If Lottery Rigging Exist, Aren't the Jazz Safe?

Now I know everyone's first thought is why would the NBA have an interest in helping the Utah Jazz of all teams. The Jazz are one of the smallest markets and often the buttend of jokes on podcast and national broadcast.

And you would be right, but helping the Jazz jump the lottery would help the league avoid the biggest possible headache, the Thunder getting another lottery pick and all the complaining that would come with it.

The Ainge Boys tell Silver we are going to compete and not do tank shenanigans. You scratch our back, we scratch yours

So if lottery rigging actually exist, the Jazz should be beneficiaries of it this year.

Copium. Just play TH and Cody.

I know im in the minority but I dont think the lottery is rigged. I think that when luck is involved sometimes luck, or bad luck, happens.

fishonjazz said:

I know im in the minority but I dont think the lottery is rigged. I think that when luck is involved sometimes luck, or bad luck, happens.

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You are not necessarily in the minority, almost 60% of Jazzfanz don't believe the lottery is currently rigged.

I posted this in another thread earlier today:

My theory is that we would do best to end outside the bottom 8. The league wouldn't want OKC to get our pick so they get even better, especially when they have the Clippers pick too, so they'll have to let us jump and pick top 4.

Don’t really believe the lottery is rigged, but then again…

League took heat last year over Luka trade and them winning. So they follow that up by having Utah grab the BYU guy from the back of the lottery?

Lottery rigging doesn't exist. That it does is just yet another garden-variety conspiracy theory.

People buy into "the lottery is rigged" for the same reason conspiracy theories catch on anywhere: it makes a chaotic world feel like it has a plan. When your team gets "screwed" by the ping pong balls, it's way more satisfying to believe the league orchestrated it than to accept you just got unlucky.

The rigged lottery theory hits all the psychological buttons. First, it provides a clear explanation rather than messy probability -- "they rig it for big markets and ratings" -- which is easier to grasp than understanding how the odds actually work. Second, it takes away that helpless feeling of getting burned by random chance and gives you back some control, like you've figured out what's really going on. And third, it makes you part of a select group that "sees through the BS" while everyone else is naive enough to believe the league is playing it straight.

The lottery becomes a perfect storm for the same psychological needs that fuel conspiracy theories everywhere else: people wanting certainty, wanting to feel less helpless, and wanting to be part of the select group that's in on the secret.

I dont think its rigged............ However I do think that they should prove that it isn't rigged by allowing us to watch the results live. Let us watch the lottery balls being distributed/drawn as it happens.

Look, I don't believe it is rigged either, but if it was, this would be an ethical rigging 29 of the 30 teams would rather see.

Saint Cy of JFC said:

Now I know everyone's first thought is why would the NBA have an interest in helping the Utah Jazz of all teams. The Jazz are one of the smallest markets and often the buttend of jokes on podcast and national broadcast.

And you would be right, but helping the Jazz jump the lottery would help the league avoid the biggest possible headache, the Thunder getting another lottery pick and all the complaining that would come with it.

The Ainge Boys tell Silver we are going to compete and not do tank shenanigans. You scratch our back, we scratch yours

So if lottery rigging actually exist, the Jazz should be beneficiaries of it this year.

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Yes. The Thunder are already getting the Clippers pick unprotected this year. I don't think the league wants to give OKC yet another top-10 pick to add to their 70-win team.

It was the same situation last year where the Thunder had the Sixers pick outside the top 6. It was predictable that the Sixers would retain their pick, either by moving up or by not moving back. (You can go back and look at my prediction that the Sixers would keep their pick one way or another.) So when Dallas and San Antonio moved up in the draft, the Sixers had to move up as well. The Jazz might be this year's version of the Sixers.

I'm afraid I'm a conspiracy theorist on this one. (Top lottery picks are some of the most valuable assets the league has, and they won't give them all out entirely by chance.) I'm expecting the league to help Dallas again, plus Brooklyn, and then make sure the Jazz retain their pick just so the Thunder don't run the tables on the league for the next 5 years.

Go ahead and bookmark this thread, and let's see how it shakes out.

I also think the Jazz are going to trade out Nurkic and Niang at the deadline. The story will be that we're not competitive enough to make the playoffs, so it's time to give out more developmental minutes to guys like Cody, Taylor, Walt, maybe even Tonje.

SoberasHotRod said:

You are not necessarily in the minority, almost 60% of Jazzfanz don't believe the lottery is currently rigged.

Thread 'Is the NBA Draft Lottery Rigged?'

Mar 24, 2025

I'm curious to see what Jazzfanzzers believe.

Here's a few things to chew on:

Inside Danny Ainge’s first-ever time in the NBA lottery drawing room

The Atlanta Hawks surprisingly got the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery and the Jazz dropped down to get the 10th pick.

www.deseret.com

Sarah Was In The Draft Lottery Room by Unsalvageable

So to a series of technical issues this episode is late.... BUT Sarah was in the lottery room, and we learn a lot about how it works. And also, it's funny! if you are Cooper Flagg or related to Cooper Flagg, DO NOT LISTEN! http://patreon.com/Unsalvageables All of this and more in the latest...

creators.spotify.com

Did Dikembe Mutombo reveal that the NBA Draft lottery is rigged?

