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2024-2025 Tank Race

Stupid Minny playing actual defense. The Lakers have lost 4 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 7 so it wasn't a terribly convincing win for the Wolves. Still, Ant whining to the media got them back to 10 / 10.
 
Dunks and threes (great site btw) does some predictions. Injuries are factored in, but it's not too rigorous in that area. Here are the predicted rankings:

1. WAS - 19.1
2. UTA - 23.0
3. NOP - 26.1
4. POR - 28.0
5. TOR - 30.3
6. CHA - 30.4
7. DET - 31.9
8. CHI - 32.8
9. BKN - 33.1
10. PHI - 35.3

Bonus - T-Wolves with 16.8% chance of missing play in, 44.8% chance of missing top 8. Currently projected to be 17th in draft position.
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
Stupid Minny playing actual defense. The Lakers have lost 4 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 7 so it wasn't a terribly convincing win for the Wolves. Still, Ant whining to the media got them back to 10 / 10.
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They won by 30... How much convincing a win can you get?

yeah, it was probably a schedule loss for the Lakers. Long travel B2B, but still a dominant win.
 
I think it's a damn near guarantee the Jazz are tanking for at least one more year. Currently Walker Kessler is the only surefire starter from the last 3 rookie hauls. Given how far the young players are away, without showing much potential to even make them viable trade pieces, I wouldnt be shocked if Lauri gets traded in 2025 off-season.

Keyonte cant play defense to save his life. Taylor Hendricks will struggle to ever reach his potential (and I'm not sure the potential was ever there) given his catastrophic injury. Williams looks like Jarret Culver 2.0. Filipowski, while very talented, is probably more of a 3rd big. Collier looks like a backup guard given his broken jumper. Brice Sensabaugh looks like an offensive talent, but not sure he's good enough at anything else.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
New ORleans showing signs of life
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My dude. They have lost 15 out of 16 and lost by double digits to a mid Atlanta team that shot 26% from 3 last night. They ded dead.

Their next 10 are all against playoff teams too. They may get a couple easy games with the NBA cup games get added in the next week or whatever (I bet we end up playing them in an epic tank showdown).

They are so cooked.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
My dude. They have lost 15 out of 16 and lost by double digits to a mid Atlanta team that shot 26% from 3 last night. They ded dead.

Their next 10 are all against playoff teams too. They may get a couple easy games with the NBA cup games get added in the next week or whatever (I bet we end up playing them in an epic tank showdown).

They are so cooked.
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They were up by double digits when I posted that.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
They were up by double digits when I posted that.
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every team goes up double digits in the NBA. Pels are firmly a tank team. Ingram gets moved. Zion gets managed even if he's healthy. The rest of the roster if fine but they won't win much until january and will be like 10+ games out of the play in.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I think it's a damn near guarantee the Jazz are tanking for at least one more year. Currently Walker Kessler is the only surefire starter from the last 3 rookie hauls. Given how far the young players are away, without showing much potential to even make them viable trade pieces, I wouldnt be shocked if Lauri gets traded in 2025 off-season.

Keyonte cant play defense to save his life. Taylor Hendricks will struggle to ever reach his potential (and I'm not sure the potential was ever there) given his catastrophic injury. Williams looks like Jarret Culver 2.0. Filipowski, while very talented, is probably more of a 3rd big. Collier looks like a backup guard given his broken jumper. Brice Sensabaugh looks like an offensive talent, but not sure he's good enough at anything else.
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Yeah, the top 3 of 2026 being so good and having legitimate Utah connections (with AJ playing HS ball in Utah and maybe playing college at BYU while Cam is Boozer's son) and the team being so bad basically guarantees another tank unless something really weird happens.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I think it's a damn near guarantee the Jazz are tanking for at least one more year. Currently Walker Kessler is the only surefire starter from the last 3 rookie hauls. Given how far the young players are away, without showing much potential to even make them viable trade pieces, I wouldnt be shocked if Lauri gets traded in 2025 off-season.

