The Dark Days

HadAnEffectHere said:

The Jazz probably are a playoff team if they signed Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks over the last two summers (simply because their guard play is so catastrophic).

The Jazz were obviously aiming for higher than that, but it's starting to go sideways.

Click to expand...

Play in team maybe. Playoffs... not likely. So if we want to trade "Dark Days" for "slightly less Dark Days but still kinda frustrating" then fine. But we can't act like we would have been a 3-6 seed forever without extreme luck... luck we were still eligible for by trading for additional picks... and opportunities that would have been lost by conveying a pick to OKC. The last part not directed at you per se. We can still do that (just like the Rockets did) and declare the rebuild a success I suppose.

I can tolerate dark days if the light at the end of the tunnel is a little brighter (this doesn't mean title or bust either... landing a star in the draft is the biggest factor in long term playoff contention type success too).

MT Steve said:

Philly was one of the most successful examples of a team that did an all-out tank.

Click to expand...

SAx2/OKCx2/Orlando are additional successful teams. Many teams that others point at to show that tanking doesn't work were actually just teams being bad while trying to not be bad. There are failures of course.

No strategy is foolproof but I don't get folks that scoff at tanking when its maybe the most successful team building route for long term success. I mean Brooklyn had one of the most successful trade/FA rebuilds and said... eff that we are going to do it the other way.

Handlogten's Heros said:

SAx2/OKCx2/Orlando are additional successful teams. Many teams that others point at to show that tanking doesn't work were actually just teams being bad while trying to not be bad. There are failures of course.

No strategy is foolproof but I don't get folks that scoff at tanking when its maybe the most successful team building route for long term success. I mean Brooklyn had one of the most successful trade/FA rebuilds and said... eff that we are going to do it the other way.

Click to expand...

This is unbelievably false.

To an insane level, you are tunneling on the <5% of instances that were successes and ignoring all of the failures. The fact that you're so starving for successful examples that you have to cite Orlando is telling. Orlando was terrible for 15 straight years, despite during that time having a 6-year stretch with picks 2/4/5/11/6/6. And that was before the NBA flattened the lottery odds.

Nate505 said:

Between how horrible this team is, and how horrible the modern "let's chuck 40 3s a game" NBA style is, it's really come close to killing my interest in the Jazz and the NBA in general.

I'll probably never stop following them. I've been watching them for 30+ years and all, but I can't make it through any games this year. It's just not a good use of time.

Click to expand...

My feelings exactly. I definitely can't watch NBA basketball if it's not the Jazz. They style today just isn't appealing to me.

I remember watching basketball as a teenager in the late 90s and getting excited when someone hit a 3-pointer. Now when Keyonte hits one I'm left wondering if he can hit 33% of them for the game.

MT Steve said:

This is unbelievably false.

To an insane level, you are tunneling on the <5% of instances that were successes and ignoring all of the failures. The fact that you're so starving for successful examples that you have to cite Orlando is telling. Orlando was terrible for 15 straight years, despite during that time having a 6-year stretch with picks 2/4/5/11/6/6. And that was before the NBA flattened the lottery odds.

Click to expand...

Its not... and I very clearly stated "there are failures of course". I'm not ignoring failures. "insane" and "unbelievably false" GTFOH. I was simply stating a few of the other big (bigger?) successes than Philly. I'm not starving for successes... there are many other items you can point to without having to reach too far, but anything outside of the Philly method is considered "not tanking" by anti-tankers and when teams like Orlando struggle for 15 years anti-tankers point to them as tankers when they weren't.

Just take Orlando. When did they start to tank (trade off their stars) and when did they just suck? From 2014-2015 season to about the 2019-2020 season they weren't tanking. They were trying a middle build strategy and made the playoffs a handful of times but also just weren't very good. Say what you want but tanking wasn't their strategy. They didn't get lotto luck, they missed on some mid round picks and top 10 picks. Prior to that they tanked a couple years and end up with Gordon/Oladipo/Isaac. Just didn't hit BIG. They also move Oladipo and Sabonis (that 11th pick you mentioned) to get Serg Ibaka, not a tanking move btw, so while Orlando ended up being really mid/sucking it wasn't even because of their bad luck. It was because they tried to hit the accelerator and make a trade. They moved TWO all stars for Serge Ibaka. Tanking does not overcome incompetence... it is not a magic elixir. But lets just call that a tanking failure anyway and ignore the autopsy. They go through a period of mid before moving Fournier and Vuc in a clear rebuild and tank move. They get picks (one becomes Franz) and Wendell Carter. The poor record yields Suggs. The following year they strike gold and get Paolo.

So two tank attempts in that time... one failure (kind of) and one success. No strategy is perfect or foolproof.

You still have not answered the very basic question... given our situation... what is your super amazing alternative?

As I've said before, many armchair GM types love and advocate full-on, scorched-earth tanking because it makes them feel superior, like they're playing emotionless 4D chess – they've evolved away from fandom into expertise.

They look down on the hordes of simple-minded basic fans who just want to see good basketball and cheer for as many wins as possible. "They don't see the big picture!!"

David Hume said:

Did you not watch the 1988 playoffs, when we took the eventual champs, the Lakers, to 7 games in the playoffs? No I did not go back and check their offensive efficiency numbers, but if memory serves, they performed well.

Click to expand...

That's funny because I went, as a 4 yr old to the Jazz v Lakers 1988 Christmas game

Tremendous Upside said:

As I've said before, many armchair GM types love and advocate full-on, scorched-earth tanking because it makes them feel superior, like they're playing emotionless 4D chess – they've evolved away from fandom into expertise.

