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ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

MT Steve said:
I guess this would be true in a world where 100% of people placing bets are also basing it entirely on the current roster without any regard to the possibility of Lauri being traded.

But we obviously don't live in that world, and the people setting the line know this.
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The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple. Since you seem to think 28.5 is artificially low with the Lauri trade speculation where do you think it should be if we just move forward with our current roster.
 
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sip said:
The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple.
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Saint Cy of JFC said:
So let's say you have 10,000 dollars to your name and you have to use that 10,000 dollars on bets. Would you really not factor in all possibilities (and the probabilities of those possibilities) and just make your bet based off the current static landscape of the NBA? Only stupid people would do that when making a futures bet. Are you stupid?

If Woj suddenly came out and said that the Jazz acquiring Lebron James is now a realistic possibility and could happen within the next two weeks, would that not affect the betting lines for their win total?

I understand you just want to argue because it's me, but use your brain when everyone here is telling you that you're wrong.

Side Note: It's reaffirming when someone you argued with on other topics proves themselves to be utter morons when talking about another topic.
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Of course you won't answer the question. You just like to be dumbass. Based on our current roster what do you think the line should be? I think 28.5 is pretty generous while you believe that it is artifially low. By the way when their is serious speculation about a major trade the sportsbook will pull that team from the future odds until there is clarity. Prior bets are still locked in but no new bets will be made until a new line has been set.
 
sip said:
The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple.
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Are you claiming that they completely disregard what they believe the public will do when they initially set betting lines?
 
MT Steve said:
Are you claiming that they completely disregard what they believe the public will do when they initially set betting lines?
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Not to mention the companies who run betting sites now employ or sponsor both Woj and Shams....
 
sip said:
The sportsbook sets the original line entirely based on roster and how competitive they believe the team will be. Then adjustments are made as money flows in on one side or the other. That is how sportsbetting works. Pretty simple. Since you seem to think 28.5 is artificially low with the Lauri trade speculation where do you think it should be if we just move forward with our current roster.
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The sportsbooks dont give a rats *** about how many wins they think the team will actually get. All they do to make money is try and predict how people behave.

If they think a team wins 40 games but at 28.5 the bets go 50/50 on over and under then the line is set at 28.5.

Its free money for them regardless of what result turns out to be correct.
 
HermanG said:
The sportsbooks dont give a rats *** about how many wins they think the team will actually get. All they do to make money is try and predict how people behave.

If they think a team wins 40 games but at 28.5 the bets go 50/50 on over and under then the line is set at 28.5.

Its free money for them regardless of what result turns out to be correct.
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The amount of money/time/effort they put into their predicitive models on all sides of what impacts betting is probably insane. Plus like I said, they definitely have access to inside information the public doesnt.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yup, and it's why the Lakers usually have a somewhat inflated line. There are a ton of Lakers homers who will drive up the line.
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But the line should be deflated because the AD injuries and LeBron age factors should be baked in

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