when the season starts (other than end of the bench scrubs)

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[KqWIN]

We won 31 games last season, have a hard time seeing us lose only two less games than last year even with no further moves. Some of the young guys will get better, but we're also going to be playing a lot more youth in general and are not going to be competing for 2/3 of the season.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

We won 31 games last season, have a hard time seeing us lose only two less games than last year even with no further moves. Some of the young guys will get better, but we're also going to be playing a lot more youth in general and are not going to be competing for 2/3 of the season.

True, but people forget how poorly we started the season last year. The majority of our wins happened during an ok December then a really hot January.

I could see this team having a good month or so and ruining the tank.

 

[HermanG]

And don't you think that most people behave by betting using a current roster rather than an unknown roster that is less likely (quite unlikely in this case) to be the roster of the team they are betting on?

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If I knew how to accurately predict motifs and behaviour of human beings I would probably be in the business myself.

FWiW, I think average $5 Joe either goes by gut feeling or looks at our last season record +- moves made in the offseason.

The big players probably go much deeper analyzing the direction of the organization and likely bet on us tanking (and thus making tanking moves to degrade our roster).

 

[fishonjazz]

If I knew how to accurately predict motifs and behaviour of human beings I would probably be in the business myself.

FWiW, I think average $5 Joe either goes by gut feeling or looks at our last season record +- moves made in the offseason.

The big players probably go much deeper analyzing the direction of the organization and likely bet on us tanking (and thus making tanking moves to degrade our roster).

You don't think those big players who go deeper and analyze things look at the fact that Lauri can get way more money by staying with the jazz, ainge is asking for the world in any trade, and the warriors are the only bidder who are bidding on a dude under contract for one season and come to the conclusion that Lauri won't be traded like the rest of us have?

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[HermanG]

You don't think those big players who go deeper and analyze things look at the fact that Lauri can get way more money by staying with the jazz, ainge is asking for the world in any trade, and the warriors are the only bidder who are bidding on a dude under contract for one season and come to the conclusion that Lauri won't be traded like the rest of us have?

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The fact that you have to argue this subject and that opinions here are divided serves as perfect evidence that the line should not reflect the team as is, but has some possible scenarios baked into it.. most of them being subtractive type.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

True, but people forget how poorly we started the season last year. The majority of our wins happened during an ok December then a really hot January.

I could see this team having a good month or so and ruining the tank.

Or like Lauri improves. Sexton improves and gets more consistent starter level minutes. Clarkson plays less and improves. They don't play Collins/Walker together at all. Keyonte takes a big step forward (very possible). Hendricks takes a minor step forward. Walker gets wildly more consistent with the little things.

The idea that the Jazz will be guaranteed bad (or the level of bad that will guarantee bottom 5) just doesn't seem to be the case when they have so many guys who should get better.

If Lauri is kept you kind of have to trade Sexton to have a shot at a bottom 5 record

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yeah, Cody Williams is a rookie and could play a lot of minutes, but Cody Williams doesn't strike me as the kind of rookie who is going to go out there and be awful.

If you play Collier/Filipowski a ton that might do the trick as they both have some glaring weaknesses that NBA teams will expose as rookies until they share them up

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Or like Lauri improves. Sexton improves and gets more consistent starter level minutes. Clarkson plays less and improves. They don't play Collins/Walker together at all. Keyonte takes a big step forward (very possible). Hendricks takes a minor step forward. Walker gets wildly more consistent with the little things.

The idea that the Jazz will be guaranteed bad (or the level of bad that will guarantee bottom 5) just doesn't seem to be the case when they have so many guys who should get better.

If Lauri is kept you kind of have to trade Sexton to have a shot at a bottom 5 record

When both Lauri and Kessler play it feels like our offense and defense has a shot to be good enough to win games.

The unknown is how far Hardy is willing to help the tank out. The FO will want him to prioritize, "development" over wins. Normally I would say no coach is going to jeopardize wins, but Hardy definitely got a little grimey at the end of the season.

