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ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

KqWIN said:
We don’t have the good vets to trade this time, which is why I expect to be worse this year than previous years. Whenever someone says something along the lines of “Clarkson and Collins are going to ruin the tank”, I see that as evidence as to why we’re going to be worse than previous years. Vets do indeed win you games but we have significantly less of those guys.

Are we bad enough to get the number one lotto position? Probably not, and we could never expect that without trading Lauri. But are we bad enough to be two games worse than last year? I certainly think so.
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I think us overperforming has largely been about Hardy finding good roles, chemistry and rotations to maximize the teams performance.

If he does it again we may have a slightly worse record after 60 games but on the other hand the post DL tank wont be as effective either.

There is a chance this team is underestimated 3rd year in a row.
 
Quite a few years ago I used to pay for everything with cash. Then I would save my change in a huge jar. After saving my change for about 5 years I counted it and had over $500.

Well the jazz over under for wins was set at something like 42.5 (pretty sure but not 100%)
I decided to bet all my change on the over. Fast forward. Jazz have 2 games left. They are sitting on 42 wins. They are about to play the Mavs. My brother has tickets to this game on like the 7th row (closest I had ever been was like row 24)

So I go to the game in the best seats of my life with a chance to have about $1000 coming my way. Burks had been a little banged up and was questionable to play.

Game starts and Burks is in the tunnel on an exercise bike. He never did play.
Game is close throughout the first half and then gobert gets hurt and has to leave the game. He never returns. Jazz lose the game (there was actually a picture of me in the crowd from an online news story with me looking all disappointed).

I think they had to win the last 2 games to make the playoffs or something and that loss eliminated them so they didn't even try to win their final game (I could be wrong about this but I remember the final game didn't matter. Might have even been a situation where losing the final game helped their draft pick) so the last game was also a loss.

Lost my bet by half a game. SMD

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I'm seeing smoke about the jazz trading for Brandon Ingram to add to Lauri and Sexton

This 28.5 line should be on the rise.....

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fishonjazz said:
I'm seeing smoke about the jazz trading for Brandon Ingram to add to Lauri and Sexton

This 28.5 line should be on the rise.....

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Zach Lowe said it on a podcast and kind of immediately dismissed it. That's not carrying much weight.

And the over is -105 vs -125 for the under, so the over is considered the safer bet currently.

Try not to be a total nitwit about this. Loosey rumors aren't the same as the GSW/Lauri constant media attention
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Zach Lowe said it on a podcast and kind of immediately dismissed it. That's not carrying much weight.

And the over is -105 vs -125 for the under, so the over is considered the safer bet currently.

Try not to be a total nitwit about this. Loosey rumors aren't the same as the GSW/Lauri constant media attention
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Exactly. The Lauri trade to Golden State doesn't carry any weight either if you pay attention to the details (Lauri doesn't want to be traded. Warriors don't want to pay the extremely high asking price for the one year rental etc)

Lauri isn't getting traded.
Though reading posts in the thread you started about Ingram and Leonard I'm seeing people post that us getting Leonard is more likely to happen than Lauri getting traded.

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fishonjazz said:
I'm seeing smoke about the jazz trading for Brandon Ingram to add to Lauri and Sexton

This 28.5 line should be on the rise.....

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
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I thought your schtick on this was that Lauri trade was not baked in the odds because it is so unlikely.

Now it looks like you are arguing the same point as @sip about whether or not hypotheticals are included.
 
HermanG said:
I thought your schtick on this was that Lauri trade was not baked in the odds because it is so unlikely.
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Exactly. I have always said that betters move the line. Betters got the line at 28.5 because they were betting on Lauri being on the jazz roster.

If hypothetical trades like the Lauri trade cause betters to bet as if the jazz will be worse due to Lauri being traded like has been argued and that is what caused the line to be 28.5 then the Ingram trade rumor will cause betters to bet the over since they would be betting on Ingram possibly being on the jazz and the win total would go up.

I believe that 28.5 line won't move much at all due to either of these rumors because people bet on what is most likely to happen rather than things that are unlikely to happen.


Basically if the hypothetical is likely to happen then I think it's baked in. If it's unlikely to happen then it's not.

Just seems logical to me and makes sense


If Lauri was traded tomorrow then I would expect the over under to go down to like 24 or 25 games.

If he never gets traded (and we don't improve the roster) then I expect it to remain very close to what it currently is.

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Handlogten's Heros said:
In general I’d probably be partial to taking the under in most bets. Only takes one or two somewhat bad things to underperform. There’s like a 10% chance we trade Lauri baked in there but if we trade Lauri the under is a lock. Sexton Kessler get traded or hurt and you are gold. I think DA finally figures this out and we win around 23-26 games.
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Yep. Lines are generally a hair higher than they should be too because people bet the over and the favorites more often than they bet the under and the dog.
 
What is the over under after the Lauri extension? Surely it took a decent sized leap up right?

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fishonjazz said:
Quite a few years ago I used to pay for everything with cash. Then I would save my change in a huge jar. After saving my change for about 5 years I counted it and had over $500.

Well the jazz over under for wins was set at something like 42.5 (pretty sure but not 100%)
I decided to bet all my change on the over. Fast forward. Jazz have 2 games left. They are sitting on 42 wins. They are about to play the Mavs. My brother has tickets to this game on like the 7th row (closest I had ever been was like row 24)

So I go to the game in the best seats of my life with a chance to have about $1000 coming my way. Burks had been a little banged up and was questionable to play.

Game starts and Burks is in the tunnel on an exercise bike. He never did play.
Game is close throughout the first half and then gobert gets hurt and has to leave the game. He never returns. Jazz lose the game (there was actually a picture of me in the crowd from an online news story with me looking all disappointed).

I think they had to win the last 2 games to make the playoffs or something and that loss eliminated them so they didn't even try to win their final game (I could be wrong about this but I remember the final game didn't matter. Might have even been a situation where losing the final game helped their draft pick) so the last game was also a loss.

Lost my bet by half a game. SMD

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk
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Ouch. The last game had to be the Kobe-retirement game IIRC?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
That's not how it works moron... Things take time.
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How much time? We can revisit this at a time of your choosing. I feel confident that the win total doesn't go up much at all.
 
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