La Gesse: Barnes should turn pro now
By Bobby La Gesse
Sports Editor
Published: Sunday, April 3, 2011 12:11 AM CDT
Harrison Barnes only needs to make one phone call when it comes to his NBA future.
Dial Craig Brackins.
Brackins will tell Barnes after a standout sophomore season, when Brackins burst onto the national scene by scoring 20.2 points and grabbing 9.5 rebounds, he was projected to be a lottery pick in 2009.
He returned to school. Defenses focused on him more. It was tougher for him to get good looks. His draft status dropped, and he went No. 21 in last year’s draft.
And it cost him money.
There really shouldn’t be much debate about Barnes decision. He needs to turn pro.
Barnes, who averaged 15.7 points and 5.8 rebounds at North Carolina this season, is projected to be a top-five pick by most draft experts if he comes out. A top-five pick in last year’s draft was guaranteed at worst, nearly $6 million.
That is too much money to pass up. That’s the kind of money creates financial security. That kind of money makes living the rest of your life a lot easier.
Really, it’s a decision a teenager shouldn’t have to make.
In an ideal world Barnes’ NBA decision comes down to if he’s ready to play pro ball yet. (And he certainly could use at least one more year of seasoning at North Carolina).
But that’s now how the NBA draft operates. It’s more about potential than production. It’s also about maximizing your own value.
Turning pro is more of a financial decision today than anything else. If Barnes doesn’t turn pro he could be making a huge fiscal mistake.
And he needs someone to tell him this.
The basic rule of thumb is if a player is a guaranteed lottery pick he should turn pro.
Brackins didn’t and he lost money because of it. If he went, say No. 11 in 2009, he would have signed a two-year, $4.2 million contract. Instead he got a two-year, $2.7 million contract a year later.
He lost more than $1.5 million. And that doesn’t include any additional money Brackins would lose if team options are picked up in the third and fourth years of both deals.
Same thing happened to Joakim Noah. Noah was the consensus No. 1 pick if he came out in 2007. He went back to Florida and fell to No. 9 in the draft the next year.
Yes, it worked out for Noah, who recently signed a $60 million contract extension with Chicago. But Noah is the exception, not the rule.
The NBA is littered with Chase Budinger’s and Josh McRobert’s, guys who were projected lottery picks at one point, but by the time they came out went in the second round. Or guys like Tyler Hansbrough, who watched their stock slip by staying in college as long as they did.
A players NBA draft status is a lot like the early stages of a relationship. You decide to ask someone out because there are plenty of things you like about them. But as you spend more time with them you see their faults and it may turn you off on them.
The longer a player stays in college the more problems NBA personnel find with your game.
With Barnes, the love started this year. People noticed his intelligence, hustle, his ability to take, and make big shots.
But if he returns, Barnes’ athleticism, which isn’t NBA elite, or his defense, which needs to improve, will get more attention.
And his draft position could fall.
It’s hard for Barnes to move up any more in the draft. History says players are much more likely to fall down a draft board than hold their position.
If that happens, Barnes could lose a lot more money than Brackins did.
Yes, Barnes could take out an insurance policy and return to North Carolina and enjoy college for another.
But why should he when the risk is just too great.
