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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

“Watch the games” isn’t an argument btw.


I get why people say “the potential the potential the potential” with Ace. But being taller doesn’t necessarily mean more potential. I think Ace can be all star so don’t twist my words, but I do think our understanding of potential is flawed. We hyper fixate on this idea of ceilings and floors….what we should really focus on is likelihood of high outcome.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
This is a legitimate question that I don't know the answer to: How likely is an off ball player in college to become an All Star?

I typically think of guys like Ace and VJ that don't play on ball to have lower upside. There aren't that many all stars who play off ball, for example. I haven't ever really looked at what the likelihood of an off ball guy in college becoming an on ball guy in the NBA.
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Some would argue that they are on ball players, tough to really define what that is like Cy said. When I did look at more objective measures like usage, about 30% of the highest usage in the NBA were <25% usage in college. So it’s more common to be a usage player when you were already a high usage player, duh….but I’d actually say that it’s a decent amount once you take away the obvious picks.

Harper and Flagg are obvious picks to be high usage guys, for example. What we really want to know is how to pick someone who is not as obvious that will become a high usage guy in the pros. Outside of the obvious, we have higher usage guys in college that aren’t as good (which makes them not obvious) or lower usage guys. There’s actually a decent split between those two groups.
 
KqWIN said:
“Watch the games” isn’t an argument btw.


I get why people say “the potential the potential the potential” with Ace. But being taller doesn’t necessarily mean more potential. I think Ace can be all star so don’t twist my words, but I do think our understanding of potential is flawed. We hyper fixate on this idea of ceilings and floors….what we should really focus on is likelihood of high outcome.
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i hope the bolded wasn't directed at me. I'm always careful not to go there. i just stated a simple fact, that unless one actually watches the games, it's nearly impossible to get a grasp on what kind of defender he (or anybody) is - especially on ball defender. that's just the reality. highlights, even if they attempt to show it, will never show a complete picture of how anybody plays defense. it's not even ace bailey or prospect specific - it's just a reality that if one wants to know how a dude defends, one has to watch their games.

in short, it's not an argument - just throwing it out there as many probably don't realize just how good he is on that end and how much effort he plays with on that side of the ball. just providing information that can't adequately be captured by looking at his stats.
 
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seattlejazzfan said:
i hope the bolded wasn't directed at me. I'm always careful not to go there. i just stated a simple fact, that unless one actually watches the games, it's nearly impossible to get a grasp on what kind of defender he is. that's just the reality. highlights, even if they attempt to show it, will never show a complete picture of how anybody plays defense. it's not even ace bailey or prospect specific - it's just a reality that if you want to know how a dude defends, you have to actually watch their games.
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Fair enough, I get the impression that when you said that if you watch the games you must come away with the same conclusion you did and/or agree with the post you were replying to....but that was an overstep by me. I understood what you were saying incorrectly.

As far as the Jazz actually drafting Bailey, I don't even think it's a question on if we will draft Bailey. I'm like 95% sure they would take him at 3. But I won't start thinking a player is better simply because the Jazz draft him. It would kind of make this entire thread pointless if we're just going to warm up to everything the FO does and not make our own judgements.
 
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KqWIN said:
Fair enough, I get the impression that when you said that if you watch the games you must come away with the same conclusion you did and/or agree with the post you were replying to....but that was an overstep by me. I understood what you were saying incorrectly.

As far as the Jazz actually drafting Bailey, I don't even think it's a question on if the will draft Bailey. I'm like 95% sure they would take him at 3. But I won't start thinking a player is better simply because the Jazz draft him. It would kind of make this entire thread pointless if we're just going to warm up to everything the FO does and not make our own judgements.
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i agree 100% with this. my comment about people warming up to him was poorly articulated.
 
1 - Flagg
2 - Harper
3 - Bailey
4 - Edgecomb
5 - Johnson

Jazz manage to not screw up these last 5 games and they’ll get at least one blue chip player/athlete to add to the roster.

After that, I’m hoping they can find a decent opportunity to trade up from the Minnesota pick and snag some value there as well.
 
One thing about VJ that gives me a lot of concern is that while he is a freak athlete, he is not shifty at all. He's not like a Mitchell or Wade who can really contort their bodies and have excellent footwork to get over and around defenders. I think this shows up as he attacks the basket and in his ball handling. He jumps like Wade and Mitchell, maybe even more explosive, but he "moves" like Suggs.
 
slc said:
What about seniors who have to go to NBA
Teams can get ready to play seniors at discount prices
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Unless somebody crazy falls to them (which I don’t see happening) they won’t have the roster spots available. Maybe you get a guy for a 2-way spot, but I’d probably just bet on your highest rated international guy.
 
I have
Flagg - Best Prospect since ...

Harper - I would not cry about Harper, but for some reason, his father's comments (I know he retracted them) bother me.
Ace - I am a huge ACE fan and I might put him above Harper.

VJ - Defense wins championships. Kinda waiting to see the measurements. Got stronger as the year went along. Very close to be added to the above group.
Johnson - He is a taller Clarkson. Could end up being one of the best prospects of this draft.
Jakučionis - I am still a fan and he is firmly #6 for me. I know he struggled later in the year but I still believe in what he can do.
 
Coach Ellis said:
1 - Flagg
2 - Harper
3 - Bailey
4 - Edgecomb
5 - Johnson

Jazz manage to not screw up these last 5 games and they’ll get at least one blue chip player/athlete to add to the roster.

After that, I’m hoping they can find a decent opportunity to trade up from the Minnesota pick and snag some value there as well.
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That is my order of preference as well. Though edgecomb and johnson are a toss up for me really.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Could you explain this a little more? Exactly what is being compared here?
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Only four freshman/sophomore players in college basketball since 2008 have accomplished all of these together in a season:

Offensive rating >114
Effective FG% >51%
TS% >57%
Assist % >27%
Free-throw rate >40

Harden
SGA
Morant

and Dylan Harper
 
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