Keyonte cant play defense to save his life. Taylor Hendricks will struggle to ever reach his potential (and I'm not sure the potential was ever there) given his catastrophic injury. Williams looks like Jarret Culver 2.0. Filipowski, while very talented, is probably more of a 3rd big. Collier looks like a backup guard given his broken jumper. Brice Sensabaugh looks like an offensive talent, but not sure he's good enough at anything else.
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I've been saying we will be tanking next year for awhile now, but the stuff about our young guys is very sad. I'm currently the lowest on our young guys as I've ever been.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I've been saying we will be tanking next year for awhile now, but the stuff about our young guys is very sad. I'm currently the lowest on our young guys as I've ever been.
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I think so. When I listened to the Pelicans pod the other day Shamit seemed to indicate Danny is more pro-tank and pro-trade Lauri than Ryan was. Who knows how good his source was but he was the guy that kinda broke the Ingram Utah trade talk stuff.

It makes sense as 2026 is shaping up to be an amazing draft. It is also the final year of the pick with owe OKC. I just hope they can stay patient. The pause in 2023 before going full scorched earth will make this feel like an eternal rebuild. And if we don't get lotto luck next year or this year... Jebus it will be pretty dark stuff.

I think if they land Cooper they consider a win-now type move if it fits long term vision as well. If they land 4th/5th I can see them hitting the button and moving Lauri for another top 10 pick and other stuff as the timeline starts to get more murky and the ceiling starts to fall a bit. If they somehow land cooper while keeping Lauri, Walker, Collins, Sexton... I can see them making some moves to hit the gas.

In short its all fluid right now and the young players are adding to that uncertainty.
 
I think the efficacy of tanking is highly overrated, especially in the online/hardcore fan community. Having said that, the Jazz don't really have an alternative at this point. If the Jazz had more actual NBA players and/or their young players showed more signs of life they could take a path besides tanking in 2026. But the Jazz have so little on their roster no other plan besides tanking is realistic. You can't just snap your fingers and become a playoff team, especially in the west. The Jazz are so far away from even being in play in zone. We would need "that guy" and significant depth upgrades just to compete for the play in.

The only directional decision to be made next summer is the same one as this summer, tank+Lauri or mega tank. Fortunately or unfortunately the results are that different between the two choices.
 
KqWIN said:
I think the efficacy of tanking is highly overrated, especially in the online/hardcore fan community. Having said that, the Jazz don't really have an alternative at this point. If the Jazz had more actual NBA players and/or their young players showed more signs of life they could take a path besides tanking in 2026. But the Jazz have so little on their roster no other plan besides tanking is realistic. You can't just snap your fingers and become a playoff team, especially in the west. The Jazz are so far away from even being in play in zone. We would need "that guy" and significant depth upgrades just to compete for the play in.

The only directional decision to be made next summer is the same one as this summer, tank+Lauri or mega tank. Fortunately or unfortunately the results are that different between the two choices.
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At this point I’m just hoping anyone besides Walker is good enough to make a 2nd contract. I’m not sold on Keyonte. I think Flip will make it but I don’t think he’s a starter.

The rest? Woof. I guess there’s free agency for depth.
 
KqWIN said:
I think the efficacy of tanking is highly overrated, especially in the online/hardcore fan community. Having said that, the Jazz don't really have an alternative at this point. If the Jazz had more actual NBA players and/or their young players showed more signs of life they could take a path besides tanking in 2026. But the Jazz have so little on their roster no other plan besides tanking is realistic. You can't just snap your fingers and become a playoff team, especially in the west. The Jazz are so far away from even being in play in zone. We would need "that guy" and significant depth upgrades just to compete for the play in.

The only directional decision to be made next summer is the same one as this summer, tank+Lauri or mega tank. Fortunately or unfortunately the results are that different between the two choices.
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Ehh... looking at the on/off stuff. If you took Key, Cody, and Brice and replace their minutes with competent NBA/good nba players. Say they went and traded for Cam Johnson and signed Tyus Jones. Sprinkle in more Juzang. I think they get close to .500 with decent health luck.

That is not the goal though.

The last couple years the half tank seems to have fallen flat. Part of that is just bad luck with Taylor (I think he's a solid prospect but that will disrupt his career big time) and also not having an Atlanta/houston bump up to the top 4. Any foundational pieces we have found the last couple years will be helpful but the runway looks much longer in what is now our first full tank year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Ehh... looking at the on/off stuff. If you took Key, Cody, and Brice and replace their minutes with competent NBA/good nba players. Say they went and traded for Cam Johnson and signed Tyus Jones. Sprinkle in more Juzang. I think they get close to .500 with decent health luck.

That is not the goal though.