 

[fishonjazz]

The fact that you have to argue this subject and that opinions here are divided serves as perfect evidence that the line should not reflect the team as is, but has some possible scenarios baked into it.. most of them being subtractive type.

Again, we will find out in a few weeks


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[Saint Cy of JFC]

The fact that you have to argue this subject and that opinions here are divided serves as perfect evidence that the line should not reflect the team as is, but has some possible scenarios baked into it.. most of them being subtractive type.

Fish is a brick wall, don't attempt

 

[fishonjazz]

Fish is a brick wall, don't attempt

Nah. We all agree that the betters are what set the line. I just think that the betters are smart and like to win. I think the betters believe that Lauri sticks with the jazz this season just like all the experts think as well and they are betting accordingly and I think that we will see the line remain mostly the same as it currently is when Lauri extends with the jazz and isn't eligible for trade.

I don't know why you think that take is outlandish. What is unreasonable about it?

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[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, Cody Williams is a rookie and could play a lot of minutes, but Cody Williams doesn't strike me as the kind of rookie who is going to go out there and be awful.

If you play Collier/Filipowski a ton that might do the trick as they both have some glaring weaknesses that NBA teams will expose as rookies until they share them up

I think Cody and Taylor can kinda blend in so that they don't hurt you and have things they can chip in here and there. Collier/Flip/Brice are going to have more potential to hurt us on court.

 

[sip]

Brother, sit this one out. That is not how win totals work at all.

Brother that is exactly how it works. The nice part is that in a few weeks we will know who is right and who is wrong.

 

[MT Steve]

Nah. We all agree that the betters are what set the line. I just think that the betters are smart and like to win. I think the betters believe that Lauri sticks with the jazz this season just like all the experts think as well and they are betting accordingly and I think that we will see the line remain mostly the same as it currently is when Lauri extends with the jazz and isn't eligible for trade.

I don't know why you think that take is outlandish. What is unreasonable about it?

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Hypothetical here, but if the messaging was different and if it seemed like there was a decent chance to people, including those that set the betting lines, that Lauri was going to be traded, do you think the line would have been set differently?

 

[sip]

True.
Like if the jazz were well known to be desperate to be rid of Lauri and was shopping him around to everyone for a low return (like due to salary cap issues etc) then I think Vegas would lower the line because betters would think that it was almost certain that Lauri was gone.



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If that was the case they wouldn't lower the line they would simply pull the line until further clarity is made. That is what happens when there seems to be legit fire to rumors because all Vegas cares about is setting a correct line to collect the vig. The last thing they want is to get lopsided on one side or the other.

 

[Jazz4ever]

28 wins seem super close. Rookies are generally terribly defensively and can fuel a tank pretty hard.

 

[KqWIN]

True, but people forget how poorly we started the season last year. The majority of our wins happened during an ok December then a really hot January.

I could see this team having a good month or so and ruining the tank.

It depends on what you mean by ruin the tank. If you mean ensuring a top 3 lotto position, yes. But if that was so important than we should be more open to trading Lauri. If you mean winning more than 29 games….I really don’t think so. Like I said, we won 31 games last year and that was while trying to win for 2/3 of the season with a better roster. We were 26-30 before we quit. I think the last third of the season will be similar, but the first two thirds will not be. Feels like we have at least a couple more losses than last year.

We can keep mentioning all the ways we actually win more than expected….they’re possible. But if we were to simulate this season 1000 times, I don’t think we’d be over 28 more times than not.

I don’t think Hardy is an unknown when it comes to tanking. We were the worst team in the entire league when we flipped the switch last season. He’s one of the few coaches that will openly admit that he isn’t trying to win games. He is proven when it comes to tanking.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Y'all we have two years in a row of the Jazz overachieving before the ASB and not tanking all the way.

They are probably a better team this year if you think Lauri/Sexton are legitimately talented and improving. And even moreso if you believe in the talents of Walker,Keyonte, and Hendricks getting better.