2013 free agency a let down?
- Thread starter Bodhi
- Start date
The big difference between those guys and a guy like Harden (assuming he doesn't completely crumble in the next year), is:
-Gay's OWN TEAM leveraged against themselves in order to avoid having him hit the market as a RFA
-The Hawks were in a corner
-The Magic were desperate for a stretch 4, and Rashard Lewis never brought much more to the table than that (despite being very productive)
Maybe Burks lights it up this year and/or Harden crumbles, but if you can improve your odds at shoring up a position and obtain an asset, you do it. If Harden does what he did last year (sans finals performance), that's still a max contract at net positive market-value, IMO.
Number one priority for this franchise is finding a young PG to build with at this stage. Mo Williams is a pretty huge improvement from The Incredible Sulk (AT LEAST in terms of fit), but he's still about a decade older than The Four. That's not going to cut it. If that means going after Curry, or if that means leveraging your 2013 cap space to trade for that player, then do it. But it should be priority one for the organization.
vslice02
Well-Known Member
Yeah I do think it can work out to overpay a non-top-12 player if that player turns out to be the difference-maker who gets you over the hump...such as a team that already has a strong frontcourt and talented complementary wings but lacks a go-to perimeter scorer to finish games.
My one reservation when evaluating Harden as a max-guy is...IMO he's a 2 who has to get his own shot off the dribble from outside the 3pt line (where he gets a running start in high-screen roll and drive/weaves his way through the defense or pullup w/his midrange game)... and that's something playoff defenses will key on and take away when you're the #1-option. If he can add a facet to his game where he can face-up and iso from 18-feet - or if he can play off another talented big such as Favors (i.e. the Manu-role w/a Duncan post-presence) I think he definitely would be worth making a strong push for. Again, this is mostly nitpicking on Harden - but if you're offering someone $58 mil over 4 yrs I think their game should be scrutinized quite heavily.
"agreed" to all 3 posts.
This.
Park Bites
Well-Known Member
My point is to many things can change in the next year to determine what the jaz. Will do next summer let alone anyone else.
extending Millsap and that too at 10 mil per should NOT be the priority. Rather Millsap to me is perfect trade bait. The guy is ideally a bench player, he gets sorted out quickly in playoffs and can never have offense run through him as a starting PF when his team is trying to contend. In other words, a role player. I dont think paying him 10 mil is prudent especially if you are a small market team. Only if Kanter flounders and if Millsap continues to improve his re-signing becomes a need
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
I agree. The fact Favors and Hayward both have enough respect to be invited to the USA Select team speaks volumes (despite the odd inclusion of Greg Steinsma and Lance Thomas). Those two are going to get big contracts. Hibbert and Brook Lopez are now MAX players. Look at the offer Asik got as a backup. Teams are desperate for bigs. Favors ain't gonna be cheap to re-sign. As for Hayward, maybe look at Batum for comparison. Then a year later you'll have to pay for Burks and Kanter. Alec probably gets a vey nice deal. Kanter is developing slower, but again, bigs are always overpaid so he wont be cheap. Or if he is, it probably means he didn't develop much and we'd be signing him as the 4th big.
Utah can never rely on a "Big-3" model. Even IF the Jazz could get three near MAX-deserving players (asssume 3 of the draft picks develop), we're not going to have FA's like Allen, Lewis, etc. deciding to play for the vet minimum to play in Utah. I think the route KOC has mapped out is the ONLY way Utah can have a shot - i.e. a more balanced team with no weak links. Favors certainly looks like he'll develop into a dominant big. And there's no denying Hayward is a unique talent; he just needs to develop consistency and step up a couple of facets of his overall game. Around those two, add 3 solid starters and 3 solid backups (for a "Core-8"):
To be honest, I just don't see the Jazz trading Jefferson for anything but equal expirings and a pick. That may not even be possible. I think the more likely scenario is to just let his contract expire. A couple of key decisions will need to be made re: Millsap and Marvin Williams. Keep both and there is still room for another vet or two on a 1 or 2-yr deal. But once the big 4 rookie contracts are up (Favors, Hayward, Kanter and Burks), if we also have Millsap and a good SF under contract (like Marvin Williams) and a veteran PG (Mo?), there will only be room for players on rookie contracts or cheap veterans.
But that's not necessarily bad. Jazz probably have two firsts next year and perhaps trade Jefferson for an additional one. And with those picks, we need a PG and 4th big. Utah wll still have a good mix of young players and vets.
In sum, the 2013 FA market may really come down to a decisioon on re-signing Millsap (if he WILL accept $10M/per), keeping Mo Williams and deciding whether or not to extend Marvin. Keep those three and the Jazz probably make no other significant moves. If the Jazz lose any of those three, then they can spend up to $8-$10M each on their replacements.
