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If Lottery Rigging Exist, Aren't the Jazz Safe?

The jazz are supposed to know they are a farm team for big markets like new York or LA. if the NBA can screw the jazz they will.
 
Its rigged but I have to wait to see the outcome first so I can tell you how and why its rigged. Also, it will always be rigged against us unless they stop rigging it for a year. Us winning would be the reason they start rigging it again.
 
I believe it’s rigged. Too much smoke, too many improbable odds + head scratching shenanigans/scandals over the decades. And then the draft is done behind closed doors, then a show is presented as if it’s happening live. Nah, cynical me sees corruption everywhere. Gambling is the latest. And in interviews Silver looks opaque & filtered rather than transparent. Conspiracy theories are theories, so I lack the proof necessary to convince anyone who prefers the everything is above board narrative. But too many anomalies over decades betrays my confidence.


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the only saving grace here is that OKC owns our pick. if the league gives our pick to OKC they might never lose again. that would hurt big markets. the NBA will thus find a way to keep the pick away from OKC but not good enough to help the jazz. pick 7 on its way.
 
oldtimer said:
the only saving grace here is that OKC owns our pick. if the league gives our pick to OKC they might never lose again. that would hurt big markets. the NBA will thus find a way to keep the pick away from OKC but not good enough to help the jazz. pick 7 on its way.
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If you offered me the 7th pick right now I would take it.
 
As a gambler I subscribe more to the law of averages or gambler's fallacy type of thinking when it comes to a lottery.

Basically the Western Conference has won just about every lottery with a premiere #1 tier rated player since the AD draft.

Dallas won the Flagg lottery. San Antonio won the Wemby lottery. Minnesota won the Edwards lottery. New Orleans won the Zion lottery. Phoenix won the Luka lottery (and squandered the pick on Ayton although Lula still ended up in the WC).

Detroit did win the Cade lottery but Mobley and Green were rated as highly on some draft boards.

The last 4 years the WC added Wemby and Flagg. The EC added the likes of Risacher and Banchero as #1 picks.

At some point the law of averages will kick in and the EC will win the #1 pick in a big talent lottery. If the NBA really wants to "rig" it they probably need to send some young talent to the East especially if Giannis gets traded to the WC. With the Tatum injury who really is the biggest "name" in the EC this season?

As a Jazz fan I will be thrilled with a top 8 pick in the next draft and relieved when the entire OKC draft pick debacle is finally in the rear view mirror.
 
Looking at last season, where the Mavericks traded Luka to the Lakers for a sub-par return, followed by the Lakers franchise selling for a record $10 billion in the offseason, thereby raising the perceived value of all the league's franchises... Concurrently, Dallas falls apart, but acquires a new franchise cornerstone Cooper Flagg in the lottery with ~1% odds...

Let's just say that is a highly fortuitous turn of events for the league.
 
HeatCheck said:
As a gambler I subscribe more to the law of averages or gambler's fallacy type of thinking when it comes to a lottery.

Basically the Western Conference has won just about every lottery with a premiere #1 tier rated player since the AD draft.

Dallas won the Flagg lottery. San Antonio won the Wemby lottery. Minnesota won the Edwards lottery. New Orleans won the Zion lottery. Phoenix won the Luka lottery (and squandered the pick on Ayton although Lula still ended up in the WC).

Detroit did win the Cade lottery but Mobley and Green were rated as highly on some draft boards.

The last 4 years the WC added Wemby and Flagg. The EC added the likes of Risacher and Banchero as #1 picks.

At some point the law of averages will kick in and the EC will win the #1 pick in a big talent lottery. If the NBA really wants to "rig" it they probably need to send some young talent to the East especially if Giannis gets traded to the WC. With the Tatum injury who really is the biggest "name" in the EC this season?

As a Jazz fan I will be thrilled with a top 8 pick in the next draft and relieved when the entire OKC draft pick debacle is finally in the rear view mirror.
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There's a backstory to some of those lottery outcomes you've mentioned. For example, Lebron moved from Cleveland to LA, the NBA's #1 media market. That's a win-win for the league and for Lebron potentially. However, the Lakers' team isn't well put together and misses the playoffs in Lebron's first season there. Then Anthony Davis walks into the Pels' front office and demands a trade, specifically to the Lakers. After a standoff with the Pels front office, Davis gets suspended and puts the Pels franchise in a state of turmoil.

So what happens that offseason?

The Lakers move up in the draft lottery for the 4th time in a row (this time from the 11th lottery spot), landing a #4 pick that helps complete a trade package for the Lakers to acquire Anthony Davis. Now Lebron and Davis are united, putting the Lakers back in contention. Concurrently, the Pels receive the #1 pick, which gives them Zion Williamson to rebuild their team. The Lakers come out ahead. The league comes out ahead. And the crisis in New Orleans is more or less averted.

Does the league achieve this rosy outcome if 100% of the lottery is left to chance? It's improbable.
 
I went on record last year re: the Sixers. I'll go on record this year as well. The league has a vested interest in not giving the Thunder another top-10 pick when they're far-and-away the best team in the league and they're already going to receive the Clippers pick in the top 10.
 
Below is what I said last March in this thread --- https://jazzfanz.com/threads/is-the-nba-draft-lottery-rigged.226042/page-2#post-2514648
I just didn't think the league would be so brazen as to send Cooper Flagg to Dallas.
If you're the league, did you want the Thunder to add Derik Queen, Collin Murray-Boyles or Cedric Coward to their young championship team?
Same logic applies this year when the Thunder are already on track to get Karim Lopez, Jayden Quaintance or Koa Peat courtesy of the Clippers.

Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If we're talking about this year's draft, I wouldn't expect that the league cares where Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe or Tre Johnson end up. If they care about where a player goes, it will be Cooper Flagg, and it will be either an effort to get him to a big TV market so they can feature him in national game broadcasts, or get him to a franchise where they are confident that he can be successful (or both).

I wouldn't underestimate how significant Flagg is for the league as a TV product. He's the clear-cut #1 prospect, and he's the first white American elite prospect in I don't know how long. If the league thinks he can become "must-watch TV" for the casual fan, I could see them being tempted to tamper with where he goes.

The other thing I'd predict the league would be concerned about is the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are positioned to dominate the Western Conference for the next several years. Does the league want the Thunder to get another lottery pick from Philadelphia to add to their arsenal, or will the league make sure that the Sixers, who just had a dreadful season, keep their pick one way or another?

Then I guess the last question would be whether the situation in Dallas is so bad that the league has to give them a top-4 pick to get their fans to rekindle some hope for the future. But I'd kind of doubt that.
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