Hint: maybe. Probably not.

web.archive.org

Luke Walton says Magic Johnson assured him the Lakers will keep their top 3 pick

And they did! Did Johnson know something we didn’t?

www.sbnation.com

...

• SoberasHotRod
• Replies: 48
• Forum: Utah Jazz

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You've buried the lede: 40% of Jazzfanz actually think the NBA lottery is rigged. That's both bonkers and discouraging. C'mon people, do better.

The jazz are supposed to know they are a farm team for big markets like new York or LA. if the NBA can screw the jazz they will.

Its rigged but I have to wait to see the outcome first so I can tell you how and why its rigged. Also, it will always be rigged against us unless they stop rigging it for a year. Us winning would be the reason they start rigging it again.

I believe it’s rigged. Too much smoke, too many improbable odds + head scratching shenanigans/scandals over the decades. And then the draft is done behind closed doors, then a show is presented as if it’s happening live. Nah, cynical me sees corruption everywhere. Gambling is the latest. And in interviews Silver looks opaque & filtered rather than transparent. Conspiracy theories are theories, so I lack the proof necessary to convince anyone who prefers the everything is above board narrative. But too many anomalies over decades betrays my confidence.


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the only saving grace here is that OKC owns our pick. if the league gives our pick to OKC they might never lose again. that would hurt big markets. the NBA will thus find a way to keep the pick away from OKC but not good enough to help the jazz. pick 7 on its way.

oldtimer said:

the only saving grace here is that OKC owns our pick. if the league gives our pick to OKC they might never lose again. that would hurt big markets. the NBA will thus find a way to keep the pick away from OKC but not good enough to help the jazz. pick 7 on its way.

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If you offered me the 7th pick right now I would take it.

As a gambler I subscribe more to the law of averages or gambler's fallacy type of thinking when it comes to a lottery.

Basically the Western Conference has won just about every lottery with a premiere #1 tier rated player since the AD draft.

Dallas won the Flagg lottery. San Antonio won the Wemby lottery. Minnesota won the Edwards lottery. New Orleans won the Zion lottery. Phoenix won the Luka lottery (and squandered the pick on Ayton although Lula still ended up in the WC).

Detroit did win the Cade lottery but Mobley and Green were rated as highly on some draft boards.

The last 4 years the WC added Wemby and Flagg. The EC added the likes of Risacher and Banchero as #1 picks.

At some point the law of averages will kick in and the EC will win the #1 pick in a big talent lottery. If the NBA really wants to "rig" it they probably need to send some young talent to the East especially if Giannis gets traded to the WC. With the Tatum injury who really is the biggest "name" in the EC this season?

As a Jazz fan I will be thrilled with a top 8 pick in the next draft and relieved when the entire OKC draft pick debacle is finally in the rear view mirror.

Looking at last season, where the Mavericks traded Luka to the Lakers for a sub-par return, followed by the Lakers franchise selling for a record $10 billion in the offseason, thereby raising the perceived value of all the league's franchises... Concurrently, Dallas falls apart, but acquires a new franchise cornerstone Cooper Flagg in the lottery with ~1% odds...

Let's just say that is a highly fortuitous turn of events for the league.

HeatCheck said:

As a gambler I subscribe more to the law of averages or gambler's fallacy type of thinking when it comes to a lottery.

Basically the Western Conference has won just about every lottery with a premiere #1 tier rated player since the AD draft.

Dallas won the Flagg lottery. San Antonio won the Wemby lottery. Minnesota won the Edwards lottery. New Orleans won the Zion lottery. Phoenix won the Luka lottery (and squandered the pick on Ayton although Lula still ended up in the WC).

Detroit did win the Cade lottery but Mobley and Green were rated as highly on some draft boards.

The last 4 years the WC added Wemby and Flagg. The EC added the likes of Risacher and Banchero as #1 picks.

At some point the law of averages will kick in and the EC will win the #1 pick in a big talent lottery. If the NBA really wants to "rig" it they probably need to send some young talent to the East especially if Giannis gets traded to the WC. With the Tatum injury who really is the biggest "name" in the EC this season?

As a Jazz fan I will be thrilled with a top 8 pick in the next draft and relieved when the entire OKC draft pick debacle is finally in the rear view mirror.

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There's a backstory to some of those lottery outcomes you've mentioned. For example, Lebron moved from Cleveland to LA, the NBA's #1 media market. That's a win-win for the league and for Lebron potentially. However, the Lakers' team isn't well put together and misses the playoffs in Lebron's first season there. Then Anthony Davis walks into the Pels' front office and demands a trade, specifically to the Lakers. After a standoff with the Pels front office, Davis gets suspended and puts the Pels franchise in a state of turmoil.

So what happens that offseason?

The Lakers move up in the draft lottery for the 4th time in a row (this time from the 11th lottery spot), landing a #4 pick that helps complete a trade package for the Lakers to acquire Anthony Davis. Now Lebron and Davis are united, putting the Lakers back in contention. Concurrently, the Pels receive the #1 pick, which gives them Zion Williamson to rebuild their team. The Lakers come out ahead. The league comes out ahead. And the crisis in New Orleans is more or less averted.

Does the league achieve this rosy outcome if 100% of the lottery is left to chance? It's improbable.