ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

[fishonjazz]

Just think through what you said.

How do they get equal pay on both sides of the line? By putting the line in the middle of where they think people believe the Jazz will finish. A lot of people think the Jazz will trade Lauri. Follow that to the logical conclusion.

I know that if placed a bet on how many games the jazz are going to win this season then I would place the bet with the belief that Lauri markennan will play for the jazz this season because he isn't getting traded.

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[fishonjazz]

Take the under, with or without Lauri.

But it's artificially set low. So that means if you think the jazz keep Lauri then you should definitely take the over since if Vegas knew for certain that Lauri was staying then they would have the jazz winning like 32 games or so and Vegas is really good at this stuff.

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[fishonjazz]

The sportsbooks dont give a rats *** about how many wins they think the team will actually get. All they do to make money is try and predict how people behave.

And don't you think that most people behave by betting using a current roster rather than an unknown roster that is less likely (quite unlikely in this case) to be the roster of the team they are betting on?

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[fishonjazz]

Everything is factored in.

So it is deflated rather than inflated like you stated

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[fishonjazz]

One way to know is if the jazz didn't trade Lauri then the roster will have to simply bake with him on it and therefore the win total line should rise by a number of games because no betters will be placing bets with the thought that Lauri won't be on the jazz anymore.

So it's around 28 games now right. If Lauri isn't traded and that jumps up to like 32 games then we will know the Lauri trade was baked in.

If it stays right around 28 then we will know that it wasn't baked in.

Easy peasy.

I'm betting that the line doesn't change much at all when everyone knows he is staying with the jazz.

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

So it is deflated rather than inflated like you stated

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The line is what it is.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

There's a massive inflection point that will change the line that is 12 days away. That is all we are saying. Everyone knows this and it will influence how people bet, so it in turn influenced how the the line was set.

If you feel confident Lauri isnt getting traded the under is riskier. If you feel confident he is getting traded and have disposable income, you should probably hammer the under.

I feel like I'm teaching toddlers how to gamble.

 

[fishonjazz]

The line is what it is.

That's what I think as well. I disagree with your take that it is inflated.
I think it is what it is.

If it is in fact inflated then you would definitely put money on the under for the Lakers every year.

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[fishonjazz]

There's a massive inflection point that will change the line that is 12 days away. That is all we are saying. Everyone knows this and it will influence how people bet, so it in turn influenced how the the line was set.

If you feel confident Lauri isnt getting traded the under is riskier. If you feel confident he is getting traded and have disposable income, you should probably hammer the under.

I feel like I'm teaching toddlers how to gamble.

I agree with your second paragraph.

I think your first paragraph will end up being incorrect. I think that in 12 days if Lauri is still with the jazz then that line won't be moving much at all.

If he is traded then I do expect to see a significant drop of the win total.

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

That's what I think as well. I disagree with your take that it is inflated.
I think it is what it is.

If it is in fact inflated then you would definitely put money on the under for the Lakers every year.

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Just because it's an inflated or deflated line doesnt guarantee an outcome.....

And I never said anything about the Jazz line being inflated or deflated. I'm just telling you the facts of the situation.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I agree with your second paragraph.

I think your first paragraph will end up being incorrect. I think that in 12 days if Lauri is still with the jazz then that line won't be moving much at all.

If he is traded then I do expect to see a significant drop of the win total.

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How can my first paragraph be incorrect when all I saw was the facts of the situation?

 

[fishonjazz]

Just because it's an inflated or deflated line doesnt guarantee an outcome.....

And I never said anything about the Jazz line being inflated or deflated. I'm just telling you the facts of the situation.

Ya you said the Lauri trade is baked in. If that is the case then obviously betters would be betting that the jazz would be worse than with Lauri which would cause the line to go down.


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