The last couple years the half tank seems to have fallen flat. Part of that is just bad luck with Taylor (I think he's a solid prospect but that will disrupt his career big time) and also not having an Atlanta/houston bump up to the top 4. Any foundational pieces we have found the last couple years will be helpful but the runway looks much longer in what is now our first full tank year.
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BUT... One amazing draft through luck or smarts and things can flip around pretty fast.

I'm trying not to get too depressed here... let me have the glimmer of hope.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
BUT... One amazing draft through luck or smarts and things can flip around pretty fast.

I'm trying not to get too depressed here... let me have the glimmer of hope.
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We're all in Jazzfanz therapy at the moment. Let's hug it out.

Everyone was super down on Kessler last year and now he looks great. All of our guys are super young, and have lots of time to show potential. We'll get some more glimmers of hope, just don't watch the GLeague, lol.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Ehh... looking at the on/off stuff. If you took Key, Cody, and Brice and replace their minutes with competent NBA/good nba players. Say they went and traded for Cam Johnson and signed Tyus Jones. Sprinkle in more Juzang. I think they get close to .500 with decent health luck.

That is not the goal though.

The last couple years the half tank seems to have fallen flat. Part of that is just bad luck with Taylor (I think he's a solid prospect but that will disrupt his career big time) and also not having an Atlanta/houston bump up to the top 4. Any foundational pieces we have found the last couple years will be helpful but the runway looks much longer in what is now our first full tank year.
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Close to .500 probably doesn't get you into the play in for the west. You need to be well above .500 and you still might not make it. I get it, we were mid for like half a season two times in a row. But just look at the teams that are actually in that race for the play in, I don't think we're a Cam Johnson and Tyus Jones away.

To your point, replacing Key with Tyus would be a superstar like impact on paper. So yeah, if we gave up on the majority of our young guys, gave up on development, and got some actual real players we could sniff the play in.
 
KqWIN said:
Close to .500 probably doesn't get you into the play in for the west. You need to be well above .500 and you still might not make it. I get it, we were mid for like half a season two times in a row. But just look at the teams that are actually in that race for the play in, I don't think we're a Cam Johnson and Tyus Jones away.

To your point, replacing Key with Tyus would be a superstar like impact on paper. So yeah, if we gave up on the majority of our young guys, gave up on development, and got some actual real players we could sniff the play in.
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I don't disagree with anything here. I just think its funny that if we tried a little bit we might be in the same spot the Kings are lol. Some of these teams trying so hard and the results are mid right now. I'd rather be where we are (for now).
 
SoberasHotRod said:
We're all in Jazzfanz therapy at the moment. Let's hug it out.

Everyone was super down on Kessler last year and now he looks great. All of our guys are super young, and have lots of time to show potential. We'll get some more glimmers of hope, just don't watch the GLeague, lol.
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I will not be watching the G League. I will maybe watch a highlights package if he has a good game.

I think there are some glimmers with Collier, Brice, Key, Flip but don't see star potential there. At this point we probably need to lean into Key's strengths rather than trying to make him a point guard. If anything it will improve his numbers and help us to sell another team on his potential to be the great one. If we land Harper in the draft maybe Lisan Al Gaib is traded to the harkonnens or whatever the hell they are.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I will not be watching the G League. I will maybe watch a highlights package if he has a good game.

I think there are some glimmers with Collier, Brice, Key, Flip but don't see star potential there. At this point we probably need to lean into Key's strengths rather than trying to make him a point guard. If anything it will improve his numbers and help us to sell another team on his potential to be the great one. If we land Harper in the draft maybe Lisan Al Gaib is traded to the harkonnens or whatever the hell they are.
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At this point I'm pretty much out on Keyonte being a legitimate rotation player on a good team. Too many holes, too much crappy body language. For the role that Key might fill on a good team, I think Sexton is twice the player.

Time to pump and dump.
 
NUMBERICA said:
At this point I'm pretty much out on Keyonte being a legitimate rotation player on a good team. Too many holes, too much crappy body language. For the role that Key might fill on a good team, I think Sexton is twice the player.

Time to pump and dump.
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I think he is most likely a bench guard on a good team. I think there is enough there. I think we just overloaded him a bit making his efficiency look trashy. Having one setup guy I think would change things for a few of these guys. I think you have to pump but don't have to dump... but at this point or some point soon... pretending he is a pg is not helpful for development.
 
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