ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

[Elizah Huge]

Yep.
I dont think that happens.

If I am betting on something then I bet on the more likely thing because I want to win. Why would I bet on something that is unlikely to happen and is a total hypothetical and I didn't even know what the trade would look like?

I think the bets being made on the jazz season win total are being made by people betting with Lauri on the jazz and not the warriors

Also, the warriors total should be too high if folks are betting on their win total with Lauri on their roster so everyone should definitely bet the under on the warriors and over on the jazz. After all, what is the tone watch again (pretty low iirc)

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They have to account for the possibility. If you think he’s getting traded take the under on the Jazz and over on the Warriors.

They can’t put the line too high in case he actually is traded. They’d get crushed. If they came out with 31.5 or 32.5 everyone and their mom would be pounding the under.

28.5 is right in the middle where if you think he’s on the team you might take the over but it’s not a crazy low number it makes you think twice.

 

[MTS]

Yep.
I dont think that happens.

If I am betting on something then I bet on the more likely thing because I want to win. Why would I bet on something that is unlikely to happen and is a total hypothetical and I didn't even know what the trade would look like?

I think the bets being made on the jazz season win total are being made by people betting with Lauri on the jazz and not the warriors

Take a look around the internet: Many people disagree with you that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

I personally don't, but many do.

 

[fishonjazz]

They have to account for the possibility. If you think he’s getting traded take the under on the Jazz and over on the Warriors.

They can’t put the line too high in case he actually is traded. They’d get crushed. If they came out with 31.5 or 32.5 everyone and their mom would be pounding the under.

28.5 is right in the middle where if you think he’s on the team you might take the over but it’s not a crazy low number it makes you think twice.

Again. We will see if that line has a significant jump when Lauri isn't traded.
You and cy think it will. Sip and I don't think it will. We will see.

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[fishonjazz]

Take a look around the internet: Many people disagree with you that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

I personally don't, but many do.

I disagree with you that many people disagree with me that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

I think that an overwhelming majority of people think he stays with the jazz.

I think that most everyone knows that trades don't happen in late july/August much. I think everyone knows that ainge has a price that is too high for the warriors. There is just so much history to go off of.


I dont think hardly anyone feels confident that Lauri gets traded to the warriors this summer.
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[MTS]

I disagree with you that many people disagree with me that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

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That's fine.

You and sip are arguing two different things, by the way. Sip thinks that people who set lines fundamentally do not account for anything other than the current roster. You think that there is nothing to bake in because nobody believes Lauri will be traded.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You and cy think it will. Sip and I don't think it will. We will see.

Congratulations, you have stumbled upon what we have all been saying. Betting lines are based around many possibilities that may or may not happen and your view on those possibilities shapes how you view a bet and influences how you bet and Vegas attempts to understand all these complex factors and sets of people to create a line, a line that will be ever changing based on how people react to it and as things develop!

It's always funny when people who are so dumb on a topic will eventually talk themselves into a point that is right by accident.

 

[fishonjazz]

That's fine.

You and sip are arguing two different things, by the way. Sip thinks that people who set lines fundamentally do not account for anything other than the current roster. You think that there is nothing to bake in because nobody believes Lauri will be traded.

True.
Like if the jazz were well known to be desperate to be rid of Lauri and was shopping him around to everyone for a low return (like due to salary cap issues etc) then I think Vegas would lower the line because betters would think that it was almost certain that Lauri was gone.



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[fishonjazz]

Congratulations, you have stumbled upon what we have all been saying. Betting lines are based around many possibilities that may or may not happen and your view on those possibilities shapes how you view a bet and influences how you bet and Vegas attempts to understand all these complex factors and sets of people to create a line, a line that will be ever changing based on how people react to it and as things develop!

It's always funny when people who are so dumb on a topic will eventually talk themselves into a point that is right by accident.

Been saying this all along. I dont think the line has anything to do with Lauri being in an extremely unlikely trade rumor.
Therefore I think it will remain very similar to what it currently is after Lauri is re-signed with the jazz long term.
If he is in fact traded then I think we see a big drop in the line.
We will see who is correct.


One thing is for sure, if the line jumps by 3 or 4 games after the jazz extend Lauri and you point it out to me I will 100% bow down and admit I was wrong.

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[KqWIN]

 

[fishonjazz]

I think it would be a much different scenario if Lauri was already signed to a long term deal.

Then it would make sense for everyone for Lauri to be traded. Would make sense for Lauri because he would want to go somewhere to win. Would make sense for the jazz because they would have many more teams bidding on Lauri. Of course in this scenario he would have already been traded and the betting line would reflect that.

But since Lauri wants to get paid and therefore doesn't want to be traded and since the jazz only have a small amount of teams willing to pay big time assets for a possible 1 year rental therefore the jazz don't want to trade him I think that the betting line reflects this information as well.
I dont think any significant amount of bettors are placing bets on the jazz win total based off a hypothetical and unlikely and non existent jazz roster.
I think bets are being placed for the jazz win total based on the actual roster which is extremely likely to remain the same when the season starts (other than end of the bench scrubs)

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[KqWIN]

We won 31 games last season, have a hard time seeing us lose only two less games than last year even with no further moves. Some of the young guys will get better, but we're also going to be playing a lot more youth in general and are not going to be competing for 2/3 of the season.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

We won 31 games last season, have a hard time seeing us lose only two less games than last year even with no further moves. Some of the young guys will get better, but we're also going to be playing a lot more youth in general and are not going to be competing for 2/3 of the season.

True, but people forget how poorly we started the season last year. The majority of our wins happened during an ok December then a really hot January.

I could see this team having a good month or so and ruining the tank.