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spycam1
Well-Known Member
If we do keep all four of The Core, Millsap, Marvin, and Mo, then you're probably right. Good thing we have that GS pick--it could land us that young PG we need (Kabongo?), while also working with our cap situation.
Great thread, btw.
Yes and from this I do see the structure or plan that KOC is working off. Sign a group of 'proven vets' at a reasonable rates (less than $8-9m per year) and hoping that the CORE of your young players become All Stars or fringe All Stars.
Proven Vets
He has over the years gathered a group of proven vets (Millsaps, Mo, Marv) - who are basically in the top 20-50 NBA players (i.e., non-All Stars but proven players). He'll look to sign these players up for a reasonable rate.
Potential All Stars
Then - he's expecting at least 1-2 of our lottery picks to turn into fringe-NBA All Stars (Favors, Burks). And I do think that in a couple of years, there's a good chance Favors & Burks could potentially turn into fringe-All Stars.
Listen - we can never count on big time FAs signing up with us. But with this plan - we can somehow get a decent product on court (making Millers happy) and potentially the team becomes good enough to win some games, even go all the way 1 year if we catch fire.
Moreover, if we become a decent/potential contender, then MAY BE a big time FA may want to sign with us. But makes no mistakes - KOC is not counting on that.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Well-stated, Hotttnickkk.
But you missed Hayward in that group of Potential All Stars.
But you missed Hayward in that group of Potential All Stars.
Yes - intentionally.
I think he'll be a great glue-guy type player. But unless he starts sinking those 3pts on a consistent basis (PROVE ME WRONG GORDY!), then I don't see him in that conversation.
Favors has that length and defensive ability (Hibbert?). Burks doesn't rely on his shot to become an impact player (OK, may be at least a mid range game).
If I'd had to put my money on it (more than $500) then I'd have to say Favors & Burks.
billyshelby
Well-Known Member
A very interesting question because the 13 class isn't wildly exciting for our purposes since it doesn't contain an elite PG we could get. I would have no problem "wasting" our 13 cap space provided the goal was to hit 14 with roughly the same cap space capital we were going to have in 13. That's why I wouldn't mind a Pau acquisition hypothetically. And I've reversed my stance on Iggy for the same reason. Those guys are assets and good players.
But the big caveat would be that KOC not take on multiyear contracts past 14 outside the guys we resign.
But the big caveat would be that KOC not take on multiyear contracts past 14 outside the guys we resign.
I'm not too smart, so my query is sincere .. does it change anything if '14 is just as weak on PG's? (there's a couple great ones, but it too, is weak in depth.
billyshelby
Well-Known Member
I haven't looked at the class yet so you may be right. I would only say this: In 2 full seasons, there's likely to be somebody who appears weak now but unexpectedly develops. You could make the same argument for 13 I suppose since guys like Lin and Dragic will be getting paid and they were on nobody's radar in 12. But the extra year is preferable if your scouting says that the 13 potential breakouts are weak. Not to mention, a 14 guy could get his opportunity this year and you'd have an extra year of data to evaluate.
I of course agree with all of that .. but I thought it was worth mentioning that all of 12, 13, and 14, I've been projecting as weak for a few years now.
Bodhi asked that I mentioned this, hope it was relevant.
billyshelby
Well-Known Member
Very relevant and scouting is key. But my big thing is we have 2 years until the first expensive resignings in Hayward/Favors. Therefore waiting until 14 is fine, especially since runs at both Favors and Hayward are likely that summer.
The fly in the ointment is we won't have a starting PG signed in 13. And getting a quality one year rental in that department is tough. So my guess is KOC isn't going to wait. But it's an option if he can figure out how to patch that hole which is the beauty of cap space.
framer
Well-Known Member
Having a competitive to very good team, with multiple young tradeable assets, and a bucketload of cap space will NEVER fall out of fashion. Keep in mind that one or two of those MAX stars could already be on the team. I would almost guarantee that Favors will be a MAX guy, just on the Hibbert deal. Also keep in mind that the new CBA will make the situation the Jazz will be in even more important. We could even shuttle in Marvin Williams type players on expirings until we find one that sticks. The trick is that we have a very solidified Big rotation for the next few years with options aplenty. PG is the only position that we should be worried about, and if the rest of the team pans out, all we need is a distributer that can keep the defense honest with an occasional 3. Those kind of guys can be found at a reasonable price. Competent bigs, not so much.
I like where we are at, even if we don't get Harden.
I like where we are at, even if we don't get Harden.