2014 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round
- Thread starter spycam1
- Start date
Bet?
Yeah but even if Millsap hit 2 in a row to make it a 1 point game,
a) you can control who getts to the charity stripe for you
b) The other team has something like 6 seconds to dribble it up the court and take some 15% look instead of a 35% look after 3 successful screens to tie it.
Care to explain why?
The scenario was something like Millsap getts the inbound with 6.9 left. Millsap stepped out to the 3 point line with around 4.5 sec left. That's when you foul in this scenario.
Millsap hits both, ATL is +1. Pacers will try to intercept inbound but have to foul right away if it fails. ATL getts free throws with 4 sec left. Whoever they wanted to get the ball to getts 2 shots and misses both. Clock starts ticking, Pacers get the rebound with 3.5 left and now they have to get the ball up front as far as possible and send a prayer from midcourt most likely. That's a way worse shot than most systems you can run for good looks on an inbound play with 7 secs left.
That's how I'd do it. And I bet I'd be right in 90% of the time with that decision. If you go for defense and give up a better shot you have overtime in at least 25% of the scenarios.
No guarantee the guy you want gets the free throws. Could be 2nd or 3rd option - i.e. Paul George, who had just missed two.
Also, I'm not sure about the whole inbound at halfcourt thing, but wouldn't the Hawks be able to get the ball at halfcourt after calling a timeout? Plus, there was John Wall getting three free throws on a 3/4 quarter shot last night, which makes it a little more frightening to foul.
That being said, I think it's a good strategy. Certainly works way more often than the other one. The only reason I can see why coaches don't do it is because increases the possibility of losing in regulation by, maybe, 1%. A statistically insignificant number, but coaches don't really see it that way I suppose.
This strategy is practiced in the NBA doe. Not sure why you haven't ever seen it done.