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14th Tank Platoon

UGLI baby said:
But the percentages never lie.

The problem with your theory is that while yes, teams 4-9 often jump, we don't have picks 4-9, we have one specific pick. Can you guess in any given year which pick will jump into the top 3?

What are the odds of you being able to correctly guess the exact pick that will jump? Whatever the listed percentage odds for that pick are.

There is no other discussion or debate about it.

#Math
Click to expand...

ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.
 
Hack said:
ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.
Click to expand...

You don't understand math, I didn't read.
 
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