They look down on the hordes of simple-minded basic fans who just want to see good basketball and cheer for as many wins as possible. "They don't see the big picture!!"

Click to expand...

And those that fight against it being a valid method ignore that even if you try to be good sometimes you have to go through a period of being the 6th-10th worst team in the league and need an extremely lucky break to move ahead of that. The fact of the matter is we and others have much less control than we think and you have to play the best odds to get lucky.

Put it this way... there is no method of building that is able to withstand bad luck and there is no method of building that can have sustained success without some good luck.

Even if OKC doesn't win a title they are setup as well as a team can be for sustained success over a long period of time. We may not duplicate their success but we gave ourselves chances to get lucky in similar ways.

Tremendous Upside said:

As I've said before, many armchair GM types love and advocate full-on, scorched-earth tanking because it makes them feel superior, like they're playing emotionless 4D chess – they've evolved away from fandom into expertise.

They look down on the hordes of simple-minded basic fans who just want to see good basketball and cheer for as many wins as possible. "They don't see the big picture!!"

Click to expand...

Opinions are like assholes Everyone has one. Plus you're an ******* So there's that

Handlogten's Heros said:

Put it this way... there is no method of building that is able to withstand bad luck and there is no method of building that can have sustained success without some good luck.

Even if OKC doesn't win a title they are setup as well as a team can be for sustained success over a long period of time. We may not duplicate their success but we gave ourselves chances to get lucky in similar ways.

Click to expand...

OKC have set themselves up to have a continued window of success that could be 10-15 years They've also made a bunch of picks that haven't been good at all. Just goes to show how hard this all is and how luck is a big factor but if we do something even remotely like them i'm good with it. I'm so glad we're not just squeezing out honorable wins and scratching around just under .500

I'd be all for tanking if the season were like playing a game of 2k. You could sim thru the games, get to the draft, rebuild, and do the same in a month or whatever for many seasons.

But in reality....the next interesting thing about watching the Jazz, bar a trade, will be watching Ainge or whoever sit on the Lottery podium. Then the next interesting thing will be the draft, unless the Jazz get completely ****ed in the lottery like they usually do, then FA. The next season will arrive, and the same feeling of depression will kick in when the Jazz know they have to tank again.

Don't get me wrong, I do see the appeal of tanking. Maybe it does land you a championship player. But just as often it seems to land you in a cycle of suckage.

So yeah, it's mostly a time thing for me. Probably just a product of getting older. When I was in my 20s or 30s, a 5 year rebuild didn't seem that bad. Now it feels like I don't have many 5 year rebuilds in my life to waste. On the weird flip side it's also a ton of time. I used to love watching basketball, but I detest the 3 point chucking era. It's tolerable when the Jazz are good at least, but when it isn't, one of my favorite forms of entertainment that I could rely on for half the year has been neutered, and I'm becoming apathetic to a game and team I've watched religiously for a long time.

Handlogten's Heros said:

Put it this way... there is no method of building that is able to withstand bad luck and there is no method of building that can have sustained success without some good luck.

Even if OKC doesn't win a title they are setup as well as a team can be for sustained success over a long period of time. We may not duplicate their success but we gave ourselves chances to get lucky in similar ways.

Click to expand...

Fair enough, but the Jazz need to do the most important thing the Thunder did. Trade for a young guy who has superstar potential. If it requires trading Lauri, so be it, but some sort of swing would be nice to see.

AlaskanAssassin said:

My feelings exactly. I definitely can't watch NBA basketball if it's not the Jazz. They style today just isn't appealing to me.

I remember watching basketball as a teenager in the late 90s and getting excited when someone hit a 3-pointer. Now when Keyonte hits one I'm left wondering if he can hit 33% of them for the game.

Click to expand...

Basketball, just like baseball, has been ruined by analytics.

Nate505 said:

Fair enough, but the Jazz need to do the most important thing the Thunder did. Trade for a young guy who has superstar potential. If it requires trading Lauri, so be it, but some sort of swing would be nice to see.

Click to expand...

Doesn’t have to be exactly the same. Getting SGA was great but getting Chet and Jdub in the same draft was critical too. Lauri can be less than SGA and we can still hit big elsewhere.

Nate505 said:

I'd be all for tanking if the season were like playing a game of 2k. You could sim thru the games, get to the draft, rebuild, and do the same in a month or whatever for many seasons.

But in reality....the next interesting thing about watching the Jazz, bar a trade, will be watching Ainge or whoever sit on the Lottery podium. Then the next interesting thing will be the draft, unless the Jazz get completely ****ed in the lottery like they usually do, then FA. The next season will arrive, and the same feeling of depression will kick in when the Jazz know they have to tank again.

Don't get me wrong, I do see the appeal of tanking. Maybe it does land you a championship player. But just as often it seems to land you in a cycle of suckage.

So yeah, it's mostly a time thing for me. Probably just a product of getting older. When I was in my 20s or 30s, a 5 year rebuild didn't seem that bad. Now it feels like I don't have many 5 year rebuilds in my life to waste. On the weird flip side it's also a ton of time. I used to love watching basketball, but I detest the 3 point chucking era. It's tolerable when the Jazz are good at least, but when it isn't, one of my favorite forms of entertainment that I could rely on for half the year has been neutered, and I'm becoming apathetic to a game and team I've watched religiously for a long time.

Click to expand...

This is a good post

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk