Yes, I know it is an issue.
Ace Bailey ROY watch
- Thread starter str8line
- Start date
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
a guy who shies away from contact might simply be who he is. but if during the next couple off seasons he puts in the work on his handle, just the ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the hoop (forcing guys to foul him whether he likes it or not) will make a massive difference.
right now his role is to catch and shoot because that's all he can do and he's really good at it. he's extremely hard to stop from shooting threes and catching and pulling up off those curl actions - his ability to get his shot without creating his shot is a big time ability. if shots are falling, defenses are at his mercy - but that's not how you get to the ft line.
right now his role is to catch and shoot because that's all he can do and he's really good at it. he's extremely hard to stop from shooting threes and catching and pulling up off those curl actions - his ability to get his shot without creating his shot is a big time ability. if shots are falling, defenses are at his mercy - but that's not how you get to the ft line.
framer
Well-Known Member
We have Lauri, Kessler, Key, and Cody on this team alone. All of these guys have changed their game from college considerably.
One comparison to make with this low of a FTr is current Mikal Bridges. In his smaller role for NYK the past two seasons he's had a terribly low FTr, but he's able to be a cut above league average because he shoots so well from the floor. 59% from 2FG and 37% from 3. I suppose Ace could get there, but that's a really unique case and the FTr is also the difference between NYK Bridges and peak PHX Bridges where he was more efficient.
I honestly think Mikal might be a good offensive comparison for Ace. He can be really good in a smaller role IF he becomes an very high efficiency shooter. If you give him a larger role he might be more like BKN Bridges, but I think that version of Mikal Bridges was the most overrated version.
I honestly think Mikal might be a good offensive comparison for Ace. He can be really good in a smaller role IF he becomes an very high efficiency shooter. If you give him a larger role he might be more like BKN Bridges, but I think that version of Mikal Bridges was the most overrated version.
You think people have the same expectations for Ace and Cody?
I don’t get the sense that he avoids contact because he’s soft….I do get the impression that he avoids contact because that’s what he was taught to do and that’s also what looks cool on highlights. I wouldn’t expect a major shift like this to happen overnight or even during a rookie season. But this is a big summer for him. I hope he stays with the Jazz/is around people who will direct him the right way.
My assumption has always been that FTR increases with experience and it's not something I typically worry about with young players. I tried finding some data online to see if that was true, but couldn't find anything. I went to NBA.com and first looked at the median FTA/100 Possessions (I don't think NBA.com has FTR) per draft year. Here's what I found:
So the median free throw rate does appear to increase over time. It looks like there is an increase for the first 5-7 years and then it plateaus. It's possible that this increase is due to players who stick in the league are better at getting to the free throw line so that the median is increased. So I looked at the FTA/100 possessions for the 9 players in the league that were drafted in 2013 and then averaged their free throw rate by years in the league and here is what I found.
The same trend continues, so I'm pretty comfortable at saying that free throw rate improves over experience level, but it's also probably true that for the average player it doesn't improve by that much.
So the median free throw rate does appear to increase over time. It looks like there is an increase for the first 5-7 years and then it plateaus. It's possible that this increase is due to players who stick in the league are better at getting to the free throw line so that the median is increased. So I looked at the FTA/100 possessions for the 9 players in the league that were drafted in 2013 and then averaged their free throw rate by years in the league and here is what I found.
The same trend continues, so I'm pretty comfortable at saying that free throw rate improves over experience level, but it's also probably true that for the average player it doesn't improve by that much.
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I would not say my concern is Ace improving his FTr over time. I am confident it will. The concern is more about how about how much it will improve and what that means for his chances of being an efficient player. It’s more about where he’ll end up instead of whether or not it improves.
PS: Just a nitpick, but FTr is probably the better measure here instead of FTA/100.
Ok so the bar should be lower because the perceived ceiling is lower? Makes no sense.
Bar is the same, its them becoming NBA players. One looks the part other doesnt.
fishonjazz
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I think 2 things are true. He shies away from contact and is horrible at drawing fouls AND his role in the offense is such that keeps him from contact and the free throw line.
Does Svi go to the line a lot?
Yeah that’s exactly right. The bar for concern/praise should be different when you have different expectations for players. If Key started playing like a backup PG I’d be concerned. If Collier did the same I’d be pretty excited. That does not mean I think they are the same level of player and directly implies the opposite.